Category: Forecast Models

Apr 09

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

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combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

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The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/

Apr 03

Friday Morning Thoughts…

1.) First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers go out to our neighbors to our south this morning as a serious flood situation is underway.

Unfortunately, more rain is ahead today and will include our region across central Indiana.  Waves of rain and embedded thunder will continue into the evening.

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2.) A much colder air mass will arrive this afternoon and evening along with a gusty northwest wind.  Wind chills will fall into the 20s by evening.  Eventually we’ll bottom out in the upper 20s Saturday morning.

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3.) Easter weekend will feature beautiful weather across the area, thanks to high pressure.  Though it’ll be cold Saturday morning, lots of sunshine will warm us quickly.

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4.) Wet and stormy times return next week, including multiple days of heavy rain potential and possibly strong to severe thunderstorms.  In short, a very active week is on deck.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-thoughts-2/

Mar 31

Wet, Stormy, And Warm…

Those are the words to sum up the mid to long range. While we’ll deal with a brief Easter weekend cool down, the overwhelming signals in the mid to long…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-stormy-and-warm/

Mar 30

Warmer And Stormy Look…

We’re shifting gears into more of a spring like weather pattern over the course of the next 4-6 weeks. Things appear to get rather active and warmer than average, as…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warmer-and-stormy-look/

Mar 27

A Wintry Feel To Close The Week…

A big trough has carved itself out over the eastern portions of the country to wrap up the work week.   This will provide an unseasonably cold feel today and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-wintry-feel-to-close-the-week/