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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/27/video-tuesday-morning-update/
Sep 22
Hot, Dry Pattern Continues For Now; MUCH Cooler Next Week…
The remainder of the work week and this weekend will remain dry and unseasonably warm. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s through the period. Strong ridging will keep us rain-free with plentiful sunshine.
A “backdoor” cold front will approach the region from the northeast late in the weekend, but won’t have enough “umph” to push the drier, cooler air our friends across the northeast and mid Atlantic will enjoy our way.
The evolution of the pattern from an unseasonably warm, dry regime to a much cooler, autumnal feel will, undoubtedly, feature showers and thunderstorms as we transition. Modeling continues to waffle back and forth in regards to rainfall totals. As of now, we’ll highlight Monday-Wednesday with increased rain chances.
Thereafter, we turn MUCH cooler. Data suggests Tuesday-Friday features temperatures much more like we’d expect for late September. Lows in the 45-50 degree range, along with highs between 65-70 can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/22/hot-dry-pattern-continues-for-now-much-cooler-next-week/
Sep 20
September: Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…
Month-to-date, September has been a warm (+3.5 degrees) and wet (+1.17″) month across central Indiana.
The warmth continues in the days ahead, but we’re going to run much drier, overall, as strong ridging remains the dominant factor through late week.
The past (90) days have featured hefty rains across the Mid West.
Late season heat will grip most of the east over the upcoming (7) days. Note those population areas (nearly 90% of the lower 48) to experience at, or above, 80 degree heat between now and next Tuesday. Even areas into the Lakes and New England get in on the late summer feel.
In the shorter term, an isolated shower is possible this evening, but most should remain dry as the air is very dry across the region.
The upper air pattern features strong ridging over the central and east over the upcoming several days. A cold front and associated trough will deliver cooler air by the early to middle part of next week.
In between the warmth and pending cooler, more fall-like, air will be a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Modeling differs on precipitation amounts, but, as of now, heavy rains aren’t looking likely.
As mentioned, early to middle parts of next week should feature temperatures much closer to where we should be this time of year, if not a few degrees below average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/20/september-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/
Sep 15
VIDEO: Weekend Weather And Late Month Talk…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/15/video-weekend-weather-and-late-month-talk/
Sep 13
VIDEO: Two Cold Fronts This Week And Late Sept. Talk…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/13/video-two-cold-fronts-this-week-and-late-sept-talk/
Sep 12
Tracking Two Fronts This Week…
It’s a quiet and cool start to the work week across central Indiana. In fact, a couple upper 40s are showing up on the morning station plots. It’s getting to be that time of the year… (Feel free to click on the image to enlarge).
Temperatures are running slightly below average, locally, with cooler anomalies across the Northeast.
High pressure will remain entrenched over our region today and supply dry conditions and pleasant humidity levels.
Our next storm system will push in Wednesday and as the cold front sags south through the state, it will spark scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Reinforcing cool air will move in behind the front for a couple days. Lows in the lower-middle 50s with highs in the upper 70s.
As we flip the page to the weekend, it still looks rather damp Saturday as another boundary moves in. This will have more moisture to work with when compared to Wednesday and rain coverage will be more widespread. As a whole, (7) day rainfall totals should be in the 0.50″-1.00″ range for most.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/12/tracking-two-fronts-this-week/
Sep 08
Periods Of Heavy Rain Then Much Cooler…
A “wavy” frontal boundary will be located over our region through the next 36-48 hours before getting a “shove” south from a cold front Saturday.
The combination of the stationary front along with a tropical-rich air mass in place will be enough in and of itself to produce periods of heavy rain today into Saturday morning. Add in a couple of disturbances moving along the boundary and the heavy rain prospects grow even higher. A strong to severe storm also can’t be ruled out-primarily this afternoon and again Friday afternoon.
Already this morning (6:30a) we note widespread showers and embedded thunder impacting IL and northern IN.
As mentioned, the air mass is plenty “juicy” to fuel locally heavy rain through the period. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will surge north of 2″ for all of central IN later today.
While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of heavy rain will remain in our forecast today through Saturday morning. Widespread 1″-2″ totals will be common, with locally heavier totals.
High pressure will build overhead Sunday and lead to quite the change. A much cooler and drier air mass will return along with brighter skies to wrap up the weekend.
Lows in the middle 50s will be common for the city, itself, Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Upper 40s to lower 50s are a good bet away from the metro.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/08/periods-of-heavy-rain-then-much-cooler/
Sep 06
Tuesday Evening Weather Notebook…
It’s been a cool and dry start to the month of September. Through the first few days, IND is running 0.70° below normal and 0.44″ below average precipitation.
The upper ridge currently in place will deliver more late summer heat through the end of the work week. It’ll remain mostly dry, as well.
Much better rain and storm chances will have to be built into our forecast Friday into Saturday, courtesy of a cold front moving into the region.
A much cooler regime will settle into the region over the weekend. Highs behind the front in the 70s with lows in the 50s will be common- after rain potential of 1″-1.5″ for most.
A reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive the middle of the following week. Early indications suggest the second shot of fall-like air will be even cooler than this weekends’ and could feature widespread 40s at night.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/06/tuesday-evening-weather-notebook/
Sep 04
New SST CA Model Weighs In On Winter…
The updated Sea Surface Temperature Constructed Analog model is in for the winter. In short, it suggests a slow start to winter gains momentum and turns much colder as mid and late winter arrive. It’s also a stormy look, locally, and would imply big-hitter potential in the Ohio Valley.
500mb pattern
*Note how the trough becomes more established over the central and east during the January through March period.
Temperature anomalies
The consistency is remarkable on the bullish cold signal for the central and east for the January-March time frame. We note high agreement, month-over-month, on the J-M time frame being significantly cold.
Precipitation anomalies
*No doubt a stormy signal through the Ohio Valley.
Time is ticking…winter will be here before we know it! Our official annual winter outlook will be out in October.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/04/new-sst-ca-model-weighs-in-on-winter/
Sep 03
Warmth Next Week Gives Way To A Cool Mid Month…
The refreshingly cool couple days we’ve recently enjoyed will begin to give way to moderating temperatures today. Humidity levels will remain pleasant and it’ll be a great Labor Day weekend to spend time outdoors. Highs will top out around 80 today and into the middle 80s Sunday. Labor Day will feature the mercury climbing closer to the 90 degree mark. – Fitting, I suppose, for the unofficial end to summer.
Humidity levels will be on the uptick come Monday evening and Tuesday as Gulf moisture is transported northward.
It’ll be a downright hot week, as well. Temperatures will top out around 90 through the end of the short work week.
As we rumble into next weekend and the following week indications continue to point towards wetter and cooler times.
After a dry week ahead, rain and storms will come with that increased humidity next weekend.
Early numbers off the press suggest 1″-2″ rains possible next weekend.
The increased rain and storm chances signal another shift in the pattern towards a cooler one just beyond the Day 10 period. From experience, I would look for this trough around mid month to trend deeper (more significant) as time draws closer.
It’s possible the first push of widespread 40s loom around the middle of the month. Time will tell…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/03/warmth-next-week-gives-way-to-a-cool-mid-month/