Category: Forecast

Jun 09

Hello Summer…

Screen Shot 2015-06-09 at 9.13.29 PMHighlights:

  • Big time heat and humidity through late week
  • Watching storm chances Wednesday night
  • Briefly drier air Saturday
  • Summer-like pattern continues next week

The big weather story over the second half of the week will be the heat and humidity.  Many will reach, or exceed, the 90 degree mark Wednesday and/ or Thursday.  We’ll keep a close eye on the northern portions of the state for storms to initialize Wednesday afternoon/ evening.  Those at greatest risk for strong to severe storm potential will be from areas along and north of the I-70 corridor Wednesday evening.  Damaging winds and hail are of biggest concern.

A cold front will slide into the area Friday and provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night.  Latest model runs then deliver a briefly drier surge of air Saturday and we’ll lean in that direction with our Saturday forecast for now.  Don’t get used to the drier air as heat and humidity will be plentiful early next week, along with renewed shower and storm chances.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1″ – 1.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hello-summer/

Jun 08

Storms Tonight; Heat Builds This Week…

Screen Shot 2015-06-08 at 5.57.06 PMHighlights:

  • Stormy tonight for some
  • Heat builds this week
  • Better storm chances return for the weekend

A cold front remains off to our northwest as we type this and big storms are firing across northern portions of the state.  We’ll keep a close eye on those as they move southeast tonight and begin to pick up more forward momentum in the coming hours.  They’ve had a history of producing damaging hail.  Remain weather-aware this evening.

Thankfully we’ll begin to inject a drier air mass (briefly) into the region Tuesday.  A nice day is coming with lower humidity.  Most of the second half of the work week will also remain dry, but as humidity increases we have to mention the threat of an isolated to widely scattered storm.  The big story will be the heat as highs push into the 90 degree territory.  Prepare to sweat!

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will push back into the region over the upcoming weekend.  We’re not forecast a complete washout either Saturday or Sunday, but with a very humid air mass in place, any shower or storm that develops will have the capability of producing torrential downpours.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/storms-tonight-heat-builds-this-week/

Jun 07

Very Active Night Ahead…

An active and noisy night is on tap, friends, as multiple storm clusters move through central Indiana.  Initially, the concern is hoisted for severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. As the night progresses, the growing concern will be flash flooding as storms train over the same area, potentially leading to 3″+ rains in localized areas.

We’re currently eyeing convection firing to our northwest and these storms will push southeast this evening.  They will move into a very warm, humid, and unstable environment and will likely strengthen as they ride into north-central IN later this evening.  Here’s a snap shot of the radar valid at 8p:

8pNote as we progress into the overnight, additional storms are likely and flooding concerns are on the rise due to this. Radar valid at 3a:

3aRainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be common tonight across central IN, but some localized reports of 3″-4″ can’t be ruled out where storms train.  Here’s a look at potential rainfall numbers through 5a:

hrrr_t_precip_indy_16We note PWATs (precipitable water values) pushing close to 2″ overnight and this increases our confidence on the heavy rainfall potential, as well:

hires_pwat_indy_20Stay weather-aware tonight, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/very-active-night-ahead/

Jun 03

Warmer Days; Continuing To Watch Sunday Evening…

Screen Shot 2015-06-03 at 9.37.15 PMHighlights:

  • More like summer
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Keeping a close eye on Sunday night storm threat
  • Unsettled to open the week

The story to wrap up the work week will be one much more typical of early June- warmer days are on deck with increasing humidity.  The combination of the increasingly muggy air mass coupled with a weak upper level disturbance, could ignite a shower or storm Friday.  Most of the day will be dry, however.  The upcoming weekend will feature beautiful weather conditions- dry and warm to hot.  We continue to watch a storm complex that could deliver a round of strong to severe cells (damaging straight line winds being the biggest concern) Sunday evening and night. We’ll have to tighten up potential timing as we progress closer to Sunday, but think most of the daytime hours will be dry.  Early next week will likely open a bit unsettled.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warmer-days-continuing-to-watch-sunday-evening/

Jun 01

Chilly Now, But Warmer Days Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-06-01 at 10.16.25 PMHighlights:

  • Unseasonably chilly air begins to moderate
  • Dry weather returns
  • Eyeing the next cold front late in the weekend

The past couple of days have felt more like late spring or fall rather than the first day of meteorological summer (June, July, August).  No need to fret, however, as milder air will return beginning Tuesday afternoon…after another very chilly start.  The next couple of days will feature plenty of sunshine!  Enjoy!  Moisture will slowly begin to increase to end the week and an isolated to widely scattered storm chance will accompany the warmer, more humid air.  Best rain and storm chances look to come Sunday as a cold front moves closer.  Drier and cooler air will work back into the region Monday evening.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/chilly-now-but-warmer-days-coming/