Category: Forecast Models

Apr 27

Warmer Days Coming, But Cool Continues In The Short Term…

Screen Shot 2015-04-27 at 10.18.12 PMHighlights:

  • Cool weather continues through mid week
  • Upper low spawns shower chance Wednesday-Thursday
  • Dry, warmer close to the week
  • Much warmer and more humid early next week with storm chances

1After a cool open to the work week, the next couple of days will continue a similar theme.  We’ll enjoy more sunshine Tuesday when compared to Monday afternoon and temperatures should be a degree or two warmer.

Attention will shift to a potent upper level area of low pressure dropping across the region in the mid week time period.  This will do two things of note- provide reinforcing cool air and help create a scattered shower chance in the Wednesday-Thursday time period. (Scattered 0.10″ to 0.25″ rainfall amounts).

Weather conditions will begin to relax as we put a wrap on the work week.  Expect increasing sunshine and a much warmer pattern.

Warmth and humidity will continue to build early next week and help add fuel to storm potential.

2It’s a rather anomalous look to the 500mb (upper air pattern) charts for mid week, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.  A potent upper level low will dive southeast across the region and help spawn a shower chance, along with provide a much cooler feel of things Wednesday night into Thursday.  Surface low pressure will develop along the SE coast (in response to the UL energy diving southeast) that will provide a windy/ rainy end to the week across coastal regions down east.

3Warmer days are ahead, and more humid days, as well.  Our wind flow will back to the southwest late in the weekend and early next week.  Temperatures will respond, but so will humidity levels.  Throw in a little energy and you have the makings for stormy times to open up next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warmer-days-coming-but-cool-continues-in-the-short-term/

Apr 26

Warm May On The Way?

As our attention shifts to May, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the upcoming month. Due to licensing issues, we’re not allowed to share all of the forecast models that we look at here with you, but did want to give you an idea of some of the data we’re looking at.

The month is likely to open up with an anomalous pattern in place, including one that will support a rather significant coastal storm along the SE coast.  That said, as we progress a bit deeper into the month, guidance suggests a much warmer pattern awaits for those locally across the Ohio Valley and Mid West.

Using a combination of model guidance, here’s an idea of what we’re projecting the upper air pattern to look like as we open the month and progress into the middle of the month.

May1

May10th

As a whole, the majority of forecast data, including analogs of weak El Nino events of the past would imply a warmer than normal May is on the way.  Note the warmer anomalies across the mid South and Ohio Valley region.

Screen Shot 2015-04-26 at 9.23.21 AM

 

 

 

 

 

The CFSv2 also is in agreement with the warm idea for May.  Areas where cooler air will be more likely?  The SW and northern tier regions.


Precipitation for April has been running above normal across our region and across the southeast, as a whole.  This is a good sign if you don’t like exceptionally hot and dry summers.  Precipitation this time of year can set the tone for both as we move into the summer months ahead.

  

For the month of May, we anticipate near normal precipitation (right around 5″), but stress that precipitation isn’t always uniform this time of year as thunderstorms can dump locally heavier totals.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-may-on-the-way/

Apr 24

Wet Saturday Coming…

After another frost and freeze across central Indiana this morning, attention begins to shift to wet times ahead Saturday. Most of today will be rain-free and feature sunshine, but this…

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Apr 23

Another Frosty Night Coming…

Temperatures dipped to between 30°-32° for many central IN neighborhoods this morning. After sunshine and an unseasonably cool afternoon, temperatures will fall to similar levels tonight and Friday morning. As…

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Apr 20

Heading In The Wrong Direction…

Screen Shot 2015-04-20 at 3.32.01 PMHighlights:

  • Prolonged unseasonably cool weather
  • Band of showers late Tuesday night/ early Wednesday
  • Frost potential late week
  • Watching a storm system Friday night/ Saturday

SAT_ERG2_VIS_ANISurface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN.  Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing.  It’s a gusty day and that will continue.  Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers.  Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period.  The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday.  Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track.  Stay tuned.

1Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.

2The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend.  The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.

3Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends.  After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/heading-the-wrong-direction/