Category: Forecast
Highlights:
- Feelin’ nice
- Scattered storms remain
- More widespread storms late week
Pleasant Open To The Work Week…A step out the door this morning will reveal a much more pleasant feel than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past week, or so. Much lower humidity and cooler air will be with us through the day Tuesday. With that said, enough upper level energy will be nearby to spark afternoon and evening showers and embedded thundershowers both today and Tuesday.
Humidity will return for the midweek stretch, and temperatures will also be on the climb. While the weekend looks unsettled, the precise details remain a bit “murky” at this point. We know a cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass, which will serve as a trigger for more widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rain). Some model guidance wants to get tropical moisture involved (from whatever comes of what’s currently Invest 93L). Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data this week. Regardless, a much cooler and drier air mass will arrive next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/19/refreshing-open-to-the-week-scattered-storm-chances-remain/
Highlights:
- Strong storms late tonight
- Turning cooler and less humid
- Unsettled pattern back half of next week
Storms Rumble In Late Tonight…Most of the daytime today will be dry and hot. High humidity will also be with us and will help boost heat indices into the middle 90s. Take it easy outdoors today.
We’ll have to keep a close eye on radar trends upstream tonight as a complex of thunderstorms is expected to erupt to our northwest this evening. This storm complex will track southeast and begin impacting Indiana by late-evening (thinking around 11p, or so, across northwest portions of the state as of now). As we push into the overnight, these storms will continue to settle southeast, including central Indiana. A couple of these storms may be strong and with such high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall is, once again, a good bet.
A couple of showers or thunderstorms will be with us Father’s Day, but outdoor plans shouldn’t be cancelled, as most of the day appears to be dry. It’ll be a cooler day and less humid air will filter into the state Sunday night. This will produce a glorious open to the work week!
Unsettled weather will return by the middle and latter portions of next week, along with a briefly warmer and more humid feel.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/17/tropical-feel-stormy-later-tonight/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms remain
- Oppressive feel
- Cooler times next week
Locally Heavy Storms…We’ll remain locked into a very warm and moist air mass through the remainder of the week, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. If you’re not a fan of the hot, humid weather, hang in there; next week will offer up a much different feel!
Before we discuss the cooler times that loom next week we still have to face several days of muggy weather and daily scattered storms. With such a “soupy” air mass in place (precipitable water exceeding 2″), any storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours. Similar to that of today, there will be “haves and have nots” over the next few days, but any storms that develop will have the potential of quickly pulsing to strong to severe levels and producing localized flash flooding.
Once to Sunday, a cold front will sweep through the state and finally wash all of the warm and humid air off to the southeast. While scattered storms will remain in our forecast through the weekend, a drier and cooler air mass will arrive on the scene early next week. Hang in there, friends!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/13/soupy-now-but-changes-loom/
Highlights:
- Dry conditions continue
- Hot and turning humid
- Storm chances return
Tropical Feel Develops…Pleasant air is on borrowed time and we’ll begin to notice an increasingly muggy feel to the air as early as this afternoon. Dew points will reach oppressive levels Monday into Tuesday (70° and above). With the increased moisture, isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, but most should still remain rain-free. Better shower and thunderstorm coverage will be noted Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through the state. This won’t be a “uniform” rain, but locally heavy downpours can be expected in the stronger storms. As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get. It’s a start, at the very least, towards a more active second half of June.
We’ll dry things out briefly Friday before another storm system approaches next weekend. Early indications would suggest next weekend’s storm system will provide more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
Tropics: Interesting times appear to be looming in the Gulf of Mexico as we push into the last couple weeks of the month. Models continue to paint various scenarios on potential early season tropical development and any one solution can’t be bought just yet. That said, the overall pattern does seem to want to promote some tropical “mischief” in the coming 10 days, or so.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/11/hot-and-humid-storms-chances-return/
Highlights:
- Another pleasant day ahead!
- Dry weather continues.
- The heat is on!
Dry Weather Continues; Summer Feel Develops…We’ll enjoy one more very pleasant and refreshing day Thursday, including plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and below normal temperatures. Many central Indiana neighborhoods will begin the day in the mid to upper 40s away from the city. Enjoy the pleasant weather while we’ve got it!
As we progress into the weekend, temperatures and humidity will begin to increase. By this time next week, overnight lows will be closer to today’s official (IND) high of 72°. One word: YUCK.
A couple of showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, but most, if not all, of these look to remain confined to the northern third of the state. That’s the only chance of moisture until we rumble into the middle of next week. In addition to the continued bone dry conditions, unseasonably hot weather will build in over the Mid West and result in highs of 90°, or higher, Sunday into early next week.
