Updated 01.11.22 @ 7:30a
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Category: GFS
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/11/video-cold-open-to-january-tracking-a-couple-of-moisture-starved-systems-locally/
Jan 10
VIDEO: Cold Open To The Work Week; Wintry Pattern Evolution Into The 2nd Half Of January…
Updated 01.10.22 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/10/video-cold-open-to-the-work-week-wintry-pattern-evolution-into-the-2nd-half-of-january/
Jan 08
Cold, Wintry Pattern Settling In For The 2nd Half Of January…
Updated 01.08.22 @ 4:35p
While we’re dealing with our own wintry precipitation this afternoon, snow lovers continue to wait for the first big event of the season. Watching 2 snow storms blow by to our south over the past week was an added sting.
Patience may very well be rewarded as we navigate the second half of the month as a classic wintry pattern carves itself out over the eastern portion of the country.
The GFS was first to key in on this pattern evolution, and now, today, the European is finally seeing the light (shown below). What makes this pattern different is the likelihood of high latitude blocking (courtesy of a negative arctic oscillation) which will help the regime sustain itself. On that note, it’s been my experience that the GFS does better handling AO transitions from positive to negative and was the primary reason we leaned on the GEFS earlier this week. Run to run consistency was also another player.
November and December failed to produce teleconnections that were aligned for cold, but that should change as we push towards mid month. This is ultimately a byproduct of the primary driver- the MJO rumbling into Phase 8 (finally). As the AO goes negative, the EPO should follow suit. Unlike in December, the PNA should also be in a much more favorable state for persistent eastern cold.
The idea here is that the majority (if not all) of the second half of January will feature below to well below average temperatures and multiple opportunities for “more meaningful” snow- whether it be from a series of Clippers, a more classic panhandle cross-country winter storm (example pictured below), or a combination of both.
At the very least, it’s certainly not a boring pattern, and for the first time this season, it appears as if we’ll be able to lock this cold in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/08/cold-wintry-pattern-settling-in-for-the-2nd-half-of-january/
Jan 03
VIDEO: Keeping Close Eyes On Thursday…
Updated 01.03.22 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/03/video-keeping-close-eyes-on-thursday/
Dec 01
Welcome To December: Things Begin To Grow More Interesting With Each Passing Day…
Updated 12.01.21 @ 7:40a
In the short-term, we have to deal with a fast moving system that will deliver rain to central parts of the state through the 1st half of the day. Most of the measurable rain will be off to our southeast after lunchtime.
A breezy warm-up will take place Thursday, helping boost temperature all the way into the lower 60s for several central Indiana neighborhoods- not bad at all for December 2nd, huh?!
Mostly dry weather will prevail across immediate central Indiana into the 1st half of the weekend. Similar to last week, we’ll note systems flying by to our north, but most, if not all, of these features will remain just to our north.
Moisture will return by Sunday as a rather widespread rain builds into the state ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, a punch of colder air will flow into the Ohio Valley as we open the work week.
That will then potentially set us up for more interesting times from a wintry perspective for the next system (targeting next Tuesday). We note, to no surprise, 6 days out, differences with the model guidance. Things range from a healthy winter storm (GFS solution) to an all rain event (European solution). We will keep close eyes. Timing will have to be perfect for the system to take advantage of the colder airmass flowing into the region early next week behind the front, especially without a favorable position from the high to our north (that would be able to continue funneling in colder air as the low pressure system moves through the region). Stay tuned.
If that wasn’t enough to keep us busy over the coming several days, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is once again trying to show some life. Note how the amplitude carries things into Phase 6 and 7 towards mid-month. While Phase 6 is a very warm phase (compared to normal), major changes take place with Phase 7 as more widespread and meaningful cold air takes hold.
There’s no denying the warmth associated with Phase 6 and unfavorable teleconnections in the short-term (shown below), but it’ll be mighty interesting to see if data starts trending colder towards mid-month if we can get things into Phase 7.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/01/welcome-to-december-things-begin-to-grow-more-interesting-with-each-passing-day/
Oct 19
VIDEO: Weak System Passes Thursday; Weekend Challenges…
Updated 10.19.21 @ 7:44a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/19/video-weak-system-passes-thursday-weekend-challenges/
Oct 01
VIDEO: Cut Off Low Keeps Things Unsettled At Times This Weekend Into Next Week…
Updated 10.01.21 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/01/video-cut-off-low-keeps-things-unsettled-at-times-this-weekend-into-next-week/
Sep 26
Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…
Updated 09.26.21 @ 11:14a
Forecast Period: 09.26.21 through 10.03.21
A very quiet weather pattern will dominate the 7-day forecast period. Plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures can be expected through the early and middle part of the work week before we cool closer to normal late in the period. While there’s plenty of disagreement, the GFS is a little more bullish on bringing in a weak storm system late in the period that could* produce a few showers Friday. If this does, indeed, take shape, it only appears as if we’re looking at 0.10″ to 0.25″ type rainfall. We’ll keep an eye on things. Otherwise, it’s a dry and very uneventful stretch ahead over the upcoming 7 days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/26/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-4/
Sep 18
Those Special College Football Saturdays Return: Rolling Into A More Fall-Like Weather Pattern…
Updated: 09.18.21 @ 1a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/18/those-special-college-football-saturdays-return-rolling-into-a-more-fall-like-weather-pattern/
Aug 23
VIDEO: Heat, Humidity, And Tracking Storm Complexes In The Week Ahead…
Updated 08.23.21 @ 9a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/08/23/video-heat-humidity-and-tracking-storm-complexes-in-the-week-ahead/