Updated 04.14.21 @ 7:49a
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Category: GFS
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Mar 12
Weekend Opens With Sunshine; Tracking Two Storms Next Week…
Updated 03.12.21 @ 7:38a
The cold front that delivered showers and thunderstorms to central Indiana Thursday is now off to our south. In general, rainfall amounts checked in between 0.50″ and 0.75″ to the north of Indianapolis and between 1″ and 2″ south of the I-70 corridor. Far downstate saw rainfall totals as high as 3″ in spots.
High pressure will nudge into central Indiana and keep us dry (including offering up sunshine) as we open the weekend.
Highs will top out in the middle 50s both today and Saturday across central Indiana with partly cloudy conditions. While lows tonight will be chilly, most should stay just above freezing (unless you’re viewing from northeast or far east-central IN).
Clouds will increase Sunday and a cold light rain will follow by late morning/ early afternoon.
Eventually this rain will increase in intensity as we move into Monday morning. At the same time, cold air will be drilling into northeast regions of the state. The combination of the two will lead to a period of mixed precipitation Monday morning into the afternoon hours across northeast Indiana. Since it’s been unseasonably warm as of late and temperatures will be only marginally cold (upper 20s to lower 30s), icing on area roadways isn’t expected. That said, elevated surfaces could accumulate a light glaze of ice Monday morning for areas along and north of a line from Muncie to Logansport.
Milder air will overspread the region Monday afternoon and allow everything to switch over to a plain ole rain that will continue into Tuesday.
Most of central Indiana can expect an additional 0.50″ to 1″ of rain with this early week feature.
We’ll have a brief break in the action for St. Patrick’s Day and then another storm system will roll across the Ohio Valley Thursday. Forecast models differ on the track of this system (GFS is colder and further south while the European is warmer/ further north). We’ll fine tune things over the weekend and update accordingly. From this distance, I’d plan on another round of rain and potential thunder Thursday.
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Feb 25
VIDEO: Sunshine Remains For Now; Heavy Rain Targets Far Southern IN This Weekend…
Updated 02.25.21 @ 7:14a
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Feb 23
VIDEO: The Spring “Fling” Is On…
Updated 02.23.21 @ 7:51a
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Feb 20
We’ve Seen This Before…
Updated 02.20.21 @ 8:29a
Before we dive into the challenges late next week, the potential is still very much alive and kicking for a period of slick conditions to develop Sunday evening/ night. While we’ll likely be in the middle 30s during the majority of the time this light precipitation is falling, the concern remains, given the duration and magnitude of the cold air (ground is now reported frozen “8 to 12”), that any liquid precipitation that falls will freeze on untreated area roadways and sidewalks. If you have travel plans Sunday night, plan to give yourself plenty of extra time.
Light rain should arrive between 8p and 10p (west to east across the state) Sunday before ending as a bit of light snow (little to no accumulation expected as of now). Total precipitation should be 0.20″ or less for most with this event.
As we look ahead, the next item of possible trouble awaits for mid and late week. A cold front will push south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While this may generate a brief period of light rain transitioning to light snow, it’s what follows that’s of more interest.
Operational guidance (both the European and GFS) suggest this late week system will present a winter storm for our friends in the TN Valley, but we advise to tread with caution for now.
The reason? A strongly negative PNA.
You know the drill by now. This should lead to a more stubborn southeastern ridge and subsequent further north storm track.
Over time, I’d suspect we’ll see just that- the models trending further north with this particular storm system.
As it is, ensemble guidance is already significantly further north than their respective operational counterparts. At the very least, another interesting case study is in front of us…
Stay tuned!
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