Nov 05
As promised, we wanted to provide some thoughts around the updated sea surface temperature constructed analog model that was released this morning. In short, there aren’t many huge differences from…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/updated-sst-ca-model-is-in-the-house/
Nov 04
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-morning-video-update-tricky-temperature-forecast-today-looking-ahead/
Nov 03
The latest SST configuration has to continue putting a smile on the face of central and eastern winter lovers for the upcoming season. We’re not going to feel anything…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rambling-around-on-an-early-november-morning/
Oct 30
As we scan the latest computer models this morning we really see no reason to deviate from our forecast already out there on Halloween. While it shouldn’t be a complete…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/closer-look-at-halloween-weather/
Oct 26
After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.
Here’s the plot line…
The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.
Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.
BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.
As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.
Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/contradiction-in-model-world/