You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/22/video-oppressive-feel-gives-way-to-strong-storms/
Jul 20
JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August
The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:
- Central hot pattern doesn’t last
- Seasonal pattern takes hold
- Heat builds across the Northeast region
Week 1:
Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August. We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.
Week 2:
It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast. The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal. With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.
Weeks 3-4:
Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest. Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/20/jma-weeklies-seasonal-pattern-to-open-august/
Jul 17
Monday Morning Rambles…
1.) July, MTD, is running slightly cooler (- 0.1°) and much wetter (+ 2.31″) than average across the region.
2.) While the radar is rain and storm-free this morning, a left over boundary, combined with daytime heating will help spark isolated to widely scattered storm coverage this afternoon.
3.) The big weather story this week will be an increasingly hot and humid feel once to mid and late week, including the weekend. While today will continue the theme of slightly cooler than average from the weekend, we’ll more than make up for the refreshing feel later this week. Highs will push to around 90° Wednesday through Sunday as the ridge expands.
4.) Despite the hot and humid feel that develops this week, it won’t last. Like so many other times this summer that heat tries to build east, the transient weather pattern will continue to prevent it from “hitting and holding.” You guessed it, as we transition from the hot conditions to cooler weather next week, rain and storm chances will be on the increase, including the potential of heavy rain. As of now, best rain and storm chances appear lined up for late week through the weekend and into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/17/monday-morning-rambles-5/
Jul 10
Active Times This Week…
The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley. Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight. Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.
A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels. Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel. Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times. With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.
Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend. Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.
When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/10/active-times-this-week/
Jul 08
Pleasant Weekend Gives Way To A Stormy Week Ahead…
It was a stormy Friday across central Indiana, including hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding. Thankfully, as we open the weekend, weather conditions are much more pleasant. The surface front that helped trigger the bumpy close to the work week has pushed south and is allowing a much more pleasant (much drier and slightly cooler) air mass to ooze into the region. With the exception of patchy fog across southern Indiana, skies are mostly sunny.
Patchy fog will burn off by 10a across southern Indiana.
A cooler and less humid feel is greeting us out the door this morning.
Pleasant weather will remain through the majority of Sunday, but we’ll begin to notice an uptick in humidity late in the day. This is a harbinger of things to come as a true tropical feel lifts back north. Factor in the increasing moisture levels (it’ll feel oppressive by mid-week) with increasing amounts of energy and instability and big storms will likely result.
A moisture-rich air mass will engulf the region much of the upcoming work week.
The core of the heat will be centered over the western half of the country next week and with a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to remain on guard for individual disturbances tracking southeast into the Mid West and Ohio Valley. These will help trigger more widespread storm coverage from time-to-time through the week. Similar to the storms yesterday, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are the biggest concerns with these storm complexes. 7-day rainfall totals through late-week will feature widespread 2″-3″ across central Indiana, including locally heavier amounts of 3″-6″ in spots where storms train. We’ll have to sure-up specific storm timing as we get closer.
As we look ahead, timing, once again, may be our friend, as modeling currently suggests a drier regime returns by next weekend.
Make it a great Saturday, friends! More later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/08/pleasant-weekend-gives-way-to-a-stormy-week-ahead/
Jul 07
VIDEO: Stormy Afternoon Ahead For Some; Active Pattern Remains…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/07/video-stormy-afternoon-ahead-for-some-active-pattern-remains/
Jul 05
“Rinse & Repeat” Pattern…
As we look deeper into mid and late July, the one item that continues to stand out in our weather pattern is a lack of any serious heat, relative to average. It’s obvious that the “hot dome” really wants to set up shop over the Rocky Mountain region and while brief “spurts” of warmer air will try to eject out towards our region, the balance of the medium and longer range looks to be dominated by a northwest flow aloft and seasonal to slightly below average conditions.
At least through mid-July, this will keep the west and Rocky Mountain region well above average and promote seasonal to cooler than average conditions, overall, for our region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/05/rinse-repeat-pattern/
Jul 03
Monday Morning Rambles…
An early look at the radar this morning shows a couple of lone storms near Decatur and Blufton. These are moving off to the east.
While we’ll maintain mention of a widely scattered thunderstorm today and Independence Day, the majority of both days will remain rain-free.
A wave of low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday and this will result in an uptick in storm coverage. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. While some localized totals could be higher, we think widespread rains of 1″-1.5″ is a good bet Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure will build in over the weekend and aid in a drier and cooler theme.
Lows will return to the 50s across central Indiana Sunday morning and refreshing (upper 50s at night and upper 70s to lower 80s during the day) air will remain with us into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/03/monday-morning-rambles-4/
Jun 30
VIDEO: Closing Out June And Heading Into July…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/30/video-closing-out-june-and-heading-into-july/
Jun 29
Thursday Morning Rambles…
1.) Temperatures are running much warmer across the Mid West and Ohio Valley this morning. In most cases, communities are 15° to 20° ahead of this time 24 hours ago. Ah, the fall-like feel was nice while we had it!
2.) With the increasing warmth and humidity will also come an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances today through Saturday. Most widespread coverage of thunderstorms should occur during the evening hours today and Friday night into Saturday morning. Drier air will try and work in Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Here’s a look at the forecast radar valid at 7p this evening.
3.) While we should dry things out Saturday afternoon into Sunday, active times will return early next week. We’ll have to fine tune timing, but the period Monday into Independence Day may feature a rather strong storm complex moving in a southeast fashion across the region. Again, details still have to be determined. While strong storms are possible at some point during the period, more dry time than wet can be expected.
4.) The latest JMA Weeklies are in and while we’ll have a more extensive post this evening on the weekly breakdown, the screaming message to us is an active period continues along with cooler anomalies setting up shop across the central, including our region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/29/thursday-morning-rambles-3/