Updated 11.14.22 7:52a
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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/14/video-cold-pattern-gets-even-colder-moving-into-the-weekend-additional-opportunities-for-light-accumulating-snow/
Nov 13
January In November…
Updated 11.13.22 @ 8a
After a record snowfall Saturday, we’re left with a dry and unseasonably cold start to the new week. Quick tip: we suggest getting accustomed to the cold as it’s not going anywhere fast.
Note how the ensemble guidance below keeps well below normal temperatures locked in over the upcoming couple weeks.
Our next storm system will approach quickly. Low pressure will track out of the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday. This will allow precipitation to overspread the region from southwest to northeast early Tuesday morning (likely before sunrise for most). With the unseasonably cold air in place, most, if not all, of this precipitation should take the form of light snow. Additional light accumulation of snow is a good bet for Indiana, including southern portions of the state, Tuesday.
Behind this system, reinforcing cold air will pour southeast midweek with wrap around snow showers along with a gusty northwest breeze. Temperatures will likely be hard pressed even to make it above freezing by late next week and early Thanksgiving week, including overnight lows deep into the 10s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/13/january-in-november/
Nov 12
Morning Snow “Thump” Gives Way To Afternoon Snow Showers…
Updated 11.12.22 @ 7:05a
0.8” is the average November snowfall in Indianapolis. We have no changes to our ideas from yesterday with most across the region picking up anywhere from 0.5” to 1.5”, but there will likely be a couple 2”-3” reports by the time the “system” snow diminishes towards lunchtime. Please keep us posted on what you see. Despite relatively warm ground conditions, the time of day that the snow is falling along with the intensity should be more than enough to even generate slushy road conditions at times as well. Take it slow and allow yourself extra time to reach your destination if traveling this morning.
After this morning’s “thump” of snow moves to the northeast, lake effect snow showers and embedded squalls will scoot southeast across the state. These won’t add much to the morning accumulation. Temperatures will then fall into the middle 20s for most tonight.
Don’t look now but another accumulating snow event will likely ride into town Tuesday…
Back-to-back accumulating snow events are tough to come by around these parts in mid November. Flip off a dime and an early start to the snow season, indeed…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/12/morning-snow-thump-gives-way-to-afternoon-snow-showers/
Nov 11
‘Mean’ Early Winter Pattern Showing Itself Over The Next Couple Weeks?
Updated 11.11.22 @ 7:46a
As we “set the stage” over the upcoming week, we must start with the strong cold front that will push east across the state this afternoon. Temperatures will begin to fall by mid to late afternoon before “dropping off the cliff” tonight. 🙂 I think we’ll be hard pressed to experience temperatures anywhere close to the relative mild air that we’re still enjoying the morning, at least through Thanksgiving.
This is all part of the leading edge of a significantly colder pattern moving east, and this is a pattern that has staying power. Considering how warm we’ve been to open November, it’ll come as a shock to some.
Perhaps more interesting to some are the prospects of wintry precipitation. There’s growing indication that the primary storm track may, indeed, take a favorable position for early wintry “fun and games” across the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana over the course of the next couple weeks as a whole.
The first feature is one that has a looks of an “over-achiever” and it’ll arrive as early as tomorrow morning. This is thanks to a couple features: a surface wave trailing the base of an eastward progressing trough, along with a piece of upper level energy diving southeast across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The 2 features will allow an expanding area of snow to blossom across the state (focusing on central and eastern Indiana) tomorrow morning and this should accumulate in spots, especially on grassy areas: 0.50” to 1.5”. Despite relatively warm ground temperatures, the expected timing of the snowfall and intensity should be enough to generate the aforementioned accumulation numbers for places like Indianapolis, Muncie, Greensburg, and surrounding areas.
“System snow” will then be followed by wind-whipped scattered lake-enhanced snow showers Saturday evening. These will be most numerous across northern IN but a few will sneak into central and southern IN as well.
If this isn’t enough for you snow lovers out there, keep an eye on 2 systems next week: Tuesday into Wednesday and again late next weekend.
I still don’t think modeling has come around to the correct idea of handling the southern stream energy associated with the Tuesday system. While there isn’t any reason to get overly cute with this one from this distance, we’ll want to keep close attention for the chance of additional accumulating snow potential Tuesday.
Finally, at least from this distance, it appears as if there may be some additional chances of wintry precipitation Thanksgiving week.
