May 21
Just a quick update here this morning before we post our updated 7-day later this evening. Forecast models are trending drier for the weekend, which is sure to put big…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/21/a-word-on-the-weekend/
May 19
Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/19/chilly-now-continuing-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-sunday/
Apr 29
Highlights:
A vigorous upper level low will pivot through the Ohio Valley Thursday. This will provide the threat of a shower really at any point through the day. Unseasonably cool air and a gusty wind will also be in place. This will be a brief set back from what, otherwise, is a full-blown burst into spring/ early summer type weather over the weekend into next week.
We’ll keep a very close eye on the placement of a ridge to our southeast early next week as this will mean the difference between a mostly dry and warmer pattern and one that could, potentially, be periodically stormy. As things stand now, models are trending drier, with the so-called “ring of fire” pattern placed just north of central Indiana. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Simulated radar (above) shows scattered showers dotting the region Thursday, thanks to a potent upper low moving through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably chilly air (forecast highs in the mid/ upper 50s shown below) and gusty winds will also accompany this system. Rainfall amounts will be light for most and generally under one tenth of an inch.
Our weather early next week will largely depend on the strength and placement of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast region. Models today have trended drier for our immediate region and, as such, we’ll follow suit with our forecast above. That said, we note models can struggle with the precise details of these patterns in the mid range and things could trend back towards the direction of stormier times. Stay tuned.
Regardless of storm chances next week, temperatures will be drastically warmer than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple weeks. Ensembles (below) show the warmer than average pattern engulfing the region and a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/29/cool-and-showery-thursday-full-blown-spring-warmth-ahead/
Apr 20
Highlights:
Surface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN. Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing. It’s a gusty day and that will continue. Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers. Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period. The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday. Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track. Stay tuned.
Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.
The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend. The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.
Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends. After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/20/heading-the-wrong-direction/
Apr 14
Not As Bad As It May Look…Most of the day Wednesday will feature dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. Moisture will stream in from the south Wednesday evening and nighttime showers will develop across central Indiana, continuing into Thursday (though we can also expect several dry hours).
Friday will also feature mostly dry conditions, but we’ll maintain a mention of a widely scattered shower. Overall, increasing sunshine and a southerly air flow will help boost temperatures into the lower 70s Friday.
The weekend features lots of questions as two of our more trusted computer models are in totally different camps as of this evening. The European suggests dry and warm conditions (a great weekend, weather-wise) will rule; however, the GFS model is more unsettled and cooler. For now we’ll take a blend of the two, leaning more towards the GFS due to better run-to-run consistency. Stay tuned as updates will be required.
Cooler air will become the story as we open next week and jackets may be needed Tuesday with a gusty northwest breeze.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/14/weekend-questions/
Apr 09
After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range. Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.
Sure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).
Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.
The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.
This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period. This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.
In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/09/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/
Mar 28
https://youtu.be/yvsQovGNPyQ
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/28/saturday-morning-update-2/
Mar 02
Good evening, friends! As promised, there’s a lot on the weather menu over the course of the upcoming several days. Let’s get right into the details.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 3a-12p for all of the region to account for the sleet and freezing rain situation we’ll deal with late tonight into the first half of Tuesday. We still expect significant travel issues and overall impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.
Forecast radar shows freezing rain spreading into the region between 3 and 4am.
Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue for the better part of the morning hours as temperatures likely won’t climb above freezing until early Tuesday afternoon, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast.
Forecast temperatures at 12p Tuesday.
We still don’t anticipate many big time flooding concerns as a.) temperatures won’t warm all that much (we MAY reach 40 Tuesday evening, but that’s a big question mark) and b.) most of the heavy rain will remain south of central Indiana.
Here’s expected liquid-equivalent totals through Wednesday morning.
The next concern is the threat of accumulating snow for central and southern portions of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Arctic high pressure will limit the northern extent of significant precipitation, but, as mentioned previously, energy rounding the base of the trough will ignite another wave of low pressure to move along the pressing arctic front. As of now, we target areas along and south of the I-70 corridor most under the gun for a potentially impactful snow storm Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.
The individual GFS ensemble members have also been trending north and overall more excited about snow prospects, as well.
The other item on the agenda is a shot of record cold in here for late week. Sub-zero lows are a good bet by Friday morning. Highs Thursday will push for a new record low maximum temperature.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/02/a-lot-to-discuss/
Jan 29
Forecast models for the most part have been much more aligned with this upcoming event, with the exception of a couple runs on Wednesday. Overnight and this morning modeling is…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/29/weekend-snow-storm-brewing/
Jan 28
Quick video update on our thinking tonight, as well as a look at the weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/28/wednesday-evening-thoughts-2/