Category: Forecast Models

Feb 03

Friday Morning Rambles; Looking Ahead…

1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).

gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_52.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region.  A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday.  Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_93.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question.  Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19

gfs_tprecip_indy_224.)  Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_22

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_245.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves.  Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts.  However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas.  In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears.  Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.

02.01.17Teleconnections

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Feb 01

VIDEO: Welcome To February…

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Jan 29

Sunday Morning Rambles…

1.) Our fast-moving NW flow continues today. Snow showers and localized heavier squalls will increase later this afternoon and evening as another upper level disturbance moves through. This won’t be a “uniform” event, but if driving please plan on rapidly reduced visibilities within the heavier squalls.


2.) Overall, the upcoming week looks chilly, but relatively dry. Fast-moving disturbances can be a pain for modeling and “last minute” corrections can take place, but consistency on the next storm system tracking north of the region Monday evening and Tuesday morning continues. We’ll note a gusty wind during this time frame (30-40 MPH gusts), but don’t foresee significant precipitation across central parts of the state.


3.) There’s the chance for snow showers midweek, but our attention will shift to the prospects of a “more meaningful” event next weekend. With this being a storm we’re watching for the day 7 period, confidence is low and specifics vary greatly. Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details. Just know from this distance, an accumulating event is possible.


4.) The last couple of weeks has featured an impressive January “thaw.” We note the blow torch regime of the past week across the central and east below.


See the shift back to winter, especially across the northern tier as we close January and flip the calendar into February.


The GEFS is bullish on the cold growing stronger as we progress through the first half of February.


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Jan 25

Wednesday Morning Weather Brief…

Your complete weekly discussion can be found in the post below from last night, but here’s a recap of our current 7-day:

Screen Shot 2017-01-24 at 9.49.46 PMShowers will expand in overall coverage as we progress through the late morning hours, but shouldn’t amount to much (0.10″ for a few neighborhoods).  We return to a drier theme this afternoon.

10a forecast radar

10a forecast radar

11a forecast radar

11a forecast radar

A mild and windy afternoon is ahead, including gusts close to 40 MPH and highs in the lower-middle 50s.

Colder air will return tonight and remain in place through the second half of the work week, including the upcoming weekend.  Temperatures will grow cold enough Thursday morning for scattered snow showers.

Low-mid 30s Thursday morning

Low-mid 30s Thursday morning

Upper level energy will keep scattered snow showers going late week and on into the weekend.  Models can struggle on timing and specifics of the pieces of energy and we’ll keep an eye on things into the weekend.  Potential is present for a more “robust” clipper Sunday that could yield better coverage of steady snow showers.

gfs_namer_106_500_vort_ht_sLonger term, the GFS ensemble continues to show the cold growing deeper and stronger for the region as we progress into early February.  Winter is far from over.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_5

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12

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Jan 24

Winter Returns…

January got off to a frigid start.  Remember this coast-to-coast cold, including sub-zero temperatures across central IN, during the first week of the month?

t0-1024x818After the past week to ten days, that frigid open to the month seems like forever ago!  The past 7-10 days has featured a significant January thaw, and temperatures now, MTD, are warmer than average across the Ohio Valley.  Warmest anomalies can be found across the southeast region.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017That said, the pattern is shifting back to winter for the last week of the month and while the duration, longer-term, can be argued, the next 2-3 weeks appear to offer an opportunity to play “catch up” in both the snow and cold departments.  Note the developing eastern troughiness.  This will bring colder air back into the east as we close January and open February.  The GFS ensembles, courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com, also develops an interesting “blocky” look towards the end of the period in Week 2.  Should this verify, it would lead to a better chance of the cold, active pattern locking in.

GEFS2wk12417
You’re corresponding temperature anomalies show the shift back to a colder than normal regime.

Days 2-6

Days 2-6

Days 4-8

Days 4-8

Days 6-10

Days 6-10

Days 12-16

Days 12-16

A fast northwest flow will also result in multiple “pieces” of energy rotating southeast and we’ll forecast a period of snow showers by mid and late week, continuing into the weekend.  There’s the chance of a stronger clipper system sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame that we’ll have to keep a close eye on.  We want to stress that global modeling will struggle with the specifics (timing and strength) of these clipper systems until within a couple days.

Longer term, while confidence is high on the evolution to a cold, wintry regime through the medium range, the longevity and sustainability of the cold is in question.  For instance, by Day 10 (as the GFS continues to drill cold into the region), the European ensembles are much less impressed and suggest the overall transient pattern we’ve dealt with for the balance of the winter continues:

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_11

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11Thinking here at IndyWx.com believes the European is likely rushing the warmer central look.  Time will tell…

**We do note the NEW European Weeklies lock a period of cold into the east from mid-February through early March, including a stormy (snowy) look.  Will Old Man Winter have the final say?

Updated 7-day later this evening!

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