May 16
1.) The first half of May has been warmer and drier than average, locally. 2.) Sunday is shaping up to be a very busy severe weather day in…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/16/saturday-morning-rambles-5/
May 10
First and foremost, here’s wishing a very happy Mother’s Day to all of the moms out there! May has gotten off to a much warmer and drier than normal start. …
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/10/sunday-morning-thoughts/
May 08
May has gotten off to a warm (dare I say hot?) start. The past couple days have felt more like July than May with mid to upper 80s commonplace.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/08/friday-morning-rambles/
May 06
Highlights:
As we get set to put a wrap on another busy work week, near record warmth is the big weather story. Those unseasonably warm conditions we’ve dealt with over the past few days will continue into the weekend, but we’ll also add rain and storm chances. Coverage of thunderstorms will be categorized as “isolated” Friday, “scattered” Saturday and Sunday, and “widespread” Monday. As moisture continues to surge into the region, locally heavy downpours can be expected, and a downright muggy feel. A severe storm is certainly possible, but the more widespread severe outbreak will remain to our west across the central Plains region. Much cooler air will pour into the region behind a Monday night frontal passage.
As we type this (around 10p Wednesday evening), temperatures are still in the middle 70s and a whopping 15-20 degrees above average this hour across the area.
Think it’s humid now? Just wait until the weekend. A strong southwest flow will pull moisture-rich air northward, courtesy of a Gulf of Mexico connection. Dew points will approach 70 degrees across many southern and central IN communities and help fuel locally heavy rainfall with any storm that develops Friday night through Monday.
A MUCH cooler air mass will filter into the region behind the cold frontal passage Monday night/ early Tuesday. After a week of summer-like heat, upper 50s for highs will feel downright chilly.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/06/summer-like-turns-much-cooler-next-week-storms-in-between/
May 04
It’s been a very busy day and I apologize for the late post. Storms this evening reached severe limits north of the city. In particular, Boone County was hard hit,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/04/monday-evening-catch-up/
May 03
Highlights:
Forecast radar (above), courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows showers and thunderstorms pressing into the state early Monday morning. This is all part of a frontal boundary that will slip into northern IN Monday before stalling through the mid week stretch. Most widespread coverage of showers and storms will be confined to northern portions of the state, but we’ll also include a mention of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for central IN Monday. Traveling north this week? Plan on better rain chances as compared to that we’ll see.
The majority of the upcoming work week will feature dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. A prolonged southerly and southwesterly air flow will provide an increasingly muggy feel to the air this week.
Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will roll in over the weekend thanks to an approaching storm system.
The majority of our mid to long range forecast data suggests the warm pattern we’ve enjoyed to kick off May will continue deep into the month. Ensemble guidance (above) shows a snap shot of temperature anomalies through the 19th of May. As you can see, temperatures will be significantly above normal through the first ten days, or so, of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/03/warm-temperatures-increasing-humidity/
Apr 29
Highlights:
A vigorous upper level low will pivot through the Ohio Valley Thursday. This will provide the threat of a shower really at any point through the day. Unseasonably cool air and a gusty wind will also be in place. This will be a brief set back from what, otherwise, is a full-blown burst into spring/ early summer type weather over the weekend into next week.
We’ll keep a very close eye on the placement of a ridge to our southeast early next week as this will mean the difference between a mostly dry and warmer pattern and one that could, potentially, be periodically stormy. As things stand now, models are trending drier, with the so-called “ring of fire” pattern placed just north of central Indiana. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Simulated radar (above) shows scattered showers dotting the region Thursday, thanks to a potent upper low moving through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably chilly air (forecast highs in the mid/ upper 50s shown below) and gusty winds will also accompany this system. Rainfall amounts will be light for most and generally under one tenth of an inch.
Our weather early next week will largely depend on the strength and placement of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast region. Models today have trended drier for our immediate region and, as such, we’ll follow suit with our forecast above. That said, we note models can struggle with the precise details of these patterns in the mid range and things could trend back towards the direction of stormier times. Stay tuned.
