Category: Forecast Models

Cool And Unsettled Is The Theme…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cool-and-unsettled-is-the-theme/

VIDEO: Tuesday Morning Update…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tuesday-morning-update/

Hot, Dry Pattern Continues For Now; MUCH Cooler Next Week…

The remainder of the work week and this weekend will remain dry and unseasonably warm.  Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s through the period. Strong ridging will keep us rain-free with plentiful sunshine.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_12A “backdoor” cold front will approach the region from the northeast late in the weekend, but won’t have enough “umph” to push the drier, cooler air our friends across the northeast and mid Atlantic will enjoy our way.

gfs_t2m_b_ma_14The evolution of the pattern from an unseasonably warm, dry regime to a much cooler, autumnal feel will, undoubtedly, feature showers and thunderstorms as we transition.  Modeling continues to waffle back and forth in regards to rainfall totals.  As of now, we’ll highlight Monday-Wednesday with increased rain chances.

gfs_tprecip_ky_28Thereafter, we turn MUCH cooler.  Data suggests Tuesday-Friday features temperatures much more like we’d expect for late September.  Lows in the 45-50 degree range, along with highs between 65-70 can be expected.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_24

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_6

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-dry-pattern-continues-for-now-much-cooler-next-week/

September: Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

Month-to-date, September has been a warm (+3.5 degrees) and wet (+1.17″) month across central Indiana.

month-tdevmonth-ppercThe warmth continues in the days ahead, but we’re going to run much drier, overall, as strong ridging remains the dominant factor through late week.

m7d7

cfs_tprecip_anom_conus_2016092000_21The past (90) days have featured hefty rains across the Mid West.

nws_precip_conus2_90Late season heat will grip most of the east over the upcoming (7) days. Note those population areas (nearly 90% of the lower 48) to experience at, or above, 80 degree heat between now and next Tuesday. Even areas into the Lakes and New England get in on the late summer feel.

ndfd_pop_over_80_8In the shorter term, an isolated shower is possible this evening, but most should remain dry as the air is very dry across the region.

hires_ref_indy_16The upper air pattern features strong ridging over the central and east over the upcoming several days. A cold front and associated trough will deliver cooler air by the early to middle part of next week.

1

2

3

4In between the warmth and pending cooler, more fall-like, air will be a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Modeling differs on precipitation amounts, but, as of now, heavy rains aren’t looking likely.

gefs_qpf_ens_ky_33As mentioned, early to middle parts of next week should feature temperatures much closer to where we should be this time of year, if not a few degrees below average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/september-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/

VIDEO: Weekend Weather And Late Month Talk…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-weekend-weather-and-late-month-talk/