Feb 15
* Your full, updated, 7-Day Forecast will be published later tonight. 1.) In the long range, credit the Canadian model for being spot on with yesterday’s snow storm. It was…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/15/saturday-morning-notes/
Feb 13
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Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
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19/ 27 |
6/ 26 |
14/ 30 |
23/ 40 |
22/ 43 |
32/ 50 |
38/ 62 |
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2-5″ |
1″ |
0.00” |
0.40″ |
0.00″ |
0.00″ |
0.50″ |
Forecast Updated 02.14.14 @ 11:00a
Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow…The Canadian led the charge and other modeling has followed suit. The region will deal with accumulating snow Valentines Day as low pressure moves southeast out of Missouri into the Tennessee Valley. We think snow will fall at a good clip, periodically heavy, and begin around mid morning around the city. In fact, a strip of 2-5″ of snow is likely to be laid down between Indianapolis and Louisville later today. Latest radar trends from upstream and banding features suggest snowfall amounts may reach 6″ along the I-70 corridor. Needless to say, if you have travel plans this afternoon plan for snow covered roads and slick travel.
A fresh shot of arctic air will drill south into the region tonight and result in Saturday “wake up” temperatures in the single digits with a biting northwest wind.
Another Fast Moving Clipper…After a mostly dry Saturday, we forecast light snow to build back into the region Saturday night into early Sunday. This will only be a light snow event and most amounts will be in the dusting to 1″ category. The sun should quickly return Sunday afternoon, though it’ll remain colder than normal.
Foggy Start To The Week…As a southerly air flow transports milder air north and over the snow pack across central Indiana fog will develop. It’s possible some freezing drizzle is dealt with Monday morning before temperatures rise above freezing. Prepare for a downright gloomy start to the work week. A cold front will push through the region Monday evening and lead to a period of showers, potentially transitioning to light snow or a light wintry mix Monday night as cold air sweeps back in.
A Spring Tease…A spring tease will have many Hoosiers wanting to break out the shorts by the mid week period. In fact, highs will zoom into the 60s Thursday, courtesy of a strong and gusty southwest breeze. The downside? A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms later in the day. While we still have a week to monitor this situation, the possibility is there for a few storms to reach severe levels across the Ohio Valley region. Stay tuned as we monitor this developing weather situation.
Looking longer term, we anticipate the briefly milder spring “tease” to be just that. Signals are increasingly favorable for a prolonged period of cold, wintry conditions building back into the region as we put a wrap on February and head into March.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/valentines-day-snow/
Feb 02
As we approach the time for many Super Bowl parties to kick off, we wanted to go ahead and post some initial snowfall numbers for our upcoming winter storm Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. It’s important to note that model data will be able to fully sample the storm later tonight so we’ll fine tune things Monday morning, but here’s our early idea…
We think snow (wintry mix across south-central Indiana) moves in as early as Tuesday afternoon, with the period of heaviest precipitation falling Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday. This will be a quick moving storm and, as such, will impact precipitation totals from reaching even higher amounts. Additionally, we’re also noting the chance central and southern Indiana gets into the dry slot late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of right now, our forecast snowfall totals are based on 1. a relatively fast moving storm system and 2. the current likelihood of being dry-slotted across portions of central Indiana. It will be important to note where the all-too-popular (for snow lovers) deformation zone sets up shop as heavier snow totals, in excess of half a foot, will likely fall within this band. Additionally, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain may fall across south-central Indiana (current thinking places this icy mix south of I-70) and this could lead to tree limb and power line damage in spots. Stay tuned…
Here’s what area radars may look like Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This data is courtesy of the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics.
Our thinking hasn’t changed on the overall track of the low (track map originally posted here Saturday night).
Quick Bullet Point Thoughts:
By the way, we’re tracking another winter storm for the upcoming weekend and we’ll discuss this in more detail in the days to come… Enjoy the game!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/02/initial-snowfall-ideas-no-let-up-in-sight-with-this-pattern/
Feb 02
As we continue to draw ever closer to our next significant winter storm, we wanted to provide some of our latest thoughts. This isn’t a post that will hash out…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/02/more-thoughts-on-our-next-winter-storm/
Jan 30
If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types. In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”
Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:
A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.
Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south. Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night… Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night. What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday. That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).
We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above. This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/30/as-promised-complicated-and-complex/
Jan 29
We’re going to enjoy another day of sunshine, but moderating temperatures (finally) will help being outdoors become a little more tolerable (we think we “warm” into the middle 20s today). That said, another winter weather maker is brewing and will result in an active Friday-Sunday ahead.
A cold front will sink south Thursday night and could result in a little light snow (not a big deal). As we move into Friday and Saturday, model data handles our sensible weather differently. Precipitation type will be highly dependent upon exactly where the cold front stalls. We want to show you the GFS as it depicts the variety of precipitation types. It should be important to note that the GFS, European, and Canadian, though different in their respected solutions this weekend, are close enough to go with a “blend” of all three models for our official forecast.
We think snow overspreads the region Friday morning and could deposit a quick couple inches across the metro area Friday. It’s as we get into Friday night and Saturday that we’ll note another (stronger) wave moving along the front. In response to this wave of low pressure, warmer air (both at the surface and aloft) will push north. Exactly how far north is still up for debate as a battle will be established with push back being provided from an area of high pressure across the upper Mississippi River Valley. We feel as if south-central Indiana will get in on some mixing issues with sleet and perhaps a cold rain Friday night into Saturday. Depending on how strong the wave of low pressure is will determine exactly how far north the rain line makes it. For now, we think Indianapolis and northern suburbs remain in a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and possible freezing rain through the majority of the day Saturday. That said, we do note this will warrant tight focus in the days ahead as any deviation from the track of the low or strength of the cold high to our north could greatly impact our weekend weather.
