Category: Forecast Models

A very busy, and WINTRY, pattern awaits next week. There are more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important specifics, but modeling is leaning more towards the northern stream dominating the pattern.  While this takes the chances of one big, phased storm out of the equation, challenges abound, and ultimately the sensible weather may be very similar once everything is said and done, locally.

The upcoming weekend will be tranquil and mild.  Continue Super Bowl prep and enjoy it.

Heading into Monday, an arctic cold front will move through the Ohio Valley and may be accompanied by a band of precipitation- likely rain to snow.

As we move into Monday night and Tuesday, forecast models are liking the idea of low pressure developing over the Great Lakes region and suggest this low slowly moves south into the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.  At the same time, individual “spokes” of energy, or upper air disturbances, will move through the area in the fast, cold northwest flow.

500mb pattern Monday night. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

GFS ensembles. Source: Weatherbell.com

From a temperature perspective, what at one time (now) was a warm pattern, suddenly turns much colder than normal (early next week).

Stay tuned as we move forward and continue to fine tune the details.  As of now, we’re confident on an accumulating snow event early-mid next week, but have a long way to go concerning details on timing, duration, etc.

Video update later this evening.  Make it a great Wednesday!