Category: Forecast Models

Harbinger Of Things To Come?

Updated 12.25.21 @ 11:27a

First and foremost, from our family to yours, we want to wish you a very merry Christmas and the warmest of holiday wishes during this season!

A line of rain and embedded thunder continues to plague portions of central Indiana late Christmas morning. Localized training of heavy downpours has led to this being an “overachiever” in spots across the region (closing in on 2” in a narrow strip from Frankfort over to Elwood, for example).

Radar at 11:32a

The trend should be a drier one through the afternoon as temperatures slowly begin to fall (how weird was it to walk outside on Christmas morning with temperatures in the lower and middle 60s?!).

Rain will push southeast of the area this afternoon.

With that said, the damp theme this Christmas morning can serve as a hint to what lies ahead as we put a bow of 2021 and open up the new year. A very Niña-like pattern will force the storm track into the Ohio Valley, leading to multiple storms of significance as we go through the upcoming week to 10 days.

Sunday night into Monday, Monday night and Tuesday, followed by next Saturday into Sunday all appear to provide a good soaking to central Indiana.

Storm #2 comes along Sunday night into Monday
Storm #3 arrives Monday night into Tuesday
Storm #4 rolls in New Year’s Day

Certainly by the time all is said and done, widespread hefty totals are likely. We’ll have to hone in on specific numbers as we get closer, but it’s safe to say amounts in local rain gauges may approach 3”+ by Jan. 2nd. The heaviest rain appears slated with the storm Tuesday and again next Saturday.


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VIDEO: Busy Short-Term Pattern; Drivers Behind The Regime Into Mid-January…

Updated 12.24.21 @ 7:35a

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VIDEO: Very Active Pattern To Close Out The Year…

Updated 12.23.21 @ 5:32a

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The Beat Goes On And On And On…

Updated 12.22.21 @ 7:45a

Average temperatures on the 22nd of December include a high of 38.6° and a low of 24.7°. We’ll be slightly under those levels today in what can be termed an “island” of cold in a “sea” of warmth. In fact, the month is running close to 7° above normal thus far.

Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 30s for most of central Indiana.
December 2021 has featured widespread above normal temperatures, centered across the s-central Plains into the TN and OH Valleys.

As we look towards the all-important Christmas forecast, quiet weather will carry us into Christmas Eve. That’s when we’ll tighten the pressure gradient and build in southwest gusts of 30 to 40 MPH.

Those southwesterly winds will transport a few scattered light showers into the region Christmas Eve evening into Christmas Day, but these won’t be a big deal. “Scattered” and “light” are the key words.

What will be a big deal are the temperatures. In fact, latest guidance is pointing towards a new record high on Christmas Day. Should we see any sunshine get into the mix, this will be easily achievable.

Modeled high temperatures on Christmas afternoon.
A look at Christmas Day records in Indianapolis, IN

Thereafter, the same general pattern remains intact, locally (- PNA ridge), but notice the cold bleeding into the West between Christmas and New Year’s. Does this eventually make progress east? We think so as we get into January…

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VIDEO: Sunshine Prevails For Now; Tracking Light Rain By Christmas Eve…

Updated 12.21.21 @ 8a

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