Category: Forecast
Highlights:
- Warm open to the work week
- T-storms return
- Weekend cold front
Active Times This Week…With the exception of patchy morning fog, the work week will get off to an uneventful start. Unseasonably warm conditions will continue with sunshine.
A storm system will move out of the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. This will help spread an initial round of showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana Tuesday morning, followed by more widespread showers and embedded thunder Tuesday evening into the predawn hours Wednesday. Drier and cooler air will return Wednesday afternoon and Thursday is shaping up to be the coolest day of the week (very close to our average high of 66° for the date).
The cool air won’t last long as a southerly air flow returns in advance of our next storm system. Saturday will be dry and breezy before clouds increase Sunday and scattered thunderstorms arrive Sunday afternoon and evening. A more significant shot of cool air will invade early next week behind the frontal passage.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/09/active-week-of-weather/
Highlights:
- Wet close to the work week for some
- Saturday storms
- Watching Nate
Unsettled Close To The Work Week…Thursday’s weather was just what the doctor ordered! Officially, here at IndyWx HQ, we recorded 0.73″. Many neighborhoods throughout central IN accumulated more than 1″ of much needed rainfall! Thankfully, additional rain chances are present as we wrap up the work week. Most widespread showers and embedded thunder will impact the northern half of the state Friday, especially the northern third of the state.
As we flip the page over to the weekend, mostly dry conditions can be expected, with the exception of a skinny line of thunderstorms that will blow through the state Saturday evening. These will come and go rather quickly and we’ll get into a slightly cooler and drier regime to wrap up the weekend.
Attention this weekend will be what comes of Nate. Overall, ideas haven’t changed over the past 24 hours, including an eventual late weekend landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. That said, precise all-important details concerning overall strength are still debatable. Interests along the north-central Gulf Coast should monitor updates closely. Here on the home front, we note subtle differences between the GFS and European in regards to inland impacts. For now, we’ll go with a blend between the two, thinking most of the more significant, steady rains remain southeast of central Indiana.
Eventually a cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday night. This will result in a NW wind shift and cooler air spilling in here later next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/05/more-rain-for-some-watching-nate/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, First frost, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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October 3, 2017
Highlights:
- Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
- Warm pattern continues
- Changes loom later next week
Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days. It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend. At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend. The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell. It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday. Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.
As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast. Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico. While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland. It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.
Back to the FROPA discussion: The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week. The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period. In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/03/bonus-summertime/
Highlights:
- Dry open to the work week
- Warming trend develops
- Turning more unsettled
Week Opens Dry; Ends Unsettled…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we open up the new work week. This will supply continued dry conditions along with a warming trend as our refreshing easterly flow transitions to the south.
This southerly air flow will help transport moisture northward as we progress into midweek and a “sluggish” front will begin to impact the area Wednesday evening into Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and as the front meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend. Forecast models differ on the evolution of things over the weekend and result in the sensible weather conditions ranging from more widespread showers and embedded thunder to more of a “splash and dash” variety of rain coverage. We’ll fine tune things as we progress through the week.
Much cooler air is forecast to return just past the current 7-day forecast period.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″- 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/01/warm-week-with-increasing-rain-chances/
Highlights:
- Cooler start
- Reinforcing cool air arrives Friday evening
- Warming back up next week
This Is More Like It…Cooler air worked into central Indiana overnight behind a cold front. If you ask us, a step out the door this morning feels much better than the past week (we’re ready for fall, y’all)! A reinforcing push of cool air will blow into town Friday evening and result in Saturday being the coolest day of the weekend with most remaining in the 60s for afternoon highs.
As we open up the new work week, our air flow will back around to the south and result in a new warming trend. An expanding ridge of high pressure will lead to continued dry conditions next week, along with unseasonably warm to hot temperatures.
Looking longer-term, there’s really no change in sight in the overall weather pattern through at least early October. That said, there are indications more significant changes loom towards mid-month that could result in more of an impactful shift to cooler times by the second half of the month (warm weather fans, keep in mind the other shoe has to drop sooner rather than later ;-)). As far as precipitation goes, while the short-term doesn’t offer any hope for dry weather relief, we’re confident of a big flip towards a wet pattern by late autumn and winter. Hang in there!
