The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:
- Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
- Anomalously wet across the Southeast
- Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives
Week 1:
The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country. Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).
Week 2:
The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop. We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.
Weeks 3-4
While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting. This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation. Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.
The majority of our midweek stretch looks rain-free, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we push into the weekend. Recent trends have also slowed the FROPA (frontal passage) down significantly- now perhaps not until late Sunday.
There will be dry time this weekend, but with a moisture laden air mass in place, locally heavy downpours can be expected, including rainfall potential of 1″+ this weekend for neighborhoods that get under a heavier storm.
In fact, there may be a couple of days early next week where highs struggle to reach 70° with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Very refreshing, indeed, for early June.
A new batch of showers will ride east and impact areas mainly along and south of I-70 as we move into late morning and early afternoon. While some embedded thunder is possible, severe weather isn’t expected today.
Drier and cooler air wins out for all tonight and paves way for a gorgeous weekend ahead. High pressure will support plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions. More on the weekend and next week’s weather later today in an updated 7-day!
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
An area of high pressure will be located off the Mid Atlantic coast while surface low pressure develops in the southern Plains and tracks north over the weekend. The combination of these two ingredients will help pull abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Ohio Valley. With a true Gulf connection, moisture-rich air will overspread the region this weekend. In addition to feeling truly muggy for the first time this year, this will also aid in periods of heavy rain this weekend.
From this distance, it appears like widespread 2″ to 3″ of rain will fall over the weekend, but localized heavier totals are expected where thunderstorms “train” over the same areas. While it won’t rain the entire weekend, times of wet weather will outnumber dry hours and if you live near a creek or stream, keep abreast of this developing weather situation as significant water rise is expected over the weekend.
Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.