Category: Forecast Models

Nov 27

Extended Stretch Of Raw Conditions…

Screen Shot 2015-11-27 at 7.13.46 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning colder
  • Finally begin to dry things out

We sure hope you enjoyed those pleasant conditions on Thanksgiving Day, as rain (and eventually colder air) is settling in for the long haul.

The overall set-up shows a cold front slicing it’s way through the mid section this morning.  This front will continue to slowly settle southeast and much colder air will “ooze” into the area directly behind the boundary later tonight and Saturday.  Unfortunately, once the front passes to our south, additional disturbances will move along the front and enhance rain across our area from time to time over the weekend.

Here’s a snap shot, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, of what we the surface map/ simulated radar may look like as we rumble through the Thanksgiving weekend.

FridayMap

SaturdayMap

SundayMapAs mentioned above, the temperature story will also be a focal point later tonight.  Notice the incredible difference within just a matter of miles as we go deeper into the weekend.  While central IN will be in the “transition” period tonight, all of the area will be on the cold side of the boundary Saturday.  That forecast high in the upper 40s that you see above in our 7-day will be at midnight as most of tomorrow will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

8pFriTemp

Sat4pTempWe’ll continue to deal with unsettled and rather “raw” conditions into the early portions of next week, but we should finally be able to shake the damp conditions by Wednesday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on yet another system late next week, but models keep this storm to our south as of now.  Stay tuned.

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Nov 23

Rain Moving In Late Thanksgiving…

First, I apologize for the lack of posts today. I had my first (and hopefully only) encounter with food poison yesterday evening and it’s taken most of the day to…

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Nov 22

Frigid Start; Looking Ahead To Thanksgiving…

Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 9.27.08 AMHighlights:

  • Arctic air begins to moderate
  • Next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving
  • Another punch of cold air next weekend

Before we discuss what lies ahead, let’s look back at yesterday’s snow event that “overachieved” for many.  Particularly just northwest of the city where 2″-4″ fell.  Snowfall rates were heavy enough to overcome the initially warm surface temperatures, and it was very impressive to see the way the snow accumulated considering this was a November event that took place from late morning into the early afternoon (when the sun angle does the majority of it’s work).  This was an impressive first snow of the season and this morning’s snowpack is widespread throughout the Mid West.

nsm_depth_2015112205_MidwestThe visible satellite this morning shows the snow cover across the central and northern portions of the state, where single digits and teens were common.

SnowpackThe next few days will feature dry and cold conditions.  While we’ll remain below average, temperatures will slowly begin to moderate from the arctic intrusion of today.

We’ll get into a SW (milder air flow) regime for a brief period of time Thanksgiving Day out ahead of our next storm system that will move in Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday.  Clouds will increase and moisture will spread into the region during the aforementioned time period.  Most of the rain will fall Friday, so plan on taking the rain gear with you as you venture out to begin that Christmas shopping.

Thanksgiving

BlackFridayMuch colder air will pour into the region Thanksgiving weekend and we’ll have to maintain a close eye on the evolution of things late next weekend into early December.  Models will continue to waiver on specific solutions over the next few days, but there will be an attempt of a southern stream storm system coming out and “attacking” the cold air in place…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-start-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving/

Nov 20

Potent System; Friday Evening Thinking…

This evening’s radar shows our potent weather maker providing a plethora of weather elements to our west.  Anything from heavy snow (numerous 12″ + reports coming in across IA) to thunderstorms across MO have made for an active Friday evening.

9pRadarThinking hasn’t changed much from the get go with this storm system, but we wanted to “freshen” things up a bit before bed.

Rain will overspread central IN through the morning hours before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon.  This transition will occur in a northwest to southeast fashion as colder air wraps into the region.

Here’s a timeline (thanks to Weatherbell.com) of what the radar may look like as Saturday morning progresses into Saturday afternoon.

8aSat

12pSatAs rain transitions to snow, it’ll likely come down rather “fast and furious” for a time before ending.  Despite what may be moderate to heavy snow for a time (especially along and north of the I-70 corridor- there’s the “magic” dividing line again :-)), warm surface temperatures will really limit what snow will actually accumulate.  As things stand now, we still forecast a widespread 2″-4″ snowfall across the northern portions of the state, with 4″-6″ amounts in favored lake effect areas.  Farther south to include central IN, a dusting to less than 1″ is a good bet before precipitation ends.

The growing concern Saturday night will be a stiff northwest wind driving MUCH colder air into the region.  This will help power a brief lake effect event across NE areas of the state before shutting down quickly by the wee morning hours Sunday.

LakeEffectAny lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze up quickly tomorrow night.  With a deep snowpack just to our north, the NW flow will keep things very cold around these parts into early next week.  Note widespread teens Sunday morning across north-central IN and even this might not be cold enough.  If we lay the expected snowfall down, don’t be surprised by some single digit temperatures (not counting wind chill values) across north-central IN Sunday morning.  Highs Sunday will remain below freezing for most.

‘Tis the season!  More in the AM, and happy snow dreams to all!

teens

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Nov 19

Saturday Snow…

There’s just something special about seeing the first flakes of the season.  While this initial wintry event won’t be a big deal accumulation-wise for central IN, a few inches of snow will be likely across northern portions of the state Saturday.  Here’s our initial snowfall forecast, brought to you by the IndySportsReport.com.112115SnowForecast1stLookThe next two days will be easy and rather “boring” as far as the weather goes.  Look for more in the way of sunshine today before clouds begin increasing as Friday progresses into evening.  The initial push of moisture should reach central IN Friday night (as rain).  Rain will then transition to snow showers before ending across central IN Saturday morning into the early afternoon.  Farther north, look for a quicker transition to snow where we forecast a 2″-4″ type accumulation event for places along and north of a Newton County to De Kalb County line.  This is an early call and may require some fine tuning as we go through the next 24 hours.  We’re about as confident as we can be with the forecast at this juncture, but do note a couple differences with the track of the low between the various models we use.

Here’s the track set-up:

A wave of low pressure will “scoot” east, northeast Friday into Saturday as highlighted here by the fine folks at Weatherbell.com.

FriEvening

FriNight

SaturdayMorningEnough of a south wind will keep us just warm enough to provide mainly a rain event for central and southern portions of the state.  Colder air will be deeper and more entrenched across northern IN where this should be a mainly snow event.  As the winds quickly whip around to the NW Saturday morning, temperatures will plummet and lingering moisture will quickly transition to snow for all of the state.

Behind the rain-to-snow event Saturday morning, the coldest air of the season will plunge into the state.  Lows Sunday morning will fall into the teens for many of central IN, especially if we can lay down a snow cover up north.  Throw in a gusty NW wind and wind chill values in the single digits are a good bet.

Can things still change with the track of this storm?  Absolutely.  While we feel as confident as we can be at this stage in the game, we do note a couple differences with the track of this area of low pressure (as mentioned above) between the various computer models we use.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.  One other item of note is the relatively warm surface temperatures and that will cut back on accumulations across not only central, but northern parts of the state, as well.  Much more later!

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