Snow Builds Back In…As easy as the previous storm was, this one has been a royal pain in the neck. Stubbornly, I anticipated a further northwest shift (especially given the PNA state), but that’s not to be the case. While southern and southeastern Indiana will tack on a few additional inches with this storm, this is a 1″ to 2″ type deal for central Indiana, and most of that falls tomorrow morning into Thursday afternoon.
A few lingering light snow showers are possible Friday followed by clearing. High pressure will build overhead Friday night and set us up for another “nasty” cold night. Temperatures will likely rival where we are this morning come Saturday morning as winds go calm and skies clear.
The next potential trouble maker looms on the horizon Sunday. Models are beginning to slowly understand that we’re simply not going to dislodge all of this cold air in quick fashion. As such, a wintry mix and/ or wet snow is becoming increasingly likely by Sunday PM into Sunday night as this system blows through.
Quiet conditions return into early portions of the work week.
Averages: H: 41°/ L: 24° on the 17th –> H: 43°/ L: 26° on the 23rd
Keep That Head On A Swivel…Before we talk about what’s ahead, it was a snowy night across south-central Indiana. Many of the reports coming in from down that way indicate our 3″ to 5″ forecast played out quite nicely, including most common snowfall totals between 4″ and 5″ (with a few isolated heavier amounts). Thank you for those ground truth reports, friends! I know we’ve said it before, but they are more valuable than you know!
Now to look ahead. Storm systems will come flying through fast and furious over the upcoming 7-days. Scattered lingering snow showers and flurries today will give way to a steadier snow as we move into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is expected across far southern Indiana. After the 12z model suite is complete this afternoon, we’ll be back with a fresh look on expected snowfall amounts later this evening.
Friday appears to offer up a much needed one day breather from wintry systems with cold, dry conditions expected. Then our attention will shift to the weekend and threat of potentially a more significant winter storm. Guidance is trying to sort out which feature has the best chance of phasing into a more potent storm system. The GFS likes the lead wave this weekend while the European holds things off until early next week. Please stay tuned.
Best Day Of The Week…We can’t get too picky this time of year in the weather department. Long time fellow Hoosiers know to never take a day featuring sunshine for granted in early February. Though still chilly, given the pattern ahead, I’d recommend getting outside and enjoying some of those rays today.
A cold front blows into town Thursday and will deliver a chilly rain by the afternoon. As colder air rushes in on the backside of the system, rain will likely mix with and end as a period of snow across the northern half of the state Thursday evening. Though the moisture will be leaving as the cold air is arriving, we may still be able to squeeze out a dusting to 1″ of wet snow for northern areas.
Attention will then shift to an arctic wave that will move into the Ohio Valley this weekend. Snow will become widespread across the central Plains Friday evening into Saturday morning before expanding east into our neck of the woods Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With cold air in place, this will be a higher ratio snow event than we’ve seen so far this winter (“fluff factor” will be in full effect). Additionally, strong and gusty winds are expected during this time frame leading to blowing and drifting concerns. Stay tuned. We’ll take a stab at early accumulation numbers with this evening’s Client Video update.
Additional upper level energy will scoot through the region into early next week, keeping a supply of snow showers ongoing. While still cold, models have pushed back the truly dangerous cold until late week. Case of delayed, but not denied? Unfortunately think so…
No Rest For The Weary…A fast moving area of low pressure will scoot east this afternoon and evening. This will spread a swath of light to moderate snow across the southern half of the state in the 1p (west) to midnight (exiting southeastern portions of the state) window. While still primarily a light event, models have “beefed up” snow amounts ever so slightly with this system over the past 24 hours. Our snowfall forecast for system #1 can be found below.
Colder air will pour in for all during the overnight and should be just enough to kick up some lake-generated scattered snow shower activity into Thursday morning.
Weak high pressure will then build in and supply a sunny close to the work week. You enjoy the sun and briefly quieter weather and let us worry about the weekend!
Speaking of the weekend, this is the period that continues to look increasingly likely to produce the most impactful winter storm of the season for our immediate area. We forecast early sun to quickly give way to a lowering and thickening cloud canopy Saturday (the sky will have the looks of a snow storm brewing by lunch for most). Precipitation will then overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. The potential is there for a heavy wet snow thump Saturday PM before precipitation transitions to a wintry mix as low pressure scoot by just to our south. Before that transition, “several” inches of wet snow is looking increasingly likely. As colder air wraps back around into the region, wrap-around moisture will fall as light snow and snow showers into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/27/01-27-21-weather-bulletin-snow-builds-in-this-afternoon-for-the-southern-half-of-the-state-keeping-close-eyes-on-the-weekend/
Updated 01.25.21 @ 7:47a Before we dig into the other features ahead (in the video below), here’s a breakdown of expected impacts from the initial system to open the work…
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Fighting For That Sun To Return…Skies cleared overnight across central Indiana and this allowed temperatures to dip into the middle 20s (still about 5° above normal for most). Unfortunately, clouds are once again increasing this morning and will remain with us through the day. We’ll still hold out hope for a few breaks in the cloud cover from time to time through the weekend, but we can expect mostly cloudy conditions to persist.
