Category Archives: Forecast

Periods Of Heavy Rain & Strong-Severe Storms To Open The Work Week…

An unsettled open to the work week is upon us. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected this morning through Wednesday morning.  Tuesday will present the most widespread thunderstorms and a few of these could reach strong-to-severe levels.  Locally heavy rain can be expected at times.  The greatest concerns from a severe perspective center around large hail and damaging straight line winds, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

Most widespread coverage of storms will arrive Tuesday.

Heaviest rain amounts will fall across eastern parts of the state where widespread 1″ to 2″ with locally higher amounts are expected by Wednesday morning.  With that said, localized 1″+ amounts will also fall across northwest parts of the state as shown on the latest high resolution NAM.

The frontal boundary will sweep through the state late Tuesday and allow a cooler and drier air mass to filter into the region Wednesday.  You’ll notice a true fall feel out the door Wednesday morning- low to mid 50s.  Highs Wednesday afternoon will remain in the 60s.

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Periods Of Heavy Rain Move In For The 2nd Half Of The Week…

Tuesday will remain dry across central Indiana with plentiful sunshine and warm temperatures.  The quiet times will give way to unsettled conditions as we progress through the second half of the week, including periods of locally heavy rain.

This is all part of a pattern that will remain active around these parts.  We note the latest European model delivers three storm systems between now and this time next week.  Each of these systems will be capable of producing hefty rainfall across the region.

In the more immediate term, after a dry Tuesday, rain will arrive on the scenes Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast radar 1p Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Rainfall coverage and overall intensity will increase as Wednesday evening gives way to night, continuing into Thursday morning.

Forecast radar 11p Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
Forecast radar 6a Thursday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Note the high resolution models suggesting widespread precipitable water values (PWATs) in excess of 2″.  This is a significant ingredient that will help fuel heavy rain Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

As mentioned above, a couple of other storm systems promise for continued unsettled times over the weekend and on into early next week.  When we total things up by the middle of next week, both the GFS and European model agree on widespread 3″ to 5″ totals.

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