Moderating Trends Gets Underway Monday…The 2nd half of the weekend will feature more of what we’ve grown so used to as of late: overcast conditions. With the thick cloud deck in place, afternoon highs won’t budge much. As we flip the page to the new work week, a milder westerly and southwesterly air flow will turn gusty at times (especially by midweek), but this will also help boost temperatures to levels around 10° above normal. We should also see a little more of that vitamin D through midweek.
We’re still targeting a cold front to blow through our neck of the woods Friday. This, coupled with just enough upper level energy, will likely be enough to ignite a brief period of scattered snow shower action Friday PM. Colder air will settle into the area next weekend…
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Updated: 01.08.21 @ 8:12a Sunshine returns over the weekend. A shot of colder air (and perhaps snow) looms late next week…
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We’ve opened the month of January on a very warm note, compared to normal. Through the first (6) days of the month, temperatures are running 6.3° above average.
Well above average temperatures have dominated the northern tier into the eastern 1/3 of the country to open the month.
Looking ahead, the basis of the forecast over the next 3-4 weeks will be built on favorable teleconnection phases (for cold) with the AO, NAO, and PNA, while the predominantly positive EPO keeps any sort of sustained/ significant cold hard to come by. This is a pattern that can turn quite active (and we think it will), but one that still doesn’t appear as if it’ll grow overly cold- compared to normal.
We continue to eye the MJO propagation. The latest European models keep things in the null phase, but the American products seemingly want to get things more amplified. For now we’re not biting, but if things did sneak into Phases 3-4 by late month, warmer times would follow.
Week 1
JMA Week 1- Upper air pattern
JMA Week 1- Temperature anomalies
JMA Week 1- Precipitation anomalies
European Ensemble Week 1- Upper air pattern
European Ensemble Week 1- Temperature anomalies
European Ensemble Week 1- Precipitation anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 1- Upper air pattern
GFS Ensemble Week 1- Temperature anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 1- Precipitation anomalies
Week 2
JMA Week 2- Upper air pattern
JMA Week 2- Temperature anomalies
JMA Week 2- Precipitation anomalies
European Ensemble Week 2- Upper air pattern
European Ensemble Week 2- Temperature anomalies
European Ensemble Week 2- Precipitation anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 2- Upper air pattern
GFS Ensemble Week 2- Temperature anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 2- Precipitation anomalies
Through the first couple of weeks, modeling is in about as good of agreement as you could expect. After a period of quiet weather (immediate term), the pattern should turn much more active next week and the week thereafter, locally. While I don’t think cold overwhelms the pattern as much as the GFS ensemble is showing, I would go with more of a blend between that and the warmer JMA/ European.
Snow should also begin to get laid down across more of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. This is a stout look from the latest European and GFS ensemble means over the next 2 weeks (our daily videos and short-term products will handle this):
Thereafter, the weekly products take the pattern in two different directions and confidence is much lower late month and to open February. If the MJO remains a non-factor, colder solutions should carry the day. On the other hand, if the MJO does, indeed, roll into Phase 3/4, warmer times should follow in the Weeks 3-4 period. Stay tuned.
MJO Phases 3-4 in January
JMA Weeks 3-4- Upper air pattern (top); Temperature anomalies (bottom)
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