Looking ahead, there’s really no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the forecast as quiet times remain. Our best opportunity to see more significant sunshine will likely come Tuesday. We’ll then eye a cold front that will pass through central Indiana as we close the work week. Gusty westerly to southwesterly winds can be expected ahead of this front Thursday. This will be a moisture starved system, but we could squeeze out a few scattered snow showers Friday.
Enjoy your Saturday. We’ll be back later this afternoon with a fresh Client Video update.
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Freezing Rain Changes To Rain; Accumulating Snow Tomorrow Night? Low pressure will track into the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Temperatures will slowly rise through the day, allowing freezing rain to transition to rain. Slick roads this morning will slowly improve through the afternoon.
Attention will then shift to a trailing piece of upper level energy Saturday night and Sunday morning. While thermal profiles are marginal at best, the track and strength of the upper level energy will lead to the potential of accumulating wet snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. These are the kind of systems that can manufacture their own cold and result in “surprise” snow events for some. As things stand now, we expect a band of accumulating snow to develop across central Indiana into western Ohio tomorrow night and Sunday morning. We’ll keep a close eye on data the rest of the day and update later this evening.
Weak high pressure will nose into the region as we kick off the new work week, allowing sunshine to return.
Rain Ends As Wet Snow This Evening…A cold rain will continue to overspread central Indiana this morning. A cold front will slip south across the state through the afternoon and temperatures will fall into the 30s prior to sunset across most of the region. One final wave of moisture will push northeast across the area as temperatures fall into the low and mid 30s leading to a brief period of wet snow between 6p and 10p (northeast to southwest). We’re likely only looking at a window of 1-2 hours of snow at any one location, but it could fall moderate to heavy during that brief window and accumulate between a dusting and 1.5″. We’ll keep an eye on model trends through the day.
New Year’s Eve will feature dry, but gloomy and cold conditions. Look for overcast skies and highs struggling to make it to freezing.
Our second area of low pressure will lift north from the northwestern Gulf Coast into the Midwest Friday and Saturday. This will help widespread precipitation overspread the Hoosier state New Year’s Day (before sunrise for most). With cold air locked in at the surface, precipitation at the onset, continuing for a few hours north of a line from Terre Haute, Bloomington, and Cincinnati, will fall as freezing rain. If traveling early, we’d recommend caution as a light icy glaze (less than .10″ for most) is a good bet. Eventually warmer air will win out, switching things to a “plain ole rain” late morning into the afternoon.
Lingering showers will end Saturday as a trailing piece of upper level energy moves east across the Ohio Valley. Dry skies will return as we open up the new work week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/30/12-30-20-weather-bulletin-timing-out-period-of-wet-snow-by-evening-icy-glaze-to-open-new-years-day/
Enjoy The Sun While You Can…Low clouds will slowly but surely clear out of here during the overnight and early Tuesday morning. This will allow for lows to go “deep” into the 20s for most central Indiana communities Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, just as soon as skies clear, our next storm is brewing off to the west.
Clouds will increase Tuesday evening- eventually giving way to rain Wednesday. This is “part 1” of the multi-faceted storm system that’s taking aim on the region as we close out 2020. Rain will overspread the state early Wednesday (pre-dawn NW, around sunrise for immediate central IN, and early-mid afternoon across SE parts of the state). Eventually the front will settle south, placing us in the colder zone Wednesday night and Thursday morning. With the colder air will also come a period of drier conditions. By this point low pressure will begin to organize along the NW Gulf Coast before lifting north. As this takes place, the same frontal boundary that settles south of our region will lift back north as a warm front New Year’s Day. Rain (potentially heavy at times) will accompany this event, continuing into early Saturday. (The bulk of our 7-day forecast rainfall amounts will fall New Year’s Day, itself). Overall, model consensus is warmer today than the past couple of days, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.
Colder, drier air will filter back into the region next weekend…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/28/12-29-20-weather-bulletin-one-more-dry-day-ahead-of-an-extended-period-of-unsettled-conditions/
