Category: Forecast

A Word On Meteoroligcal Winter

We wanted to take a moment and discuss the 2014-2015 meteorological winter.  Going into the winter, we knew this would be one of many challenges. The nearly ideal SST profile…

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A Lot To Discuss…

Good evening, friends!  As promised, there’s a lot on the weather menu over the course of the upcoming several days.  Let’s get right into the details.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 3a-12p for all of the region to account for the sleet and freezing rain situation we’ll deal with late tonight into the first half of Tuesday.  We still expect significant travel issues and overall impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.

Forecast radar shows freezing rain spreading into the region between 3 and 4am.

1Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue for the better part of the morning hours as temperatures likely won’t climb above freezing until early Tuesday afternoon, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast.

Forecast temperatures at 12p Tuesday.

hires_t2m_indy_24We still don’t anticipate many big time flooding concerns as a.) temperatures won’t warm all that much (we MAY reach 40 Tuesday evening, but that’s a big question mark) and b.) most of the heavy rain will remain south of central Indiana.

Here’s expected liquid-equivalent totals through Wednesday morning.

2The next concern is the threat of accumulating snow for central and southern portions of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Arctic high pressure will limit the northern extent of significant precipitation, but, as mentioned previously, energy rounding the base of the trough will ignite another wave of low pressure to move along the pressing arctic front.  As of now, we target areas along and south of the I-70 corridor most under the gun for a potentially impactful snow storm Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

3The individual GFS ensemble members have also been trending north and overall more excited about snow prospects, as well.

7The other item on the agenda is a shot of record cold in here for late week.  Sub-zero lows are a good bet by Friday morning.  Highs Thursday will push for a new record low maximum temperature.

4

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Icy Tuesday Morning…

We continue to be very concerned about the likelihood of an icing event across central Indiana late tonight into early Tuesday afternoon. A significant snowpack in place won’t allow temperatures…

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Busy Weather Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2015-03-01 at 10.09.08 AMImpressive Snowstorm…Heavy snowfall rates are occurring within localized bands through central and north-central Indiana as we type this.  Within those bands, expect an additional 1″-2″ today.  That’s on top of widespread 6″ to 7″ reports throughout the region.  (By the way- thank you so much for your snowfall reports and photos)!  We love to see them!

Outside of the heavy snow bands, a general light snow will begin to diminish by late afternoon/ early evening as drier air moves in behind a cold front.  Colder air will also roll into town tonight and Monday.

Our next storm will provide a wintry mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain Tuesday morning before transitioning to rain.  That said, data that suggested we would see 50 degree+ highs Tuesday are finally coming to the realization we have quite the snowpack across the area.  We’ll rise into the lower 40s, but cold air will rush right back in here Tuesday night and Wednesday and potentially set us up for a very interesting mid week period.

For now model data ranges between a significant winter storm to simply dry and bitterly cold.  We’ll split the difference for now and maintain mention of snow in our Wednesday forecast as secondary energy develops a wave of low pressure along the pressing front.  Does that winter storm impact the Ohio Valley or areas of the Deep South?  We’ll continue to sort through the details.  I will say the UKMET has been most consistent of our forecast models over the past several weeks, and it’s quite bullish on the Ohio Valley winter storm scenario.  Never a dull moment around these parts…

Regardless of what happens Wednesday, fresh bitter cold air will pour in here to wrap up the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 8″ – 11″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″

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Touching Base On Saturday Evening…

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