Pre-Dawn High; Sunshine Returns…Our high temperature Monday will take place right after midnight for most of central Indiana. Daytime temperatures will remain steady in the low-mid 30s for most of the region as clouds slowly give way to a return of the sunshine. This is all thanks to a cold front that slipped southeast across the state last night. (Same boundary that helped generate some light showers across the region Sunday evening).
High pressure will continue to dominate our area Tuesday, but “trouble” lurks off to the west. Clouds will begin to increase during the 2nd half of the day and a few light showers (potentially mixed with snow across northern parts of the state) will arrive on the scene late in the evening as a warm front lifts north.
Midweek will feature unsettled weather conditions, but there are more questions than answers currently and fine tuning will take place over the next 24-48 hours. Solutions currently range from mild/ wet to a mixed bag, including ice and snow. In short, stay tuned… The one constant that remains is that this will be a more significant storm for central and western portions of the OHV than our Christmas Eve event. That said, details pertaining to precipitation type/ amounts are anyone’s guess from this point.
Chilly, dry conditions will return by the weekend.
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It’s still pleasant this morning across central Indiana, but that will begin to change by afternoon as heat and humidity increase in rather significant fashion. This tropical airmass will remain intact into early parts of the week and will help fuel hefty storms at times. The culprit? A warm front will lift northeast through the state over the next 12-24 hours, allowing a moist southwesterly flow to take control. A cold front will approach northern portions of the Ohio Valley tonight and Saturday before stalling out. This front will serve as a focal point for strong to severe storms mostly north of Indianapolis tonight. Eventually this front will slowly sink south before potentially even clearing the area, which would allow slightly cooler and much less humid air into central Indiana by midweek.
As we time out rain and storm chances, the first opportunity of scattered showers and storms will arrive late morning into this afternoon as the warm front begins to lift north. These will be of the “splash and dash” variety, but will be capable of brief heavy rain.
More widespread storms, including the possibility of a few strong-severe cells (damaging wind being of greatest concern) will target northern IN tonight- closer to the cold front.
These northern IN overnight storms should diminish before making it into Indianapolis.
With a warm and soupy airmass locked into place along with a trigger mechanism nearby with our frontal system, it’s a safe bet to expect scattered to numerous storms through the weekend and into Monday. During this time, overall coverage of storms should be greatest during the afternoon and evening, but even nighttime storms are possible. With precipitable water values approaching 2″ at times, any shower or storm will be capable of producing torrential rainfall in a short period of time.
As we move into early week, the front will get shoved southwest and drier air will try and intrude from the northeast. This may serve as a focus point for more widespread storms across central and western parts of the state early week. Eventually that drier air will win out across the entire area and should lead to a more pleasant feel along with eliminating rain chances by Wednesday into Thursday. Before we get to that point, widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″ to 2″ can be expected between now and Tuesday afternoon with locally heavier totals.
Drier air should arrive for midweek as a “backdoor” cold front presses southwest.
Looking Ahead: Things still look quite toasty around these parts for the Independence Day weekend, itself, as an expanding ridge builds overhead. Additionally, that same front that will be off to our west midweek will likely move back northeast by next weekend and help fuel a smattering of t-storm coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. Our call for the Independence Day weekend at this point is for hot, humid conditions (highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s) and plenty of dry time with widely scattered afternoon/ evening storm potential. These shouldn’t last terribly long for any one area.
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A big upper level low will “pinwheel” across the state later this evening. On the front end of the system, a southerly flow will deliver periods of rain today. At times, rain will take on a steadier nature and at others, only light rain and drizzle is anticipated.
Heaviest rainfall will occur across the eastern third of the state, including amounts around 0.50″.
As the upper low continues to track northeast, we’ll get in on the northerly flow of this feature tonight into Saturday. Secondly, a lobe of moisture will pivot into central and northern Indiana Saturday morning. With the colder air in place, the bulk of this should fall in the form of snow.
We think snow will move into the area around, or just before, sunrise Saturday and remain through the bulk of the day. Periods of moderate snow will fall with embedded bands, especially across north-central Indiana.
As for accumulation Saturday, we think in and around Indianapolis can expect a coating to up to 1″ of wet, slushy snow Saturday (no impacts to pavement expected). Northern suburbs (Zionsville, Carmel, Noblesville, etc.) and points north can expect 1″ to 2″ Saturday with the potential of slushy accumulation on untreated pavement surfaces.
The snow will depart Saturday night and we’ll get back to dry conditions Sunday.
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Needed moisture missed much of immediate central Indiana Tuesday. Areas south of the city picked up some locally heavy downpours, but the early morning diminishing convection to our northwest helped stabilize things just enough to prevent storms from redeveloping locally.
There will be another opportunity for getting some needed rain Thursday, but we caution coverage, yet again, will likely be of the “hit and miss” variety. Given some of the ingredients, a couple of severe cells will be possible ahead of the frontal boundary Thursday afternoon. Best chances of being impacted by a storm Thursday will be across east-central Indiana as a line of storms across Ohio “tails back” into Indiana. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does include this part of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.
Primary concerns for any stronger thunderstorm that develops will be large hail and straight line winds.
As we look ahead to the weekend, sprawling high pressure is still expected to move overhead and produce plentiful sunshine, low humidity (you’ll notice a big drop in moisture levels Thursday afternoon to Friday morning), and very pleasant temperatures.
Our next chance of rain and storms will arrive Monday into Tuesday.
More a bit later with the issuance of our Wednesday evening video update! Enjoy your Wednesday!