Looking into the longer range, a more active and increasingly wet regime looks to return just past mid-month. While the early season heat and dry weather will be significant, thankfully it doesn’t look like it’ll last…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/07/another-pleasant-day-then-its-time-to-sweat/
Highlights:
- Scattered late-day storms Sunday
- Dry weather returns
- Cooler next week
Scattered Strong Storms Late Sunday…Our beautiful weekend weather will continue into Sunday. Expect a mostly dry day along with warm and humid conditions. A cold front will approach late in the day and we still think a broken line of thunderstorms will slip south into central Indiana Sunday evening into Sunday night. A couple of these could become strong, but a widespread severe weather event isn’t anticipated.
We’ll quickly get back to dry conditions as we open the new work week and another extended spell of rain-free conditions should carry us through the balance of the upcoming forecast period. Additionally, a notable cooling trend will engulf the region. With dry skies, low humidity, and highs in the lower 70s it’ll be picture-perfect to spend time outdoors.
Moisture will begin to return next weekend and, accordingly, we’ll introduce scattered showers and thunderstorms into our forecast next Saturday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/03/overall-dry-and-pleasant-weather-continues/
Highlights:
- Dry close to the work week
- Mostly dry weekend
- Slightly cooler next week
Models Continue To Trend Drier…It was only a couple days ago that models were suggesting the threat of heavy rain and scattered strong storms this weekend- beginning Friday. In this business, it doesn’t take long for things to change sometimes, but this is the first legitimate change for the “drier” that we’ve seen with storm systems since winter. Time and time again as we draw closer to events, modeling has had to play “catch up” for the wetter over the past few months.
The end result is one that will feature a mostly dry weekend, including only isolated storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening (most stay dry) and scattered coverage Sunday. As a whole, many more dry hours are expected this weekend than stormy.
The other big takeaway over the past few days is the cool bias models have had. This is noted and documented and we’re adjusting our forecast accordingly moving forward. Drier and cooler air will arrive after Monday showers, but temperatures won’t run nearly as cool as once projected. For the second week in a row, very pleasant and refreshing weather is ahead for the middle of the week. Not bad, at all, by June standards.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/01/drier-trend-continues-this-weekend/
Highlights:
- Sunshine returns
- Very pleasant
- Weekend storms
- Much cooler next week
Very Pleasant…After a couple of gusty thundershowers overnight we’re quickly back to dry and very pleasant weather conditions today. Thankfully, sunshine and refreshing temperatures will continue Thursday.
Moisture begins to return as early as Friday afternoon and scattered late-day thunderstorms are possible. While scattered thunderstorms will continue Saturday, there will be more dry time than wet and stormy. The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will occur Sunday as a cold front moves in.
That cold front will be off to our east Sunday night and help usher in a much cooler feel early next week. Gusty northwest winds and a couple showers are still possible at times through early week. The bigger story will be the unseasonably cool temperatures as we expect highs in the upper 60s both Monday and Tuesday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/31/pleasant-now-weekend-storm-chances-return/
Highlights:
- Pleasant weather ahead
- Storm chances return to close the week
- Drier trend this weekend
Happy Memorial Day…Before we look forward to the rest of the week, a secondary cold front will pass this evening and a couple of showers could bubble up as sunset nears. These won’t be a big deal and should be quick movers with cooler, drier air building in overnight. That will set the stage for a very pleasant midweek stretch, temperature-wise. Another round of showers are possible Wednesday, but more dry time can be expected than wet.
More widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we close the work week and open the weekend. A cold front will push southeast Saturday morning and we’ll turn briefly warmer and more humid Friday with increasing thunderstorm chances during the back half of the day. Once the front slides to our south, drier and cooler air will quickly return. From this distance the weekend doesn’t look bad, at all. Unseasonably cool, dry air will continue next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/29/pleasant-weather-as-we-close-may/
Highlights:
- Much more dry time than stormy
- Timing storm chances
- Unseasonably cool open to June
Best Storm Chances Arrive Overnight…Low clouds and areas of fog should dissipate and give way to partial sunshine as we progress into the late morning and afternoon hours. A warm and humid feel will develop this afternoon.
The majority of the long race and holiday weekend will be free of any rain and storms, but we will continue to keep a close eye on the potential of more widespread storm activity:
Overnight tonight into early Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon.
Data would place more emphasis on the potential of widespread severe weather across southern parts of the state tonight. Damaging wind and hail are the primary concerns. Additionally, as a cold front rumbles into the warm and moist airmass in place Sunday afternoon, additional strong to severe storms may develop. These will be more scattered in nature when compared to the overnight round of storms, but any one particular neighborhood across central Indiana is fair game for getting wet for a brief time Sunday afternoon.
The cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and usher in a less humid and pleasant Memorial Day. We’ll keep an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday for shower chances, but think we’ll remain mostly rain-free. The region will be under a fast-paced northwest flow aloft and models can struggle with specifics associated with weak disturbances in that northwest flow. The next chance of storms arrives Friday, along with a warmer feel.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/27/more-dry-time-than-not-but-keeping-a-close-eye-on-storm-chances/
