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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/11/video-hurricane-irma-and-warmer-times-loom/
Sep 05
Evening Video Update: October-Like Chill Settles In…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/05/evening-video-update-october-like-chill-settles-in/
Sep 04
VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…
The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening. Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).
MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/04/video-severe-potential-tonight-october-like-chill-and-irma/
Sep 03
Strong Cold Front Delivers Storms And Another Surge Of October-Like Air…
Today will be dry and pleasant and most of Labor Day, itself, will follow suit. We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwest wind by afternoon and this will help boost temperatures into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.
However, once to Labor Day evening, attention will shift off to our north as a line of thunderstorms approaches. A few embedded storms within this line may reach strong-to-severe levels. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms. The Storm Prediction Center has included the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday evening.
After a mostly dry and warm Labor Day, we’ll focus on the evening hours (bracketing 6p-10p) for storms to rumble in. As mentioned, a couple of these could reach strong to severe levels.
6p forecast radar
8p forecast radar
9p forecast radar
10p forecast radar
Once the front blows through, our winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler air mass. Average highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s don’t occur until early-October. We’ll be around 30 days ahead of schedule throughout the majority of the upcoming week, as overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/03/strong-cold-front-delivers-storms-and-another-surge-of-october-like-air/
Aug 21
Chances Of Needed Rain Increasing For Central Indiana…
August, month-to-date, is running bone-dry. Officially, IND has only accumulated 0.18″ of rain, but that may be changing as early as this afternoon and evening.
We note high resolution, short-term data is becoming more aggressive with the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially, storms will impact w-central parts of the state before encompassing more of central Indiana. The following are images of what the local radar may look like at 4p, 6p, and 8p.
With leftover boundaries from early morning storms across northern parts of the state (likely will serve as a “trigger” for PM storm development), combined with a hot and muggy airmass, confidence is increasing on numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana this afternoon and evening. Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected this afternoon, but localized hefty downpours are a good bet with precipitable water values (PWATs) approaching 2″ this afternoon.
Unsettled times remain Tuesday before a much cooler regime looms for the second half of the week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/21/chances-of-needed-rain-increasing-for-central-indiana/
Aug 19
VIDEO: Cool Changes Loom Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/19/video-cool-changes-loom-next-week/
Aug 17
Thursday Morning Weather Notebook: Changes Brewing To Close August…
I. A cold front will move across the state this evening. Ahead of the front, a warm and moist air mass will remain in place and the frontal boundary will serve as a “trigger” to ignite scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening. While widespread, uniform rains aren’t anticipated, a couple of strong storms and localized downpours will develop ahead of the front.
Scattered t-storms will impact the state today.
Eastern IN is included in a Slight Risk of severe weather this afternoon.
II. After a drier close to the work week (less humid, as well), an upper level disturbance will race across the Ohio Valley Saturday. This will provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but all day rains won’t occur.
III. Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley. Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.
IV. A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August. In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night. Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/17/thursday-morning-weather-notebook-changes-brewing-to-close-august/
Aug 15
VIDEO: Storm Chances Return And We Look Ahead To Meteorological Fall…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/15/video-storm-chances-return-and-we-look-ahead-to-meteorological-fall/
Aug 13
The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…
High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week. This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine. Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.
High pressure will keep us dry through early week.
As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week. As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous. We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.
Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.
Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.
As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures. The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.
What else we’re working on: With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead. Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look. Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past. Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead… The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics. A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/13/the-week-opens-quiet-before-more-unsettled-times-return/
Aug 11
VIDEO: Another Gorgeous Weekend Awaits And We Look Ahead To September…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/11/video-another-gorgeous-weekend-awaits-and-we-look-ahead-to-september/