Feb 15
* Your full, updated, 7-Day Forecast will be published later tonight. 1.) In the long range, credit the Canadian model for being spot on with yesterday’s snow storm. It was…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-notes/
Feb 13
|
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19/ 27 |
6/ 26 |
14/ 30 |
23/ 40 |
22/ 43 |
32/ 50 |
38/ 62 |
|
2-5″ |
1″ |
0.00” |
0.40″ |
0.00″ |
0.00″ |
0.50″ |
Forecast Updated 02.14.14 @ 11:00a
Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow…The Canadian led the charge and other modeling has followed suit. The region will deal with accumulating snow Valentines Day as low pressure moves southeast out of Missouri into the Tennessee Valley. We think snow will fall at a good clip, periodically heavy, and begin around mid morning around the city. In fact, a strip of 2-5″ of snow is likely to be laid down between Indianapolis and Louisville later today. Latest radar trends from upstream and banding features suggest snowfall amounts may reach 6″ along the I-70 corridor. Needless to say, if you have travel plans this afternoon plan for snow covered roads and slick travel.
A fresh shot of arctic air will drill south into the region tonight and result in Saturday “wake up” temperatures in the single digits with a biting northwest wind.
Another Fast Moving Clipper…After a mostly dry Saturday, we forecast light snow to build back into the region Saturday night into early Sunday. This will only be a light snow event and most amounts will be in the dusting to 1″ category. The sun should quickly return Sunday afternoon, though it’ll remain colder than normal.
Foggy Start To The Week…As a southerly air flow transports milder air north and over the snow pack across central Indiana fog will develop. It’s possible some freezing drizzle is dealt with Monday morning before temperatures rise above freezing. Prepare for a downright gloomy start to the work week. A cold front will push through the region Monday evening and lead to a period of showers, potentially transitioning to light snow or a light wintry mix Monday night as cold air sweeps back in.
A Spring Tease…A spring tease will have many Hoosiers wanting to break out the shorts by the mid week period. In fact, highs will zoom into the 60s Thursday, courtesy of a strong and gusty southwest breeze. The downside? A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms later in the day. While we still have a week to monitor this situation, the possibility is there for a few storms to reach severe levels across the Ohio Valley region. Stay tuned as we monitor this developing weather situation.
Looking longer term, we anticipate the briefly milder spring “tease” to be just that. Signals are increasingly favorable for a prolonged period of cold, wintry conditions building back into the region as we put a wrap on February and head into March.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/valentines-day-snow/
Feb 02
As we approach the time for many Super Bowl parties to kick off, we wanted to go ahead and post some initial snowfall numbers for our upcoming winter storm Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. It’s important to note that model data will be able to fully sample the storm later tonight so we’ll fine tune things Monday morning, but here’s our early idea…
We think snow (wintry mix across south-central Indiana) moves in as early as Tuesday afternoon, with the period of heaviest precipitation falling Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday. This will be a quick moving storm and, as such, will impact precipitation totals from reaching even higher amounts. Additionally, we’re also noting the chance central and southern Indiana gets into the dry slot late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of right now, our forecast snowfall totals are based on 1. a relatively fast moving storm system and 2. the current likelihood of being dry-slotted across portions of central Indiana. It will be important to note where the all-too-popular (for snow lovers) deformation zone sets up shop as heavier snow totals, in excess of half a foot, will likely fall within this band. Additionally, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain may fall across south-central Indiana (current thinking places this icy mix south of I-70) and this could lead to tree limb and power line damage in spots. Stay tuned…
Here’s what area radars may look like Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This data is courtesy of the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics.
Our thinking hasn’t changed on the overall track of the low (track map originally posted here Saturday night).
Quick Bullet Point Thoughts:
By the way, we’re tracking another winter storm for the upcoming weekend and we’ll discuss this in more detail in the days to come… Enjoy the game!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/initial-snowfall-ideas-no-let-up-in-sight-with-this-pattern/
Feb 02
As we continue to draw ever closer to our next significant winter storm, we wanted to provide some of our latest thoughts. This isn’t a post that will hash out…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-thoughts-on-our-next-winter-storm/
Jan 30
If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types. In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”
Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:
A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.
Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south. Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night… Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night. What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday. That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).
We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above. This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/as-promised-complicated-and-complex/
