Nov 20
http:/ Tonight’s Video Highlights: We talk rain and amounts for Thursday and Friday. The coldest air of the season and coldest November day in some 13 years is ahead! A…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/20/wednesday-evening-video-update-rain-moving-in-arctic-blast-this-weekend/
Nov 19
http:/
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/19/video-update-on-the-remainder-of-this-week-and-at-some-thanksgiving-week-wintry-mischief/
Nov 16
We continue to monitor Sunday’s severe weather outbreak very closely. Simply put, the latest data suggests all of central Indiana will be under the gun for a potentially dangerous and life threatening severe weather event Sunday. The bullet points highlighted in our previous post haven’t changed, but we note tornado parameters may be even more impressive per latest data. Unfortunately, I’m afraid multiple tornado touchdowns will be reported across central Indiana tomorrow afternoon, followed by a more widespread damaging straight line wind event mid to late evening. Certainly please keep abreast of the latest watches and warnings that will come tomorrow.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight, but will remain below severe levels. The latest NAM simulated radar shows the developing showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Fast forward to Sunday evening and we note a line of severe thunderstorms moving through central Indiana, including a potential widespread damaging wind event.
Also, just to let you know, we’re also monitoring next weekend for another possible big weather event. This time we’re not talking severe weather, but possibly a major early season arctic attack… The latest European model isn’t holding back. Could a cold Thanksgiving week be shaping up? We’ll monitor closely.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/16/some-saturday-afternoon-thoughts/
Nov 10
Here’s a quick video update taking a look more closely at the forecast data for accumulating snow ahead Monday evening, as well as the impressive early season shot of cold…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/10/video-updated-on-snow-accumulation-the-cold/
Nov 07
Updated 11.07.13 @ 10:47p
Zionsville, IN Strong northwest winds are howling in the open country this evening and creating downright cold conditions out. Temperatures in the lower 30s are combining with a northwest wind gusting to 20 MPH to create wind chills in the lower to middle 20s tonight. Certainly bundle up if plans take you out tonight!
Friday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 50
A reinforcing shot of chilly air blew into the state Thursday night and is leading to another cold start to the day. Look for a sun-filled Friday to help boost temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s this afternoon.
Saturday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 56
Low pressure will race through the northern Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon. This will help drag a dry front through the region Saturday night, but the majority of Saturday we’ll enjoy milder, southwesterly winds. Saturday can be expected the pick of the 7-day outlook with dry skies and mild temperatures. We’ll note a gusty southwest breeze during the afternoon, especially in the open country.
Sunday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 50
We’ll enjoy another dry and sunny day Sunday though it’ll be several degrees cooler when compared to the first half of the weekend. The reason? A northerly flow behind the dry frontal boundary that’ll be drug through central Indiana Saturday evening.
Monday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55
While dry conditions will be in place Monday, we’ll have our eyes pointed north bound as an early season arctic air mass gets ready to descend upon the Ohio Valley and Mid West…
Tuesday: AM light snow; PM scattered snow showers (dusting to 1″); 27/ 35
A strong cold front will plunge south and move through the Hoosier state Tuesday. Behind the front, a huge arctic high will sink south out of Canada and help unseasonably cold air to settle over the area for mid week. As the front moves through Tuesday morning, light rain will quickly mix with and change to light snow. Some light accumulations of snow can be expected. Then, as we move into the afternoon, “system” generated snow will diminish and give way to scattered afternoon snow showers. There is a chance portions of the state, particularly the northern snow belt, deals with some lake effect snow bands Tuesday. Just how far south these snow bands make it will have to be fine tuned as we draw closer. Stay tuned.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny; 21/ 37
We’ll keep a close eye on things, but latest data tonight suggests that strong area of high pressure overwhelms the region and results in unseasonably cold, but dry weather for the middle of next week.
Thursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 48
Moderating temperatures will ensue Thursday as we get back into a southwesterly flow of air. That said, temperatures will remain below average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/07/friday-forecast-cold-start-to-the-day/
Nov 05
While the midday model data continues to flip flop on the temperature outcome next week, one thing seems rather likely and that’s the idea we remain in a pattern that will produce significant rainfall over the next 10 days.