Regardless of storm chances next week, temperatures will be drastically warmer than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple weeks. Ensembles (below) show the warmer than average pattern engulfing the region and a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/29/cool-and-showery-thursday-full-blown-spring-warmth-ahead/
Apr 28
Highlights:
Wednesday will get off to a chilly start, but we’ll be several degrees warmer than recent mornings. We should see enough sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower to middle 60s before clouds increase and thicken by evening. This is in association with an upper level low that will track over the region Thursday. This UL will serve up scattered showers Thursday (0.10″ – 0.25″ rain potential in spots) and it’ll be another unseasonably cool day.
Brighter days are ahead as we progress into the weekend with increasing sunshine Friday and continuing Saturday.
Moisture will increase Sunday into Monday as our wind flow backs around to the southwest. This will pull increasing moisture into the Ohio Valley and we’ll watch for a couple of disturbances to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms. The big story next week will be a much warmer pattern.
After a dry Wednesday, forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows showers building into central IN Wednesday night and Thursday morning. It won’t rain the entire day Thursday, but scattered showers will dot the landscape at times. As mentioned above, rainfall totals will be light. It’ll be a cool day (mid to upper 50s for highs as shown below) with showers, clouds, and a gusty north wind in play.
Our air flow will back to the southwest and help transport a more humid brand of air into the region early next week. This warmer, moist air mass will likely be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/28/thursday-bump-in-the-road-en-route-to-a-warmer-regime/
Apr 27
Highlights:
After a cool open to the work week, the next couple of days will continue a similar theme. We’ll enjoy more sunshine Tuesday when compared to Monday afternoon and temperatures should be a degree or two warmer.
Attention will shift to a potent upper level area of low pressure dropping across the region in the mid week time period. This will do two things of note- provide reinforcing cool air and help create a scattered shower chance in the Wednesday-Thursday time period. (Scattered 0.10″ to 0.25″ rainfall amounts).
Weather conditions will begin to relax as we put a wrap on the work week. Expect increasing sunshine and a much warmer pattern.
Warmth and humidity will continue to build early next week and help add fuel to storm potential.
It’s a rather anomalous look to the 500mb (upper air pattern) charts for mid week, courtesy of Weatherbell.com. A potent upper level low will dive southeast across the region and help spawn a shower chance, along with provide a much cooler feel of things Wednesday night into Thursday. Surface low pressure will develop along the SE coast (in response to the UL energy diving southeast) that will provide a windy/ rainy end to the week across coastal regions down east.
Warmer days are ahead, and more humid days, as well. Our wind flow will back to the southwest late in the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will respond, but so will humidity levels. Throw in a little energy and you have the makings for stormy times to open up next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/27/warmer-days-coming-but-cool-continues-in-the-short-term/
Apr 26
As our attention shifts to May, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the upcoming month. Due to licensing issues, we’re not allowed to share all of the forecast models that we look at here with you, but did want to give you an idea of some of the data we’re looking at.
The month is likely to open up with an anomalous pattern in place, including one that will support a rather significant coastal storm along the SE coast. That said, as we progress a bit deeper into the month, guidance suggests a much warmer pattern awaits for those locally across the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Using a combination of model guidance, here’s an idea of what we’re projecting the upper air pattern to look like as we open the month and progress into the middle of the month.
As a whole, the majority of forecast data, including analogs of weak El Nino events of the past would imply a warmer than normal May is on the way. Note the warmer anomalies across the mid South and Ohio Valley region.
The CFSv2 also is in agreement with the warm idea for May. Areas where cooler air will be more likely? The SW and northern tier regions.
Precipitation for April has been running above normal across our region and across the southeast, as a whole. This is a good sign if you don’t like exceptionally hot and dry summers. Precipitation this time of year can set the tone for both as we move into the summer months ahead.
For the month of May, we anticipate near normal precipitation (right around 5″), but stress that precipitation isn’t always uniform this time of year as thunderstorms can dump locally heavier totals.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/26/warm-may-on-the-way/