Not a bad pattern by November standards, huh? That is at least if you’re a winter weather fan…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/11/mean-early-winter-pattern-showing-itself-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Nov 10
Long Range Outlook: Jab, Jab, Boom?
Updated 11.10.22 @ 9:18a
After a warm open to November, things are progressing to plan as our much anticipated mid month shift to cold takes place.
A quick glance at the teleconnections over the course of the next couple weeks (remember, we still lean heaviest on the PNA and EPO at this time of the year) reveals agreement in the short term of the cold shift but note movement back towards neutral towards the end of the period.
While this may give reason for panic to some, we note the MJO scheduled to move out of Phase 8 (currently), whip across the “null” phase before moving into textbook phases for eastern cold for late November (Phases 5-6).
The analogs for such phases this time of year will make winter weather fans salivate.
Despite this setup laid out above, the new JMA Weeklies want none of my idea of a cold start to December. Despite the chilly look Weeks 1-2, the model rolls right into an eastern ridge by early December. It’s safe to say as of now, I remain in the cold camp, especially given what the MJO amplitude should provide as we rumble into the last month of the year. Nonetheless, it’s less than ideal to see a normally trusted model in such disagreement and we’ll have to keep an eye on trends over the course of the next couple weeks…
Perhaps the model is seeing a transitional move through Phase 7? That would allow a milder pattern in briefly, but again I would reiterate the look of what should be an amplified MJO as we move into December and a jaunt through Phase 8, 1, and 2 is likely in my opinion. Just for fun, this is what those phases provide.
One way or another, we have a lot of work (and fun) ahead. My hunch tells me any long range (what would currently be Week 4 in particular) data will be forced to cool, and perhaps significantly so, as time draws closer.
In the meantime, don’t sleep on next week. There should be at least one attempt for some sort of winter weather maker into the Ohio Valley, if not two.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/10/long-range-outlook-jab-jab-boom/
Nov 10
VIDEO: Transition To A Colder Pattern Rolls In…
Updated 11.10.22 @ 7:24a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/10/video-transition-to-a-colder-pattern-rolls-in/
Nov 09
VIDEO: Enjoy 2 More Days Of Warmth; Pattern Turns More Winter-Like Over The Weekend And Into Next Week…
Updated 11.09.22 @ 7:42a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/09/video-enjoy-2-more-days-of-warmth-pattern-turns-more-winter-like-over-the-weekend-and-into-next-week/
Nov 08
VIDEO: Warm Weather Party Comes To A Crashing End This Weekend; All Eyes On Nicole…
Updated 11.08.22 @ 6:20a
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Nov 07
VIDEO: Nicole Makes Landfall Along The Eastern FL Peninsula Midweek; MUCH Colder Pattern Emerges Over The Weekend…
Updated 11.07.22 @ 7:03a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/07/video-nicole-makes-landfall-along-the-eastern-fl-peninsula-midweek-much-colder-pattern-emerges-over-the-weekend/
Nov 06
The Transition To Winter…
Updated 11.06.22 @ 10:47a
“Wintry” is certainly not a word that comes to mind when describing the first week of November ‘22. Indianapolis is running a whopping 11.4° above normal month to date.
The upcoming several days will feature additional well above normal warmth, including highs in the mid 60s to around 70°. The reasons behind the warmth have been well advertised between the MJO and teleconnections. This is all part and parcel to the SST configuration, including the 3rd consecutive La Niña fall.
But things are changing now and arriving right on schedule. It’s wild, really, when you think of the ability to find answers to the future (upcoming pattern evolution) by looking back at the past.
We note the teleconnections are now beginning to align in a manner that will drive colder than normal conditions east. The MJO also has a look that will try and circle back into Phase 6 mid to late month. To add to the complexity of the pattern transition, a late season hurricane will likely hit the Florida peninsula mid to late week before recurving up the eastern seaboard.
A cold front will blow through the state Friday and while it’ll likely be moisture starved, unlike this past front, there will be a sharp temperature drop behind the frontal passage over the weekend.
How about a week from today highs are only in the mid-upper 30s and lows may dip into the upper 10s and lower 20s. Indications are that the overall colder than normal regime will have staying power, too. While wholesale pattern transitions can be finicky at the onset, there’s a belief on this front that the overall regime will feature more sustainable cold and eventually opportunities for wintry precipitation as we close November and open up December.
There’s no change to the ideas here of the bulk of the holiday season this year (Thanksgiving to New Years) providing above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures. At the very least, there should be a lot of “fun and games” ahead over the upcoming weeks.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/06/the-transition-to-winter/