Category: Forecast Models

Hang In There Friends…

An upper level low is still impacting our weather this morning, but this feature isn’t wasting any time scooting southeast. In fact, by this afternoon, we should be looking at increasingly sunny skies and temperatures that will slowly recover from the chilly, raw readings of this morning.

With the increasing sunshine, temperatures will recover into the lower 60s today (still below average, but an improvement).


High pressure will build into the region to wrap up the work week and provide a delightful close to what’s been a rather gloomy week. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures into the lower 70s are on tap.

That said, this is still an active weather pattern that will require close attention in the week ahead.

The anamalous trough will “relax” and give way to transient ridging, but there are indications of another trough setting up Days 8-10. Giving the pattern, it’s likely that the aforementioned trough will be deeper (more significant) than what model data currently portrays (image 3).


It’s a rather wet pattern, as well. 7-day rain numbers of 1″-1.5″ seems reasonable with locally heavier totals. 


Our next chance of rain comes Saturday in the form of scattered, mostly PM variety, storms.

More later! Make it a great Thursday! 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/05/hang-in-there-friends/

Damp, Chilly Tuesday…

Heavy drizzle and patchy light rain are falling across central IN this morning along with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  It’s a raw morning.  As we move forward, areas of light rain and drizzle will remain in the forecast into the early afternoon before we potentially brighten the skies in areas during the afternoon.  That sun may be just enough to pop a shower or (non-severe) storm during the afternoon.

1Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Wednesday and will be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning.  Once this passes, expect breezy conditions with steady or slowly falling temperatures through the day.  Pack a jacket tomorrow as temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s.

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3Rainfall amounts should be in the 0.25″-0.50″ range between now and Wednesday afternoon.

We’ll dry things out and warm up as we progress through the latter portions of the work week and the weekend.  Beforehand, look for lows in the upper 30s Thursday morning.

As we look ahead, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Saturday evening.  We’ll “sure up” timing in the days ahead.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/03/damp-chilly-tuesday/

Widespread Rain This Morning Then Watching For Strong-Severe Storms This Evening…

Happy Saturday all!  Widespread rain and embedded thunder will overspread central IN as we progress through the morning hours.  Steady rain will continue through the lunchtime hour before we see a break in widespread rains.

1After a break in the rain, we’ll have to keep an eye on the potential of strong to severe storms developing this afternoon and evening (especially across southern IN).  Hail and damaging winds are of greatest concern with storms that develop, but a tornado is also possible.

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IN_swody1Another round of scattered thunderstorms will rumble across the state Sunday.

3Widespread weekend rainfall totals should fall in the 1″-1.5″ range for most, but there will also be some locally heavier totals.

4As we progress into the upcoming week, cool air will be the big weather story.  Perhaps the coolest days will be next Thursday-Friday (lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s).

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/30/widespread-rain-this-morning-then-watching-for-strong-severe-storms-this-evening/

Thursday Morning Weather Notebook…

Noisy thunderstorms (non-severe) are impacting southern ‘burbs this morning, but dry time is coming as we get into the heart of the rush hour.  This dry time will continue into the late morning hours, but renewed showers and thunder will likely fire yet again early this afternoon (in scattered fashion).

2After an unsettled few days, we’ll get a break, albeit brief, from the wet, stormy times to close the work week.  High pressure will present an increasingly sunny sky Friday, but it’ll be much cooler than today (mid 60s for highs Friday).

4As mentioned, dry times won’t last long.  Rain builds back in Saturday and lingers into Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is possible, including embedded thunderstorms.  Early rain numbers fall in the 1″-1.5″ range over the weekend.

3As we open May, attention turns to a much cooler than normal feel of things.  In fact, overnight data is particularly bullish on the chill next Thursday morning (suggests mid 30s).

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/28/thursday-morning-weather-notebook/

Another Round Of Storms This Afternoon…

Heaviest concentration of storms Tuesday was along the I-70 corridor and points south.  We think today coverage of rain and thunderstorms will be more widespread across the state…

We’re off to a cool and quiet start this morning, but think things will turn rather busy yet again as early as the early-mid afternoon hours.  Unsettled conditions will continue through the night.

Latest scans of the HRRR future-cast radar product suggests we need to monitor for high wind potential during the early to mid afternoon hours.  We’ll keep a close eye on this.

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2The high resolution NAM future-cast radar is slower, but also shows strong to possibly severe storms into central IN late tonight.

3The current SPC outlook highlights far southwestern IN for the chance of severe weather today. Don’t be surprised if this is expanded northeast with later updates today.

4Rainfall potential today-tonight should feature many neighborhoods accumulating an additional inch, with some locally heavier totals.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/27/another-round-of-storms-this-afternoon/

Active Times, My Friend…

We enjoyed a brilliant Saturday across central Indiana. Plentiful sunshine developed, as expected, after a cloudy, drizzly start in areas. Temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 60s for…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/23/active-times-my-friend/

Saturday Morning Rambles…

April is running nearly 6° below average and nearly spot-on where we should be from a precipitation perspective through the 15th.       As we move forward, the big story…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/16/saturday-morning-rambles-8/

Thundersleet and Thundersnow Possible Later Today…

While the morning is off to a frigid and quiet start, changes will begin to take place as early as late morning into the early afternoon hours.  Another disturbance will rotate through central IN this afternoon and evening and interact with the unseasonably cold air (both aloft and at the surface) to ignite convective showers.  Some of these showers, mixed at times with sleet and snow, will be accompanied by thunder.

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2Eventually, as cold air is reinforced this evening, all precipitation should transition to snow this evening into early Saturday.  While it won’t snow for everyone, scattered heavy snow bursts will be plenty capable of producing a quick coating for some neighborhoods tonight.

3Speaking of the cold, highs Saturday will remain in the 30s for most.  Yes, this is April…

4Hang in there, friends.  After another chilly week next week, changes are in the offing for late month.  Warmth is coming….eventually.  🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/08/thundersleet-and-thundersnow-possible-later-today/

Thursday Morning Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/07/thursday-morning-video-update-2/

Period Of Significant Late Season Cold Ahead…

We’ve been outlining the first (10) days of April for the potential of significant “out of season” cold for some time and confidence continues to build.  We note all three…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/25/period-of-significant-late-season-cold-ahead/

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