Let’s take a look at the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM (Canadian) for precipitation amounts over the next 7-10 days.
Model data paints a wet picture of widespread 1.5″-2″+ type rainfall totals over the upcoming 7-10 day period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/05/wet-pattern-continues/
Nov 05
I wanted to quickly post on two totally different scenarios for next week. Two of the more powerful forecast models we use to look into the mid-long range are in separate worlds when it comes to the weather pattern the middle to latter part of next week.
Here’s a look at the GFS upper air pattern:
Note the eastern ridging which would lead to well above normal temperatures during the middle to latter part of next week (by as much as 10 degrees above average), along with dry conditions.
HOWEVER, here’s a look at the European’s forecast upper air pattern late next week:
This would certainly be quite the significant storm for the Northeast, but the implications here are vastly different from that which the GFS shows above. Instead of warmth and dry conditions, we’d deal with highs in the middle 30s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s. Additionally, we’d also “enjoy” (okay, some folks would “enjoy”) snow showers and snow squalls the middle to latter portion of next week, as noted per the European below, including a lake Michigan connection.
Needless to say, we have a lot to sort out in the coming days. We’ll be here to do just that. Make it a great Tuesday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/05/two-totally-different-solutions-for-next-week/
Nov 04
This is the first time since 2002 that I haven’t produced a winter outlook. Part of the reason behind this is due to the fact that our recent move back from Cleveland, OH to Indianapolis has taken priority. Moving is always a much bigger chore than you expect originally. That said, the upcoming winter of 2013-2014 presents quite the challenge when trying to determine what particular player takes control for the “long haul.” I can’t remember a time when so many variables were at play, presenting quite the headache in trying to determine which one will take the lead. Ultimately, confidence is lower than normal for the winter forecast. That said, “confidence” in something 3-4 months out is never considered high. 🙂
Here are just a few items I’m looking at for the upcoming winter:
1. Data is pointing towards a southeast ridge in play for the better part of the upcoming winter.
The strength and precise position of the ridge will go a long way in aiding our weather here in central Indiana. Southeast ridging isn’t always a bad thing in the winter if you’re a cold and snow fan as storms can’t “escape” harmlessly to our south or east. That said, should we deal with a strong southeast ridge then we’re looking at a warmer, rainier time of things here as opposed to cold and snowy…
2. Modeling suggesting Nino Region 3.4 warms slightly as we progress through the winter months.
The implications here are interesting when we drill down to the “home front.” The following data from similar conditions during December-February in Nino Region 3.4 correlate to a few years that will go down in Hoosier snow lovers dreams…
3. NAO showing signs of going negative when it matters most?
Labeled as the new “NAO Model everyone is looking for” may, perhaps, be just that. This formula has already proven to be incredibly accurate in the past. This was developed by fellow midwestern, Al Marinaro (you can follow him on Twitter at @wxmidwest). In the past I’ve been one to say it’s incredibly difficult to forecast the NAO beyond 2-3 weeks, but we look at water temperatures this time of year to try and get an idea of what may happen in the coming winter months ahead. If Mr. Marinaro is on to something (and it appears that he is) that longstanding idea will all change.
Additionally, to the delight of many cold and snow lovers out there, Mr. Marinaro’s formula suggests we’re heading for a predominantly negative NAO this winter.
4. The normally “highly variable” CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) monthly run has remained consistent as of late in thinking the east is warmer than normal for meteorological winter.
It’s amazing how often this model is shown when forecasting cold, but seemingly forgotten when it’s forecasting warmer than normal conditions.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/04/thoughts-on-winter/
Nov 03
Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p
Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect! While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58
The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours. It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures. Enjoy!
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61
We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60
A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark). While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.
Thursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″); 38/ 55 (falling)
The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.
Friday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48
A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55
Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend. We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday. Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/03/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/
Oct 21
Right on cue, the well advertised cold pattern is settling in and looks to remain entrenched over the region to close October and open November. Note the eastern trough and…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/21/cold-close-to-october-watching-halloween-closely/