Category: Freezing Rain

Dec 31

Client Brief: Freezing Rain Arrives Pre-Dawn Friday…

Type: Impactful wintry weather

What: Freezing rain/ icy glaze

When: 2a – 1p Friday

Temperatures: 25° to 30° (location dependent, please see below)

Wind: East 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required

Summary: After a dry New Year’s Eve, moisture will advance north as a surface low tracks from the northwestern Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley. As the precipitation arrives (around or just after midnight for far southwestern IN before spreading north, reaching Indianapolis by 4a, and north-central Indiana by 6a), it’ll encounter a shallow layer of cold air entrenched at the surface. Several hours of freezing rain can be expected north of a line from Terre Haute, Bloomington, and Cincinnati Friday morning where temperatures will remain below freezing the longest. South of that line, only a brief period of icing is expected before a transition to a cold rain. Further north, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor, temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 20s tonight and slowly rise into the lower 30s by late morning. All of the state will “warm” above freezing by Friday afternoon with any lingering moisture falling as a plain ole rain. Beforehand, an icy glaze is expected to develop predawn Friday and travel will be difficult in places- especially from central IN and points north. If at all possible, we recommend delaying travel until afternoon as conditions should slowly begin to improve by that point.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This afternoon

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-freezing-rain-arrives-pre-dawn-friday/

Dec 30

VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Flip To Wet Snow This Evening And Freezing Rain NYD Morning…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-short-term-update-on-flip-to-wet-snow-this-evening-and-freezing-rain-nyd-morning/

Dec 30

12.30.20 Weather Bulletin: Timing Out Period Of Wet Snow By Evening; Icy Glaze To Open New Year’s Day…

Rain Ends As Wet Snow This Evening…A cold rain will continue to overspread central Indiana this morning. A cold front will slip south across the state through the afternoon and temperatures will fall into the 30s prior to sunset across most of the region. One final wave of moisture will push northeast across the area as temperatures fall into the low and mid 30s leading to a brief period of wet snow between 6p and 10p (northeast to southwest). We’re likely only looking at a window of 1-2 hours of snow at any one location, but it could fall moderate to heavy during that brief window and accumulate between a dusting and 1.5″. We’ll keep an eye on model trends through the day.

New Year’s Eve will feature dry, but gloomy and cold conditions. Look for overcast skies and highs struggling to make it to freezing.

Our second area of low pressure will lift north from the northwestern Gulf Coast into the Midwest Friday and Saturday. This will help widespread precipitation overspread the Hoosier state New Year’s Day (before sunrise for most). With cold air locked in at the surface, precipitation at the onset, continuing for a few hours north of a line from Terre Haute, Bloomington, and Cincinnati, will fall as freezing rain. If traveling early, we’d recommend caution as a light icy glaze (less than .10″ for most) is a good bet. Eventually warmer air will win out, switching things to a “plain ole rain” late morning into the afternoon.

Lingering showers will end Saturday as a trailing piece of upper level energy moves east across the Ohio Valley. Dry skies will return as we open up the new work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/12-30-20-weather-bulletin-timing-out-period-of-wet-snow-by-evening-icy-glaze-to-open-new-years-day/

Dec 30

Rain Ends As Snow This Evening; Freezing Rain Transitions To Rain New Year’s Morning…

Rain is on the move east early this morning and should overspread most of central Indiana prior to sunrise or shortly after.

Highs will top out in the mid-upper 40s this afternoon before beginning to fall into the 30s by late afternoon. Guidance has also begun to trend more bullish on a narrow band of wet snow developing across central Indiana around, or just after, sunset as the colder air filters into the region. For now, we’ll target between 6p and 10p for the changeover to wet snow across central Indiana. While we’re still not forecasting significant snowfall, a quick 1”-2” isn’t out of the question before drier air builds in by mid to late evening. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

New Year’s Eve will feature a cloudy, cold, but dry day. Our secondary area of low pressure will lift north New Year’s Day, spreading moisture back into the state. Cold air will be entrenched early and allow this precipitation to take the form of freezing rain predawn Friday, continuing for a few hours before switching over to plain ole rain. Before this transition takes place, a light glaze (.1 or less) is possible across most of central Indiana (mainly along and north of a Terre Haute to Bloomington to Cincinnati line).

I’m still working on getting a video uploaded from the road. Fingers are crossed I’ll have success later this morning. Make it a great Wednesday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-ends-as-snow-this-evening-freezing-rain-transitions-to-rain-new-years-morning/

Feb 06

Long Range Update: Latest EPO/ MJO Implications…

Before we dig into the late-February pattern, there’s no let-up in sight with respect to our current active weather pattern. Just next week alone, we’re tracking (3) systems:

I. Sunday

II. Wednesday

III. Thursday-Friday

This is all part of the big battle taking place between a persistent southeast ridge and western trough. The tight thermal gradient between these features will help “fuel” continued active times, and above average precipitation next week. As mentioned this morning, at times we’ll have to deal with bouts of moderate-heavy rain, and at others, sleet, snow, and freezing rain.

An active weather pattern will continue as the ‘mean’ storm track cuts right through the Ohio Valley next week.

Looking ahead, we continue to build our longer range forecast by using “base ingredients” that feature a 50-50 split of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and EPO (East Pacific Oscillation).

The MJO maintains a warm look, rolling things into Phase 5-6 over the next few weeks.

As you know by now, these are warm phases- especially across the eastern portion of the country.

The “saving grace” for fans of at least being on the playing field for a chance of wintry weather in such warm MJO phases is the negative EPO. There’s great model agreement that this negative EPO will continue into the middle part of the month and this will keep us on our toes for wintry implications as storms track through the region. Conversely, there’s reason to buy into a “blow torch” regime to close the month, as the EPO flips positive and combines with the Phase 5-6 of the MJO.

To no surprise, given the above, we see the new European Weeklies showing a warming trend (after the fight over the upcoming week) for late-February.

The JMA Weeklies from this morning (for the Weeks 3-4 time frame) would agree.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-latest-epo-mjo-implications/