Jun 14
Today is the beginning of several active days around these parts. Over the course of the next few days severe weather and heavy rainfall will keep us on our toes…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/14/busy-times-in-the-forecast-office/
Jun 12
The Storm Prediction Center highlights the region for a risk of severe weather both today and Sunday. Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook As for timing, we expect…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/12/strong-to-severe-storm-potential-active-pattern/
Jun 09
From time to time we like to post some of our AG weather reports here as opposed to our weekly updates via e-mail. (BTW, if you’re interested in more information around this feature, please e-mail bill@indywx.com).
Rains the past couple of days have been beneficial for many areas that were dry in May. (Here’s a hint, there’s more where that came from).
Unfortunately, some of that heavy rain came with hail damage- particularly across northern IN Monday afternoon.
Abnormally dry conditions have continued to shrink over the region over the past couple weeks. May and early June is a crucial time in setting the tone for the summer/ early fall months ahead. This, of course, is fantastic news.
As we progress ahead into the second half of the week, additional severe threats will present themselves. Similar to Monday, hail and damaging winds are of greatest concerns in our particular Ag-weather viewing area (#IAwx, #INwx, #ILwx, #OHwx).
Day 2- Wednesday
Day 3- Thursday
As we move forward, a very warm to hot and humid pattern will settle in o/ the course of the next 7-14 days (and beyond). In looking at the latest European Weeklies (can’t post here due to licensing issues) the warmer than normal pattern and wetter than normal regime is likely to continue through the rest of the month. It’s not so much the high temperatures in terms of absolutes, but the combination of wet ground (humid and sultry) and warmer overnight lows that will really help power the warmer than normal period in the coming couple weeks.
In the shorter term, heat will really expand across the region mid week, including many of the first 90 degree readings of the season for most folks. The European shows the ridge flexing it’s muscle yet again into early next week.
A very humid time of things will continue, due to the recent wet times and more rain ahead. Aside from the storm threat(s) mid week, Friday into Saturday will also prove to offer a smattering of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in and stalls south before returning north Sunday.
Upcoming 10-day rainfall numbers are respectable, including 2″-3″ totals for many, with locally heavier amounts a good bet where storms train.
Note the wet pattern shown deeper into June off the CFSv2:
The JAMSTEC shows the wet pattern into the heart of the summer (June, July, August) and would argue against any idea of major long-lasting heat for the heart of the summer.
BTW- for you winter lovers out there, here’s a little something to entertain you. The JAMSTEC is onboard for another “fun” winter ahead. Factor in those warm NPAC anomalies and a weakening El Nino into the winter and the stage very well may be set for wintry fun and games… Long way to go here, however… 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/ag-weather-report-6915/
Jun 07
An active and noisy night is on tap, friends, as multiple storm clusters move through central Indiana. Initially, the concern is hoisted for severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. As the night progresses, the growing concern will be flash flooding as storms train over the same area, potentially leading to 3″+ rains in localized areas.
We’re currently eyeing convection firing to our northwest and these storms will push southeast this evening. They will move into a very warm, humid, and unstable environment and will likely strengthen as they ride into north-central IN later this evening. Here’s a snap shot of the radar valid at 8p:
Note as we progress into the overnight, additional storms are likely and flooding concerns are on the rise due to this. Radar valid at 3a:
Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be common tonight across central IN, but some localized reports of 3″-4″ can’t be ruled out where storms train. Here’s a look at potential rainfall numbers through 5a:
We note PWATs (precipitable water values) pushing close to 2″ overnight and this increases our confidence on the heavy rainfall potential, as well:
Stay weather-aware tonight, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/07/very-active-night-ahead/
May 29
A quick step out of the door this morning and you’ll note the significant uptick in humidity overnight. A very warm, humid day is on tap with an isolated or…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/29/friday-morning-already-sticky-out-there/
May 25
Highlights:
Forecast radar above (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows our next weather concern and that has to do with an upper air disturbance moving northeast tonight into Tuesday. This will likely ignite scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Remain weather-aware tomorrow for the possibility of these severe storms. Large hail is the big concern. Should we see morning sunshine of significance then that would “up the ante” for afternoon severe potential. We remain in a rather unsettled, warm, and humid pattern this week, but there will be plenty of dry time. Coverage of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday will be diminished from what we can expect tomorrow and Wednesday. A cold front will arrive over the weekend, helping to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage.
A blend of short and mid range computer guidance prints out an average of 1.5″-2″ of rain over the upcoming ten days. This is needed after what’s been several weeks in a row of a lack of widespread rains.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/25/strong-to-severe-storms-possible-tuesday-pm/
May 21
Highlights:
An unseasonably chilly air mass continues to engulf much of the region (shown above). As we flip the page and head into the long holiday weekend, we’ll note moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels once to race day. An isolated or widely scattered storm is possible Sunday, but rainfall coverage continues to diminish with each passing computer model run. Even if we do see a passing storm Sunday, it’ll likely arrive later in the evening. A more humid regime will build in here next week and we’ll keep mention of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening. We’ll highlight Tuesday and Wednesday as days with potentially the most widespread coverage of showers and storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/21/great-weekend-weather-ahead/
May 21
Just a quick update here this morning before we post our updated 7-day later this evening. Forecast models are trending drier for the weekend, which is sure to put big…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/21/a-word-on-the-weekend/
May 19
Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/19/chilly-now-continuing-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-sunday/
May 17
With the combination of the race and Memorial Day weekend, a busy week is ahead. Here are a few weather headlines that have our attention as we open the week:…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/17/thoughts-on-the-big-week-ahead/