Finally, precipitation will begin to taper late Saturday night as the cold high to our north eventually wins out. It’s possible all of central Indiana deals with a quick pop of accumulating snow as precipitation ends Saturday night/ wee morning hours Sunday.
We stress that this is still a highly changing weather situation and most likely will require some “fine tuning” as we move forward. This morning we think heaviest snow (potentially approaching half a foot) falls across north-central Indiana, including Kokomo, Marion, and Lafayette. A wintry mix of all precipitation types will fall south of there, including the Indianapolis metro. South of I-70, we think rain will be the predominant precipitation type, with only a light accumulation of snow as precipitation ends.
As stated above, stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/29/wintry-mix-issues-late-week-weekend/
Dec 16
During the late summer and early autumn months we were trying to look at the big picture and potential drivers in the overall weather pattern for the upcoming winter and openly admitted the challenges that were ahead. Here we are now into the second half of December and a much colder and snowier-than-average month is a virtual lock at this point. Furthermore, consider this has all taken place without the presence of a favorable NAO or PNA. Sometimes you have to look for other drivers in a pattern- in this case, the EPO, as well as a growing early fall snow pack across the border to our north. Additionally, we made mention of the likelihood of a southeast US ridge periodically making itself known through the winter of ’13-’14. You can read all of our thoughts posted earlier this fall here, or by clicking the Thoughts On Winter ’13-’14 page above.
As we look ahead towards the upcoming wintry challenge, we’re confident of the overall pattern, but the sensible weather that’ll ensue is still up for great debate. “Gut” tells me central Indiana will be looking at a rain to freezing rain scenario, but this is far from set in stone, and sometimes forecasters who go simply off their instinct can get burned. The pattern is one that (once again) will feature a pressing arctic front against resistance from the southeast US ridge. With this type of scenario, I would advise against looking at each and every individual operational model run, but instead invest time studying the ensembles- an average of several multiple model runs as opposed to just one operational model run. I can guarantee a variety of wild solutions ahead in the days to come, based off the operational runs. (Heck, just the past 24 hours have been reason enough to have the dramamine on hand :-)). That said, let’s take a look at the latest GFS and European ensembles, two models that we rely heavily on in the mid range weather pattern.
First, the GFS, valid Saturday through Monday.
Now, here’s a look at the latest European ensembles (left), again valid Saturday-Monday.
So what do all of these cool maps tell us? Simply put, that “wintry mischief” is brewing for the weekend. That much we know, but the details have to be ironed out. It’s likely heavy snow and a significant ice storm looms for some of the Mid West and Ohio Valley for the upcoming weekend. Is that Indianapolis or Chicago? Perhaps in between? It’s too early to know. Additionally, in the “warmer” sector, heavy rains are likely to combine with an impressive early season snow pack for some to lead to flooding concerns.
A couple of additional items to note. Many times at this stage in the game (still 5+ days out) with this type of pattern, forecast models really struggle with handling low level cold air. Cold air is very dense and, in this type of set up, can easily drain much further east and south than forecast at this juncture. Additionally, sometimes the modeling can put too much “umph” into the associated surface wave that moves along the arctic front resulting in a further north track than what may actually occur when the event draws closer. Just something to keep an eye on as we draw closer…
Needless to say, it’ll be particularly important to keep a close eye on the developing weekend forecast as we move forward. It’s likely folks in the Ohio Valley region have to deal with significant precipitation amounts in the Saturday-Monday time period, including rain, freezing rain, and snow.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/16/major-storm-brewing-this-weekend-but-details-are-murky/
Dec 11
Latest data in house still suggests a plowable snow is ahead for most of central Indiana this weekend. We think wintry precipitation expands northeast to encompass all of the region between 7pm-9pm Friday evening (southwest to northeast). This wintry precipitation still appears to take the form of all snow for IND and points north, but we caution that south-central Indiana communities will have to deal with a mixed bag of precipitation, including sleet and perhaps some freezing rain along with the snow. The primary snow zone will have no trouble seeing snow amounts of 4-5 inches, but for south-central Indiana neighborhoods, snowfall accumulations appear to be closer to 2 inches, with additional accumulations of sleet also possible. Needless to say, we feel pretty good about our initial snowfall forecast posted last night in our 7-Day forecast video (always available to the right of these posts in the video player). The limiting factor, in our opinion, of even higher snowfall totals will be due to the speed of the system. We think this is primarily a quick 6-8 hour “thump and go” type snow storm followed by some lingering light snow/ snow showers and gusty winds Saturday PM. The sunshine returns for Sunday along with another surge of bitterly cold air with highs in the 20s.
Friday night-Saturday Snow Storm Highlights:
Our attention then turns to what may lie ahead Christmas week. After the chance of some brief “relaxation” from the current bitterly cold pattern, we look to reload the cold with authority around Christmas week. In fact, if latest data comes to fruition, the current cold would pale in comparison to what lies ahead. Additionally, a rather significant storm system could precede the arctic blast. It’s far too early to talk specifics on precipitation type or amounts, but don’t be surprised if a storm of “significance” is on the maps as we approach Christmas week…
The latest ensemble plot from the GFS and European (below) agree on first class cross-polar flow setting up shop, which will help refrigerate the Lower 48 with some seriously bitter air just in time for Christmas. Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/11/snow-talk-and-a-look-ahead-towards-christmas-week/
Dec 09
1.) Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle led to numerous reports of a light glaze and associated very hazardous travel across central Indiana overnight. With temperatures remaining below freezing today,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/09/monday-morning-weather-rambles/
