Category: Forecast
Highlights:
- Continued unsettled and unseasonably cool
- Drier time arrives Sunday
- Moderating temperatures early next week
Rinse And Repeat Pattern…Our weather pattern will be dominated by a “cut off” upper low through Saturday. While it won’t rain the entire time, we’ll maintain mention of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms each day. It still appears as if Friday will serve up the most widespread rain coverage. Similar to today, stronger thunderstorms could contain small hail, especially during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain significantly cooler than normal through the period.
A drier regime will build in late this weekend into early next week. Ridging will continue to expand as we move into mid week with needed dry time and moderating temperatures. Our next storm system appears to be slated for an arrival next Thursday. Storms will accompany the front followed by much cooler air.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/28/rinse-and-repeat/
Highlights:
- Tuesday sunshine gives way to increasing clouds
- Unsettled, unseasonably cool stretch of weather ahead
- Beginning to dry things out late in the weekend
Prolonged Stretch Of Unseasonably Cool; Unsettled Weather…A cold front swept through the region this morning with a round of showers and thunderstorms followed by a push of drastically drier and cooler air for the PM. The coolest night since spring is dialed up with a mostly clear sky. Many central IN neighborhoods should be in the mid/ upper 40s Tuesday morning.
Enjoy the sunshine Tuesday as clouds being to increase during the second half of the day. A cut off upper level low will drop south and “meander” around our neck of the woods for mid and late week. This will supply considerable cloudiness, periods of scattered showers, and unseasonably cool temperatures. Even some small hail is possible (with the stronger showers) during the afternoon hours, thanks to the cold air aloft.
We’ll slowly begin to dry things out and allow temperatures to moderate heading through the back half of the weekend, continuing into early next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/26/grab-the-jacket/
Highlights:
- Dry weekend
- Rain arrives late Sunday night/ early Monday
- Feeling much more like fall next week
Heat Is Limited…Despite areas of low clouds and fog, we’re looking at a mostly dry weekend. A large temperature contrast will be noted from northeast parts of the state to the southwest corner this afternoon as a backdoor cold front continues to press south. Showers will build in late Sunday night (well after most folks head to bed). This is in association with an autumn cold front that will sweep through the region Monday morning. Showers will continue through the morning hours before a northwest wind shift helps usher in a drier and much cooler air mass Monday afternoon. You’ll want to reach for the jacket and your favorite pumpkin beverage Monday evening…
Unseasonably cool air will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week, along with a northwest flow. It’ll feel much more like fall and the cooler, drier air mass will really help ignite the fall color change across central IN.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/24/changes-brewing-2/
Highlights:
- Dry, warm close to the work week
- Warm weekend
- Much cooler air awaits
Summer Feel Gives Way To An Autumn Chill…A backdoor cold front will press into central IN over the weekend and will serve as a focal point for increased clouds at times (northern portions of the state today and more of central IN Saturday). While an isolated to widely scattered shower is possible with this front, most will remain rain-free straight through the weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal across the region.
A stronger cold front will march towards the area to open the work week. Showers and embedded thunder will accompany the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. We’ll then note a marked NW wind shift by evening and that will help usher in a true push of fall air. A stretch of mornings with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s during the day will take us through mid week. Those cooler readings will really being to ignite the color change across central IN.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/23/much-cooler-air-on-deck/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest'16, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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September 22, 2016
The remainder of the work week and this weekend will remain dry and unseasonably warm. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s through the period. Strong ridging will keep us rain-free with plentiful sunshine.
A “backdoor” cold front will approach the region from the northeast late in the weekend, but won’t have enough “umph” to push the drier, cooler air our friends across the northeast and mid Atlantic will enjoy our way.
The evolution of the pattern from an unseasonably warm, dry regime to a much cooler, autumnal feel will, undoubtedly, feature showers and thunderstorms as we transition. Modeling continues to waffle back and forth in regards to rainfall totals. As of now, we’ll highlight Monday-Wednesday with increased rain chances.
