Category Archives: Forecast

Complicated And Complex…

If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types.  In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”

Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:

A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.

Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south.  Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night…  Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night.  What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday.  That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).

We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above.  This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.

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Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, NAM Model, Rain, Short term update, snow, Snow/Ice Cover

Arctic Front Hits Tonight With Wind And Snow Squalls

Today will be briefly milder as a nice southwesterly air flow develops and helps send temperatures close to 40 degrees for the city, itself.  Though winds will be gusty, 40 degrees will seem awfully nice!  Enjoy!  It won’t last long though as our next major arctic front already has it’s eyes set on our region.  In fact, we think snow showers and embedded heavier squalls arrive just prior to midnight. These will be short, but intense, bursts of snow and will be capable of producing white out conditions, as well as leading to a quick 1-2″ of fresh snow tonight for many across central Indiana.

Here’s a look at forecast radar tonight, showing the heavy bursts of snow during the overnight.

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Winds will once again become a problem, gusting in excess of 30 MPH and helping drive in some dangerously cold air.  We think we fall below zero early Monday morning (before the rush hour begins in earnest) and anticipate yet another horrible Monday morning commute.

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This arctic air really tightens it’s grip heading into Tuesday and we think lows approach 15-20 degrees below zero Tuesday morning.  Below zero readings make it as far south as the southern Appalachians.

We’ll deal with yet another, potentially more widespread, winter event late in the week.  More on that in the coming days…  Enjoy your Sunday!

Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Models, snow, Windy

1st of 3 Rounds Of Wind-Whipped Snow This Weekend!

The first of three rounds of accumulating, wind-whipped, snow is blowing into central Indiana as I type this.  We still think widespread 2-3″ totals fall across many central Indiana neighborhoods during the overnight, with snow ending from north to south between 6-8am.  Additionally, blowing and drifting snow will be a huge concern and local white-outs/ near blizzard conditions will develop into the morning Saturday.  Needless to say, if you don’t have to travel tonight or Saturday, it would be a great time to hunker down at home, start a fire, and enjoy friends and family!

Here’s a look at forecast radar during the “height” of the storm, most likely between 2-4a for most areas:

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Snow will end Saturday morning, but we’ll have to contend with continued severe blowing and drifting, especially in central Indiana’s open country.  Remain cautious if you must venture out.  Winds will back around from the southwest during the wee morning hours Saturday to a colder (yet again) northwest direction late Saturday morning, resulting in another bitter feel to the air Saturday afternoon.

We’ll enjoy a brief calm period Saturday evening (despite continued gusty winds), but our meteorological eyes will already be poised to the northwest, focused on our next round of accumulating snow Sunday morning. We call this “warm advection” snow as it’ll fall on milder southwest winds ahead of yet another arctic front due in here Sunday night.  This will likely be a  “thumper” snow as additional accumulation Sunday of 1-3″ is a solid bet at this point- most of which falls within a 2-3 hour time period.

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Sunday afternoon will likely turn drier (and briefly milder) before that “famous” arctic front slams into the region Sunday night. We think additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will accompany the frontal passage (FROPA) and could easily lay down yet another half inch to one inch of accumulation Sunday night/ early Monday.

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All of this additional weekend snow will be capped off with some of the most brutally bitter air so far this season (and that’s obviously saying something, considering how cold it’s been). Gusty northwest winds will lead to continued blowing and drifting issues in the open country early next week, but produce dangerous wind chill values, colder than 30 degrees below zero from time to time.  Additionally, overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely fall to between 15 and 20 degrees below zero and highs on Tuesday will likely struggle just to make it to the 0 degree mark for a high…

Arctic Cold, Blizzard, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Windy

Combo Of Snow & Wind Likely To Cause Problems…

We wanted to take some time to focus solely on our next shot of accumulating snow due in here late Friday night into early Saturday morning.  This will be a quick-hitter, but with snow ratios much higher than normal (thanks to the arctic air mass in place), it won’t take much moisture to fluff up a few inches of powder.

Before we get into the next snow, we can’t ignore what will be a growing concern as morning progresses into afternoon Friday.  The pressure gradient will really begin to tighten between arctic high pressure to our south and the next cold front and associated low pressure to our north.  West winds will increase and gust in excess of 30 MPH by early to mid afternoon.  This will lead to concerns for blowing and drifting in the open country from the existing snow pack in place.  Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will begin to cloud up later in the afternoon and evening.

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A continued very windy evening will be coupled with light to moderate snow spreading south over the region late Friday night into Saturday morning.  We note the heaviest snow likely to fall in the pre dawn hours Saturday and may become briefly heavy at times.  We forecast 2-3″ of new snow with this system across all of central Indiana, but when you combine a strong west wind, shifting to the northwest Saturday morning, trouble will result.  Significant blowing and drifting snow can be expected through the night and into Saturday.  Travel will likely be very tough late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Not only will we have to contend with severe blowing and drifting, but we’ll also have to deal with local white-out conditions.

The latest high resolution model data shows widespread snow across the region Saturday morning before snow tapers by mid morning from north to south.

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As mentioned in posts from earlier this week, we’ll also deal with yet another round of accumulating snow for the second half of the weekend and we’ll have more on this tomorrow and Saturday…

Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Windy