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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-weekend-weather-talk-and-looking-into-next-week/
Oct 19
VIDEO: Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-quick-wednesday-evening-video-update/
Oct 18
VIDEO: Colder Changes To Close The Week; Wet Thursday Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-colder-changes-to-close-the-week-wet-thursday-ahead/
Oct 16
Remarkable Summer Feel Through Mid Week; Late Week Changes…
Before we talk about the warmth, we have some showers and embedded thunder to deal with across parts of the region today. Best rain chances today will be along and north of I-70, but a few showers could scoot south later this afternoon. We note most concentrated rain should fall through the early afternoon hours before moving out to allow for a dry evening.
Forecast radar 12p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
We get back to a dry pattern Monday and Tuesday. Along with the dry conditions, unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected. Along with the summer-like feel, very strong southwest winds will be noted (gusts to 30-40 MPH).
A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Highs Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower to middle 80s and rival records across central IN. While that’s impressive enough, overnight lows of 65-70 are almost unheard of.
Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Cooler air will begin to move in by late week as a trough replaces the warm ridge. While we’re very confident on the much cooler feel, details in regards to the specifics around rain timing and amounts remain “muddy” at best. We’ll forecast best rain chances to arrive Thursday, but caution this may have to be fine tuned as we move forward. Highs that were in the 80s for early week will crash late week (upper 50s to lower 60s).
European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
As of now, next weekend looks dry and cool, but it was only yesterday that rain chances looked like they may continue into the early portions of the weekend. Stay tuned. As previously mentioned, temperatures will be much cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s for lows and lower to middle 60s for highs).
Complete 7-day will be posted later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/remarkable-summer-feel-through-mid-week-late-week-changes/
Oct 14
Warm & Windy This Weekend; Changeable Weather Next Week…
Central Indiana will enjoy a nice open to the weekend. High pressure will scoot off to the east and allow a warmer, but blustery return southwesterly flow. Though we’ll be warmer tomorrow, winds will increase and gust to 30-40 MPH late in the day. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 70s.
Sunday will feature an increase in cloudiness, but most shower activity should remain across northern and north-central parts of the state. Even in areas that receive rain Sunday, amounts will be light and insignificant. Here’s a look at what the radar may look like Sunday afternoon. It’ll be another unseasonably warm day as highs top out between 75°-80°, despite the increase in cloud cover.
Speaking of warmth, that will be the major story for early and middle parts of the work week. Highs around 80° and warm overnight lows in the 60s (where our average high should be) can be expected with dry, but windy, conditions in play. Extended summer, anyone?!
Changes are brewing for the latter portion of the week and that will require most of our attention over the weekend as far as sifting through the various details. While confidence is high in a transition to drastically cooler conditions, the evolution of specifics concerning rain chances results in a much lower level of confidence. As it stands now, we’ll increase rain chances for the late week period (late Wednesday into Thursday), but the duration of wet weather is up in the air. The GEFS (below) shows the wetter pattern returning.
Note the various ensemble solutions (above) of how the upper air pattern may look in the 8-10 day period. Solutions range from a drier and downright chilly look (European) to one that’s cooler, but still unsettled (GFS, GEM). Time is required to continue to fine tune things.
All of that said, as previously mentioned, we’re much more confident in the cooler look to close October. The GEFS sees that, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-changeable-weather-next-week/