Thereafter, we turn MUCH cooler. Data suggests Tuesday-Friday features temperatures much more like we’d expect for late September. Lows in the 45-50 degree range, along with highs between 65-70 can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/22/hot-dry-pattern-continues-for-now-much-cooler-next-week/
Highlights:
- Warmth continues
- Dry weather through the weekend
- Timing issues early next week
Sunglasses Required…The first half of the period is as easy as the second half is difficult so we won’t waste any time on it. Look for lots of sunshine, unseasonably warm temperatures, and dry conditions through the weekend. A “backdoor” cold front will be close to the region Sunday, but the impact it has on our immediate region will be minimal. Eastern portions of the state will experience a cooler second half of the weekend with a breezy easterly flow.
The challenging period arrives to open up the work week and the GFS and European couldn’t be further apart. There’s a 48 hour difference between when the GFS slides the strong cold front through (Monday) and European (Wednesday). You can imagine, the sensible weather differs from a continuation of the unseasonably warm and dry conditions until Wednesday (European) or a true blast of fall air arriving Monday (GFS).
For the purpose of this forecast, we’ll lean more towards the GFS. While it hasn’t been perfect, it’s easy to argue it’s been handling things in a much more consistent manner than the European as of late. Furthermore, when the European completely “lost” this front earlier in the week, the GFS at least kept the idea alive and kicking. Now the European model is having to play “catch up.” With all of that said, we expect the cold front to deliver scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday followed by a significant drop in temperatures Monday night. Unsettled weather would continue Tuesday with the much cooler air. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/21/hot-now-but-changes-coming/
Highlights:
- Dry week for the most part
- Unseasonably warm
- Significant cold front looms
Extended Stretch Of Dry Weather…Despite a weak frontal boundary getting close enough to create an isolated shower Tuesday, we’re looking at dry conditions this week, complete with plentiful amounts of sunshine. Average temperatures for mid September include lower 50s for lows and highs in the lower 70s. With highs this week surging into the middle to upper 80s with lows in the middle 60s, it’s safe we’ll enjoy some bonus “summer time!”
For those longing for the chilly, crisp conditions of the fall season, hang in there. A strong cold front will approach the region late in the weekend and will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. MUCH cooler air awaits behind the boundary…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/18/dry-warm-week/
Highlights:
- Showers become more scattered this afternoon
- Nice Sunday on deck
- Late season push of summer heat before cooler times
Drying Out Sunday…It was a wet and stormy night across central IN, including locally hefty rainfall totals (some neighborhoods picked up more than 2″). We’ve been dealing with widespread soaking rain across central IN through the morning, but as we progress into the afternoon, most concentrated rain will remain east of the city and on into Ohio. Scattered showers will remain possible until the cold front presses through the region tonight.
High pressure will build overhead Sunday and supply increasing sunshine and a pleasant second half of the weekend. Lower humidity will promote overnight lows into the upper 50s to open the week.
A secondary (weak) front may yield an isolated to widely scattered shower Tuesday, but the bigger story will be late season heat building to close the week. Highs will approach the 90 degree mark by Friday as a big ole ridge expands across the region.
Longer term, a significant cold front looms just beyond the current forecast period that will offer up thunderstorms and a big blast of fall-like air to close the month…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/17/drying-out-late-season-push-of-summer-air/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms
- More concentrated; heavier rain this weekend
- Drier to open the work week
Scattered Storms Around…A weak frontal boundary will kick up a couple of scattered storms today. While rainfall totals won’t be uniform (some may not even see any rain at all), a couple of heavier downpours are a good bet. We’ll notice a drier and slightly cooler air mass overnight into Thursday.
The dry time won’t last long as a more significant storm system approaches this weekend. Most of the daytime Friday should be dry, but rain and storm chances will increase Friday night and Saturday continues to look wet with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Morning showers will impact portions of the region Sunday before we dry things out Sunday PM. Dry times continue to open the new work week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″-1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/14/scattered-storms-today-more-widespread-rain-saturday/
Highlights:
- Sun-filled days
- Crisp air
- Midweek showers
- Saturday rain
Fall Feel…Sprawling high pressure will supply a dry open to the week, complete with plentiful sunshine and dry air. Conditions will be beautiful to spend time outdoors- very much like early fall.
Our next weather maker will scoot through the region Wednesday with scattered showers. Once the front blows through, reinforcing cool air will press into the state Wednesday evening. A few reports of upper 40s will be likely away from the city Thursday and Friday morning.
While timing is still a bit up in the air at this distance, Saturday is looking unsettled as another cold front blows through. (Get the idea we’re in an active period)?
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/11/gorgeous-open-to-the-week/
