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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-freezing-rain-creates-slick-roads-friday-morning-active-pattern-to-open-up-2021/
Dec 30
VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Flip To Wet Snow This Evening And Freezing Rain NYD Morning…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-short-term-update-on-flip-to-wet-snow-this-evening-and-freezing-rain-nyd-morning/
Dec 29
Rain Returns Tomorrow; Latest Thoughts On New Years…
First and foremost, thank you so much for your understanding of the “off schedule” posts this week. I’m trying to keep our normal content flowing but have run into a couple of issues getting our daily video content to load, per usual. I’ll keep working on it and appreciate your patience as we update from the road!
At any rate, we really don’t have any significant changes to our ongoing forecast to wrap up the year. Clouds have increased through the day and have begun to lower and thicken this afternoon. These clouds will eventually yield rain before dawn into Indianapolis, itself.
Rain will continue through Wednesday afternoon across central Indiana- totaling 0.50” to 1” for most.
Precipitation may end as a brief period of wet snow after sunset Wednesday, but this shouldn’t be a big deal as the significant moisture will be pushing south as the cold air arrives.
New Year’s Eve, itself, should be dry and cold with temperatures holding around freezing.
A secondary area of low pressure will lift north into the western Ohio Valley New Year’s Day. This will allow widespread moisture to return predawn Friday. While there’s a chance of a brief mix of sleet and freezing rain at the onset, this shouldn’t be a big deal. A cold rain will fall throughout New Year’s Day (great day for a full slate of college football)!
An additional 1” to 1.5” is a good bet Friday as the secondary low moves through.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-returns-tomorrow-latest-thoughts-on-new-years/
Dec 27
A Word On Our New Year’s Eve Storm…
There will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the days ahead over the operational model changes that are sure to come with our New Year’s Eve storm. Knowing what’s to come with the operational guidance, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Below, I’ve included a couple of images of the 500mb pattern (upper level air pattern) from the GFS ensemble. The first image is dug out from the archives and features our Christmas Eve storm. The second image is the storm in front of us for New Year’s Eve.
There are several differences, but the most notable one to us is the strength and orientation of the blocking high to our northeast. Secondly, the sharp wave break (deep trough) is not part of our NYE storm like it was Christmas Eve. While there are other ingredients in the pot to stir, these are two significant differences that lead us to believe the upcoming NYE storm will be a big-hitter for the Mid West and portions of the western OHV, as opposed to the more progressive event east of here Christmas Eve. The pattern will allow a couple of features to slow down and strengthen (amount to be determined, but perhaps significantly so) to create a more “revved up,” western storm to close out the year.
From this distance, Indianapolis and central Indiana is at least in the game for wintry fun NYE, but there will be much fine tuning ahead.
More later today! Enjoy your Sunday!
Friendly reminder I am traveling this week to see family and loved ones. Posts will come daily, but our regular schedule will be off because of this. Merry Christmas!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-word-on-our-new-years-eve-storm/
Dec 26
VIDEO: Tricky System Dialed Up To Close Out The Year…
We’re tracking a complex storm system to close out the year. Unlike it’s predecessor, I think central and western portions of the OHV are at an increased risk of wintry…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tricky-system-dialed-up-to-close-out-the-year/