Category Archives: Forecast Models

Looking Ahead To Christmas Week: Quiet; Warmer Than Average…

It’s been a whirlwind of a few days around these parts, but, thankfully for those with Christmas travel plans, that’s all about to change- at least from a weather stand point.

A cold front will sweep through the state Wednesday morning and we’ll get a glancing blow of arctic air midweek.

The brunt of the arctic air midweek will be aimed at the Northeast, but central Indiana will feel a glancing blow.

This, combined with a fresh snowpack, will result in many neighborhoods waking up Thursday morning to 10s, and a few single digit reports.

With us being on the “outer fringe” of this arctic airmass, we’ll quickly moderate back to “normal” mid-December cold late week and into the weekend. This will be a harbinger of things to come as Christmas week, itself, kicks off.

Note the expanding upper ridge from the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.

This will do a couple of things: shove the energy that could have led to a weekend East Coast storm south and result in an unusually quiet and mild time of things, locally for the Christmas holiday.

In fact, with the exception of a couple light snow showers in association with Wednesday cold frontal passage, we’re talking about a precipitation-free stretch through Christmas Day. Not only will the active pattern come to an abrupt halt, but temperatures will begin to moderate to well above average levels by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs around the 50° mark are likely.

The next chance of meaningful precipitation just come just after Christmas and likely take the form of rain.

No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Time For The Heavy Equipment: Localized Storm Totals Approach One Foot By The Time All Is Said And Done…

High resolution guidance started to show the snowier solutions earlier this evening and that trend has continued this evening. The consistency is great to see, but we also notice a couple of interesting elements “upstream” that will likely ultimately end up producing a memorable mid-December snow storm across central Indiana by the time all is said and done.

Before we talk specifics, here’s our updated snowfall forecast. Please note, this is expected total snowfall by daybreak Tuesday morning. We wouldn’t be shocked to hear of localized one foot amounts along the I-70 corridor.

Periods of heavy snow will come to an end during the overnight. We think by 3a to 4a, most of the snow from “round 1″ will be to our east and we’ll be left with clean up duties before a Monday morning rush that will likely still be heavily impacted. By the time the 1st round is finished, most of the I-70 corridor will be shoveling and plowing away 4″ to 6” of wet snow.

We’ll then get into the expected lull in the action through a good chunk of the daytime Monday. That said, curious eyes will be focused in on south-central MO mid-to-late morning as precipitation blossoms in response to a strengthening surface wave that will move northeast out of the Ark-la-tex and into the TN Valley tomorrow night.

Precipitation will expand in coverage and intensity yet again tomorrow morning to our southwest.

This will promote an expanding shield of moderate to heavy precipitation moving northeast and overspreading central Indiana by mid afternoon Monday. For us here across central Indiana, this will fall as snow.

Heavy snow will return to the I-70 corridor Monday afternoon.

If you don’t have to travel tomorrow, we’d recommend staying home and off the roads. While conditions will improve late morning into early afternoon, travel conditions will go downhill in significant fashion by 3p to 4p Monday across central Indiana- including the metro.

Periods of snow, heavy at times, will continue into the overnight before pushing off to the east before sunrise Tuesday. By that time, the heart of central Indiana will be cleaning up from a double digit and most memorable mid-December snow storm.

Periods of snow will continue into the overnight Monday.

We’ll be left with colder, but generally dry conditions Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below freezing through the day, but the majority of the region won’t be dealing with any additional snowfall after sunrise…

Gas up that snowblower! Next update will come early in the AM.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Snow, Short term update, Winter Storm