Updated 01.24.21 @ 4:08p
As we write this, the Indianapolis National Weather Service is in the process of issuing a Winter Weather Advisory across central Indiana from 5a to 1p Monday.
While areas of freezing fog/ freezing drizzle will impact some communities, generally a quiet evening is in store for central Indiana. Unfortunately that will begin to change prior to most folks leaving for work/ school Monday morning. A shield of moisture will lift north into the state during the predawn hours before encompassing immediate central Indiana after sunrise. With shallow cold air locked in place at the surface, the predominant precipitation type will be freezing rain across central Indiana. Surface temperatures will likely be between 28° & 32° during the onset of precipitation Monday morning.
While areas from Indianapolis and points south will change to rain by early afternoon, the growing concern here is the lack of warm air advection with this system. Areas from the northern ‘burbs and points north may have a hard time nudging above the freezing mark (at least before the majority of precipitation falls) tomorrow afternoon. Note the high resolution data still holding onto the colder air tomorrow evening (image below valid at 5p Monday).
As such, the highlighted area below is of greatest concern for the threat of ice accretion greater than 1/4” Monday. This includes northern ‘burbs and points north to a line from Lafayette over to Kokomo and Portland. Areas further note will remain cold enough to maintain wintry precipitation, but the depth of the cold will likely keep things predominantly of the frozen (not “freezing” 🙂 variety).
We’ll be back into the office tonight and issue our official client brief, but I wanted to be sure to touch base on our latest thoughts from the road this afternoon. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!
As upper level energy tracks northeast this evening, strong frontogenesis will help a “
Obviously this will create concerns for power outages, but the other major worry is for developing blizzard-like conditions and whiteouts through the late afternoon into tonight.
We’ll have additional updates later this afternoon here on IndyWx.com and on our social media accounts.
II. As we look ahead, our next weather system will scoot into the region over the weekend. This will be a weak event and we only expect a light mixture of snow and rain Saturday evening.
III. The balance of Thanksgiving week looks rather quiet, but chilly, thanks to high pressure. The stretch of below to well below normal temperatures will continue, overall.
IV. As we look ahead, the pattern sure looks cold and stormy as we open December. On that note, the majority of data continues to trend colder for the month of December, as a whole, and with high latitude blocking in place, we’d expect to see an active storm track across the country. If you like it cold and active for the holidays, you just might be in luck this year… More on that later!
Looking ahead, a rather prolonged and significant snow event is setting up shop across northern Indiana. We forecast snow to begin falling Thursday night before becoming heavy at times Friday. A tight thermal gradient will aid in the combination of ingredients to produce hefty snowfall across far northern IN and also provide a brief break from the cold, locally, Friday afternoon (forecasting highs into the 40s here). With that said, if your travels take you north, prepare for significant travel disruptions with the heavy snow.
A cold front will drop south into central Indiana overnight Friday into Saturday. At the same time, a couple of disturbances will ride northeast along the front. This will result in periods of light wintry precipitation across central Indiana over the upcoming weekend. Initially, this should be rather insignificant with a mix of light rain and perhaps some light sleet or light freezing rain Saturday.
However, as our airmass becomes progressively colder Saturday night into Sunday things will become more interesting. At the same time, a final wave of energy will lift northeast, spreading moisture into the colder air mass. We forecast more widespread wintry precipitation to engulf central Indiana Saturday night into Sunday. A wintry mix of sleet and snow is possible early on before transitioning to all snow Sunday morning. A period of accumulating snow is expected Sunday and we’ll fine tune numbers as we move closer.
Looking further ahead, an active time of things will continue as the battle remains between cold centering itself across the northern Plains into the Lakes and Ohio Valley and resistance from the southeast ridge. This will continue to lead to a busy period of weather across the region, including storm systems that will come along every couple of days.
We continue to think things are aligning in a fashion that should result in a significant period of cold developing during the second half of February into March this year. We note the teleconnections continue to trend in cold directions and the MJO is also rolling along into the colder phases. We have a long, long ways to go this winter and think some headline events remain on the table as we close the month and open March. Time will tell.
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