Category: GFS

Oct 09

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

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A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

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We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/

Oct 07

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) We posted our weekly outlook last night and this can be found below.  An active weather pattern continues.  2.) A cold front will move through the region later this evening. As a result, showers and embedded thunder will be around into the afternoon hours before drier, cooler air builds in tonight behind the front.  Forecast radar shows rain and embedded storm chances continuing into the afternoon:

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3.) Wednesday looks like the pick of the week with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool temperatures.  4.) Rain and storm chances return as early as Thursday into Friday.  5.) Friday stands to be quite an ugly day with rain chances and a new push of unseasonably chilly air.  A big thermal fight will be in place Friday as portions of northern Indiana don’t make it out of the 40s while temperatures across far southern areas of the state go into the 70s.  More specific to our region, look for falling daytime temperatures starting in the upper 50s.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/07/tuesday-morning-rambles/

Oct 06

Weekly Outlook: Active And Cool!

Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).

Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days.  The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday.  This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.

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After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday.  Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.

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Saturday is a tough call at this point.  The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.

Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.

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7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model.  Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″.  The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.

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Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.

Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…

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Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region.  Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)!  Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).

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Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region…  BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October.  Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/

Oct 01

Well-Advertised Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.

First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.

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We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.  We’ll continue to monitor things closely.  Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.

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We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.

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Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.

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The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night.  A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).

By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/01/well-advertised-major-changes-waiting-on-deck/

Sep 28

Weekly Outlook: Pleasant, But Big Changes Hit Late Week…

– What a beauty of a Sunday evening underway! Temperatures across the Ohio Valley and Mid West are running 15°-20° above where we’d expect them. The recent dry, warm stretch…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/28/weekly-outlook-pleasant-but-big-changes-hit-late-week/

Sep 21

Weekly Outlook: Cool Start, Mild Finish

A secondary cold front is moving into central Indiana this afternoon with clouds, gusty northerly breezes, and fresh cool air. Speaking of cool, September, so far, has been cooler and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/21/weekly-outlook-cool-start-mild-finish/

Sep 16

Catching Up On A Tuesday Evening…

Several interesting weather items are on the docket and each will have to be dealt with as they come over the course of the upcoming 7 days.  Some of the headlines include a brief warm-up Saturday, weekend rain that could include a tropical connection Sunday, and another big shot of October-like chill next week.

While we have a few more days of below normal temperatures in front of us, we eye at least one day where temperatures will manage to climb above normal and that’s Saturday.  All indications still suggest we’ll be very close, if not a degree or two higher, than the 80 degree mark along with a nice southwest air flow in place Saturday.  All-in-all, it’ll be a great day to take care of any early-autumn yard work that’s needing to get done.

Changes brew Sunday as a cold front draws near.  This is where questions lie and they actually have to do with Tropical Storm Odile (currently all the way to our southwest over the central Baja California peninsula region).  Odilemoisture

While the GFS and European forecast models still aren’t interested in “welcoming” Odile’s moisture into the region, we note the Canadian model does suggest some tropical moisture, courtesy of Odile, gets entangled along the front Sunday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things and monitor the forecast data accordingly moving forward through the back half of the work week.

 

The other item of interest has to do with yet another big blast of autumn air that will have things feeling very much like October around these parts come early next week.  The above average temperatures Saturday will hang around just for the day as yet another unseasonably chilly air mass moves into the area Monday into Tuesday of next week as a significant trough develops over the east with an impressive western ridge in place.  f156

 

Note the GEFS and Canadian show the return of the unseasonable chill next week.  Keep those jackets handy.  Early indications would suggest this type air mass is plenty capable of highs in the upper 50s/ lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/ lower 40s during the height of the chill (most likely Tuesday).  Stay tuned…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/16/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening/

Sep 07

Nice Now, But Stormier Times Loom…

What a beautiful Sunday underway across central Indiana. We made the suggestion earlier today to get outside and watch the opening Sunday of NFL if at all possible (btw, we…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/07/nice-now-but-stormier-times-loom/

Sep 04

Hot And Humid Before A Big Weekend Cool Down…

Thr.

Fri.

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65/ 87

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59/ 73

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Watching Storms To Our Northwest This Morning…Today is a bit of a tricky forecast.  A complex of showers and thunderstorms is tracking through northern Illinois this morning and we’ll monitor this area of showers and storms in the event it begins to shift south of a due east track.  Additionally, outflow boundaries from this complex may trigger additional development of showers and thunderstorms later today.  Best rain/ storm chances should remain across northern Indiana, but we’ll keep an eye on things.  With all of that said, we think most folks here across central Indiana will remain rain-free, including lots of sunshine today.

Cold Front Ushers In A Much Cooler Weekend…A cold front will move through the region early Saturday morning. Ahead of this boundary, a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely blow through central Indiana Friday night.  We continue to fine tune timing, but thinking at this point highlights 8p to 1a Friday night and Saturday morning (we’ll “tighten” that time line up later tonight).

A few left over showers are possible into Saturday along with a MUCH cooler, fall-like, feel that will continue into next week!

Big Blast Of Cool Air Mid Month…Good model agreement remains on a big blast of cool air blowing in later next week.  Once again, rain and storms will remain in the forecast as the strong cold front blows through.  Behind the boundary, some truly chilly air would arrive… More details to come as we move forward, but it may be a good idea to go ahead and pull those jackets and sweaters out if you haven’t already.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
GEFS temperature anomalies over the next two weeks show the 1-2 punch of cool air coming. Time to think about pulling out those jackets!

GEFS temperature anomalies over the next two weeks show the 1-2 punch of cool air coming. Time to think about pulling out those jackets!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/04/hot-and-humid-before-a-big-weekend-cool-down/

Sep 02

Improving Weather Through The Day…

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67/ 80

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Decreasing Rain Coverage; Increasing Sunshine…A shield of moderate to heavy rain encompassed the state during the overnight.  This shield of rain is slowly moving east, southeast and we’ll be looking at improving weather through the day.  There’s still the chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm late morning or early afternoon as a frontal boundary slides through the region.

Sunny Days…As we progress through the mid and late week stretch, we’ll enjoy dry skies and plentiful sunshine.  Normal lows and highs are in the lower 60s and lower 80s this time of year, so we’ll be very close to that Wednesday before moderating temperatures take us warmer than average to wrap up the work week.

Late Week Cold Front; Autumn Feel This Weekend…A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass Friday evening and lead to the possibility of a broken line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.  A MUCH cooler air mass will then invade the region behind the boundary, leading to a true fall-like feel this weekend!

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sent us this beautiful sunrise photo Saturday morning before storms invaded portions of central Indiana.  Thanks, John!

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Are you craving cooler air to go along with that early season pumpkin spice latte? You'll be in luck this weekend as a true fall-like air mass invades...

Are you craving cooler air to go along with that early season pumpkin spice latte? You’ll be in luck this weekend as a true fall-like air mass invades…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/02/improving-weather-through-the-day/

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