Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

ECMF_phase_51m_small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

A Lot To Discuss…

Good evening, friends!  As promised, there’s a lot on the weather menu over the course of the upcoming several days.  Let’s get right into the details.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 3a-12p for all of the region to account for the sleet and freezing rain situation we’ll deal with late tonight into the first half of Tuesday.  We still expect significant travel issues and overall impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.

Forecast radar shows freezing rain spreading into the region between 3 and 4am.

1Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue for the better part of the morning hours as temperatures likely won’t climb above freezing until early Tuesday afternoon, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast.

Forecast temperatures at 12p Tuesday.

hires_t2m_indy_24We still don’t anticipate many big time flooding concerns as a.) temperatures won’t warm all that much (we MAY reach 40 Tuesday evening, but that’s a big question mark) and b.) most of the heavy rain will remain south of central Indiana.

Here’s expected liquid-equivalent totals through Wednesday morning.

2The next concern is the threat of accumulating snow for central and southern portions of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Arctic high pressure will limit the northern extent of significant precipitation, but, as mentioned previously, energy rounding the base of the trough will ignite another wave of low pressure to move along the pressing arctic front.  As of now, we target areas along and south of the I-70 corridor most under the gun for a potentially impactful snow storm Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

3The individual GFS ensemble members have also been trending north and overall more excited about snow prospects, as well.

7The other item on the agenda is a shot of record cold in here for late week.  Sub-zero lows are a good bet by Friday morning.  Highs Thursday will push for a new record low maximum temperature.

4