Apr 24
After another frost and freeze across central Indiana this morning, attention begins to shift to wet times ahead Saturday. Most of today will be rain-free and feature sunshine, but this…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/24/wet-saturday-coming/
Apr 23
Temperatures dipped to between 30°-32° for many central IN neighborhoods this morning. After sunshine and an unseasonably cool afternoon, temperatures will fall to similar levels tonight and Friday morning. As…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/23/another-frosty-night-coming/
Apr 20
Highlights:
Surface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN. Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing. It’s a gusty day and that will continue. Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers. Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period. The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday. Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track. Stay tuned.
Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.
The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend. The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.
Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends. After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/20/heading-the-wrong-direction/
Apr 19
Highlights:
Low pressure over IN this evening will move north into the Great Lakes Monday and strengthen along the way. A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and Monday morning and shut off the heavier rainfall. Before that we have several hours of additional moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight. Tomorrow will be a breezy and MUCH cooler day and help set the tone for the week as a whole. We’ll watch for a weak disturbance to provide a shower chance mid week and keep a close eye on the weekend for the chances of rain. Model data is in disagreement on Saturday as of now.
Tonight’s radar, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, shows another slug of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunder moving in from the south. Heavy downpours will make for excellent sleeping weather tonight.
Overall rain coverage will decrease significantly as we progress through Monday, but we can’t totally rule out the chance of afternoon showers redeveloping in “pop-corn” fashion as just enough sunshine may work on what will be a very unseasonably cool air mass moving in.
Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows this Monday afternoon.
Unseasonably chilly air will be the rule this week- including 50s for highs most every day. The only exception may be highs around 60 Tuesday and highs that may not make it out of the 40s Wednesday. Frost and freeze conditions will be a concern on multiple nights/ mornings this week.
After a warm month (to date) [image 1], Mother Nature will do what she does best- attempt to balance things out the upcoming 7-10 days [image 2].
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/19/unseasonably-cool-stretch/
Apr 18
Highlights:
This morning’s water vapor image, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows the big swirl over the CO Rockies. This will continue to move slowly east over the next couple of days. Surface low pressure will organize over the lower MS Valley tonight and move north into Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. After a beautiful Saturday, clouds will increase tonight and widespread rain and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday morning. With a deep Gulf connection, expect heavy rainfall, as well. Much cooler air will then take over next week- jackets will be needed!
Before the rain and storms move in Sunday, be sure to enjoy the weather today- lots of sunshine and lower 80s!
Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows the wet and stormy Sunday ahead. Rain will push north through early and mid morning Sunday, continuing into the evening.
An average of 1″ to 1.5″ of rain is likely, with isolated heavier totals Sunday. The model breakdown is below.
The Canadian shows the least amount of rain, with 0.50″ – 0.75″ through central IN.
The GFS paints 1.2″ of rain through central IN, with a “ribbon” of enhanced rainfall along the IN/ IL state line.
The high resolution NAM places emphasis on central and eastern portions of the state, including 1.5″ to 2″ amounts.
The RGEM shows a similar story to the high resolution NAM (above) with 1.5″ to 2″ through central IN.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/18/almost-summer-like-today-before-sunday-storms/
Apr 17
Highlights:
The infrared satellite this morning, courtesy of Weathertap.com, is showing a significant storm system dumping major snows along the CO Front Range. Additionally, later today, this storm system will help spawn a severe weather outbreak across eastern CO, NE, and KS.
Locally, we have no weather worries after we rid ourselves of the dense fog currently in place across central Indiana. Once the fog burns off it’s nothing but sunshine and warmth and an absolute ideal close to the work week and open to the weekend. Highs today (image 1) will reach the lower to middle 70s and we forecast highs Saturday in the upper 70s (image 2), both courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
Things will begin to transition to stormy times for the second half of the weekend as a “piece” of that big Rocky Mountain storm system breaks away and helps develop a new surface low over the MS River Valley. This low pressure system will ride into the Ohio Valley and provide widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
Here’s a look at the 2p forecast radar Sunday, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined far southern portions of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Sunday.
As we turn our attention to next week, unseasonably cool air will engulf a large portion of the east. Reinforcing chilly air will push in later next week, after the first surge of chill arrives Monday night/ Tuesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/17/warm-now-but-cooler-times-loom/
Apr 14
April so far has run much warmer than normal across our region, and a large part of the country. However, a rather significant shift in the pattern will take…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/14/cooler-times-ahead/
Apr 13
A thin line of showers and thunderstorms will push through central Indiana around lunchtime through the early afternoon hours. The HRRR (top) is much less aggressive than the high resolution…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/13/line-of-showers-and-t-storms-early-this-afternoon/
Apr 09
After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range. Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.
Sure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).
Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.
The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.
This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period. This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.
In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/09/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/
Apr 03
1.) First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers go out to our neighbors to our south this morning as a serious flood situation is underway.
Unfortunately, more rain is ahead today and will include our region across central Indiana. Waves of rain and embedded thunder will continue into the evening.
2.) A much colder air mass will arrive this afternoon and evening along with a gusty northwest wind. Wind chills will fall into the 20s by evening. Eventually we’ll bottom out in the upper 20s Saturday morning.
3.) Easter weekend will feature beautiful weather across the area, thanks to high pressure. Though it’ll be cold Saturday morning, lots of sunshine will warm us quickly.
4.) Wet and stormy times return next week, including multiple days of heavy rain potential and possibly strong to severe thunderstorms. In short, a very active week is on deck.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/03/friday-morning-thoughts-2/