Fall Foliage: The early season cool air we experienced in late August and first half of September ignited early fall foliage across central Indiana. Unfortunately, the recent heat and expected warmer than average pattern through early October will really stunt that fall color change. As things stand now, this fall isn’t shaping up to be one of the better color seasons across the area.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/28/finally-feeling-like-fall-this-weekend/
Highlights:
- One more summer-like day
- Fall-like weekend
- Dry weather continues
Cooler Air Inbound…We have one more sultry day to get through as highs near record territory Tuesday with partly cloudy conditions prevailing. A frontal boundary will slip through the state Wednesday, but moisture will be limited with the frontal passage. If you pick up a quick shower Wednesday count yourself lucky. Most will remain rain-free. Cooler air will then settle into the state as we head into the weekend. If you have plans to head out to the pumpkin patch or apple orchard, ideal autumn weather will greet you!
Looking ahead, a new warming trend will develop next week and there’s no significant rainfall in sight, unfortunately.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.00″ – 0.10″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/25/dry-pattern-continues-cooling-off-for-the-weekend/
Highlights:
- Summer-like heat continues
- Dry times prevail
- Much cooler air looms
A Little Something For Everyone…If you’re a fan of summer, this forecast has it! If you’re a fan of fall, this forecast has that, too! Summer-like heat will dominate through the short-term with only a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Most will remain dry and that dry theme will carry us into the new work week ahead. Unseasonably hot (upper 80s to near 90 is downright hot) conditions will also continue as we open up the new week.
That said, a long advertised cold front will push towards the region by midweek and this will provide enough lift to create widely scattered thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday morning. Significant and widespread rains aren’t, unfortunately, anticipated. The bigger deal will be the much cooler air that will spill into the region Thursday and set the stage for an unseasonably cool open to October.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/21/summer-continues-into-next-week-before-cool-changes-take-over/
Highlights:
- Scattered t-storms
- Dry weather returns
- True summer-like feel
Unseasonably Warm Weather Continues…Similar to the past 24 hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the central Indiana landscape through midweek. As has been the case, there will continue to be “haves and have nots” over the next couple of days. Some neighborhoods will get lucky with localized slow moving downpours while others miss out entirely. All in all, it’s a very summer-like regime- both from a temperature/ humidity standpoint, as well as a precipitation perspective.
As we flip the page and head into the upcoming weekend, dry times will return. A big ole upper level ridge will balloon over the mid west and eastern portion of the country and this will serve to lead to a continuation of summer-like warmth- certainly well above average. It sure won’t feel like fall as we officially welcome in the new season Friday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/18/scattered-storms-summer-like-feel/
Highlights:
- Warmth builds
- Storms chances (finally) return
- Rinse and repeat
Summer Isn’t Finished Yet…We may be inching ever so much closer to the official start of autumn (next Friday), but don’t tell Mother Nature that. After an unusually cool close to August and open to September, we’re set to make up for lost time over the next couple of weeks. Heat will build and expand across the Mid West this weekend and that will set the tone for the upcoming forecast period.
Weather conditions should remain dry to kick off the weekend (great day for the Whitestown Brewfest, by the way), but moisture will return for the second half of the weekend. Combine the increasing moisture with enough lift and widely scattered thunderstorms will fire Sunday. Overall coverage won’t be particularly impressive, but will be a harbinger of things to come as the new week unfolds. A couple of surface fronts will push up against the strong ridge in place as we progress through the work week. While these will “wash out” over the Ohio Valley, they’ll be sufficient enough to provide scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms next week. Our parched soils will take anything they can get!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/15/still-some-summer-left-in-the-tank/
Highlights:
- Showers and breezy conditions thanks to what’s left of Irma
- Sunshine returns
- Warmth builds
Irma’s Remnants…What’s left of Irma will begin to impact the state today. As promised, this won’t be a big deal, locally. We’ll notice scattered to numerous showers lifting north through the day, continuing Wednesday. Greatest overall rainfall coverage across central parts of the state should occur tonight into Wednesday. We’ll also note east and northeast winds gusting over 20 MPH at times. All in all, not a big weather event in the least for our region and our thoughts and prayers remain with our neighbors to our south beginning clean up/ rebuilding efforts.
High pressure will return as we wrap up the work week and move into the weekend. Additionally, a southerly air flow will help pump unseasonably warm conditions northward to encompass the Ohio Valley and Mid West. Our next weather maker will be a cold front that will make a run at the region Monday. Early indications are this front will “wash out” as it nears the region with only a few showers/ embedded thunder expected.
Looking ahead, much more active times loom as we progress through late September and open October…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/12/irmas-remnants-limp-into-the-region-warming-up-this-weekend/
