Category: Forecast Models

Sunday Morning Rambles: Talking About Icing Monday Evening, Wet Week Ahead, And Potential Of A Wintry Return…

Updated 01.21.24 @ 7:51a

This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.

While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.

The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.

Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.

The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.

Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).

Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.

Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/21/sunday-morning-rambles-talking-about-icing-monday-evening-wet-week-ahead-and-potential-of-a-wintry-return/

VIDEO: Bitter Weekend Gives Way To A Significant Thaw; Wet Pattern Develops…

Updated 01.20.24 @ 11:50a Arctic high pressure will build overhead this weekend and while we still have a couple days of very cold weather to contend with it won’t be…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/20/video-bitter-weekend-gives-way-to-a-significant-thaw-wet-pattern-develops/

VIDEO: Gusty Snow Showers, Squalls Redevelop; Flipping The Switch To A Wetter, But Milder Week Ahead…

Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:58a As the “system” snow winds down, we’ll notice a renewed area of snow showers developing through the late morning and afternoon as another round of arctic…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/video-gusty-snow-showers-squalls-redevelop-flipping-the-switch-to-a-wetter-but-milder-week-ahead/

Long Range Update: Pattern Evolution Through The Remainder Of Winter; Open To Meteorological Spring…

Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:35a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/long-range-update-pattern-evolution-through-the-remainder-of-winter-open-to-meteorological-spring/

VIDEO: Snowy, Windy, And Turning Colder Yet Again; Big Warmup On Deck Next Week, But Comes With Unsettled Weather…

Updated 01.18.24 @ 7:22a We continue to eye an accumulating snow event to close out the work week and this will precede arctic reinforcements that once again will take us…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/18/video-snowy-windy-and-turning-colder-yet-again-big-warmup-on-deck-next-week-but-comes-with-unsettled-weather/

Evening Update: Snow/ Wind Trends, Icy Setup Early Next Week, And More On The Pattern Flip Ahead…

Updated 01.17.24 @ 5:22p

While we’ll still contend with a couple of rounds of accumulating snow to close out the work week, latest model guidance is trending drier with both systems- at least across most of central Indiana. The Thursday morning snow band will lead to a couple inches of powder across north-central and northern IN tomorrow morning, but the majority of this band should fall apart before reaching Indianapolis. We’ll continue to keep close eyes on overnight trends, but travel impacts aren’t likely until once north of Kokomo as of now tomorrow morning.

The next round of snow will arrive Thursday night- now likely well after the evening rush hour. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event (2″-3″ north of Indianapolis, including northern ‘burbs and 1″ to 2″ from Indy and points south), the cold surface will allow this light snow event to create slick road conditions overnight and into our Friday. Snow removal clients, we still recommend planning to activate salting and plowing overnight and through Friday.

We also continue to closely monitor a localized, but heavier snow band that will likely oscillate through a portion of central Indiana through the afternoon Friday. Localized heavier snow accumulations and gusty winds will be associated within this snow band and we’ll have to treat this more as a “nowcast” situation once that LES band gets organized.

Even outside of this LES band, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially on west-east roadways and in the open country. Drifting and blowing snow will continue through Saturday in these areas.

After another bitterly cold weekend, a significant warming trend will get underway next week. That’s not before we likely have to deal with a round of freezing rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Many times, forecast guidance can be too aggressive in dislodging true arctic air and I’m afraid that will be the case in this instance. Today’s trends have likely started to pick up on this icy threat to open the work week and while we likely aren’t talking about a true ice storm, travel impacts should be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning before we transition to a plain ole rain event.

A freezing rain event is becoming increasingly likely Mon evening into Tuesday.

Thereafter it’s “game, set, match” for much milder, but wet times through the rest of the week and on into next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/17/evening-update-snow-wind-trends-icy-setup-early-next-week-and-more-on-the-pattern-flip-ahead/

VIDEO: Snowy Close To The Week; Final Arctic Hammer Drops This Weekend Before Significant Pattern Change…

Updated 01.17.24 @ 6:58a A band of snow will drop south into north-central IN Thursday morning, likely making it as far south as the Indianapolis-area proper before falling apart. This…

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Snow Event And Arctic Reinforcements To Close The Week; Active Storm Track Ahead…

Updated 01.16.24 @ 12:34p

Today and most, if not all, of Wednesday will be plain ole cold but at least precipitation free. We’ll have to watch short term guidance closely for a band of snow that will develop across northern Indiana overnight and into Thursday morning. We think this snow band will sink south into at least north-central Indiana after sunrise Thursday before falling apart likely around Indianapolis. A quick 1”-2” of snow is likely across northern and north-central Indiana Thursday morning.

Our next opportunity of snow (area wide) will move in Thursday night and Friday morning. This will be a much higher ratio type snow (think 20:1) than typical with the cold, arctic airmass in place. We should easily be able to accumulate 2”-4” with this event, with the potential of a couple 4”+ reports. (Snow removal clients, plowing and salting will be activated by Thursday evening).

A fresh round of bitter, arctic air flows in as we kick off the weekend. With a fresh snowpack, another round of subzero lows should be expected. Look for highs in the 10s Saturday and 20s Sunday. Wind chill values will dip to around -20° as we kick off the weekend.

Though a moderating trend will kick in in full force next week, we’ll have to watch for the potential of a freezing rain and/ or sleet event Monday night into Tuesday (arctic air is always slower to erode than usually modeled) and a true shift to a wet pattern for the middle and latter part of next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/16/snow-event-and-arctic-reinforcements-to-close-the-week-active-storm-track-ahead/

Bitter Week Ahead: Talking Snow Chances And Arctic Reinforcements For The Weekend…

Updated 01.15.24 @ 6:29a

Officially, IND dipped to 4° below zero Sunday morning with a high of only 12°. We’re even colder this morning across the area, including double digit below zero readings north and 6° to 9° below zero for most central IN neighborhoods.

It’s another frigid start to the morning across central Indiana.
Monday morning wind chill values

Another round of light snow will scoot through central IN tonight, accumulating anywhere from 0.50” to just under an inch.

The next chances of snow come late week, in advance of arctic reinforcements for the weekend (we think we go back below zero over the weekend). We’re tracking Wednesday night into Thursday morning and Thursday night into early Friday for the next rounds of snow- both of which should be light events but will add up to a couple if not several inches when all is said and done (2”-4” for most is a reasonable call from this distance).

Wednesday night – Thursday morning
Thursday night – Friday

That fresh snowpack will lay the ground for a renewed batch of arctic air for the weekend, including lows back to below zero and highs in the 10s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/15/bitter-week-ahead-talking-snow-chances-and-arctic-reinforcements-for-the-weekend/

Sunday Morning Rambles From The Deep Freeze…

Updated 01.14.24 @ 7:13a

Hoosiers are waking up to subzero temperatures this morning. We note double digit below zero readings now penetrating into northwest parts of the state. Wind chill values are dangerously cold.

Highs today will barely sneak into the single digits as the true arctic air mass continues to have a tight grip on the region.

Some light snow may scoot through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning. This won’t amount to much even if it does materialize. (Dusting to half inch of snow if that).

The next opportunity for potentially more meaningful snow arrives late week – in the Thursday PM through Friday timeframe, preceding another intrusion of bitter arctic air to open next weekend.

For folks longing for milder times, hang in there. A pattern change still seems afoot come late month. This January thaw may even take highs back into the 40s and 50s ahead of a reloading of cold times as we flip the page to February.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/14/sunday-morning-rambles-from-the-deep-freeze/

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