October has gotten off to a warm start (+ 8.4° at IND, to be exact) and that will continue this weekend as high temperatures top out between 80° – 85° Saturday.
October has gotten off to a warm start across the Mid West.
In addition to Saturday’s warmth, southwest winds will gust over 35 MPH at times- especially during the afternoon hours.
Most of Saturday will remain rain free, but we’ll need to keep an eye towards the western horizon Saturday afternoon as a frontal boundary helps kick up a line of thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes a large portion of Indiana under a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday. While widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated, a couple of embedded gusty storms are a good bet Saturday afternoon and evening.
The biggest concern with stronger storms is gusty straight line winds. While the line of storms should be relatively “skinny,” don’t be surprised if one or two of the storms requires a warning. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 9p Saturday.
We’ll turn less humid and slightly cooler for the second half of the weekend!
However, a cold front will approach the middle part of next week and while this won’t be an efficient rain producer, it will serve to deliver a return of fall-like air as we close September and open October. From a precipitation stand point, rainfall amounts look “anemic” at best over the upcoming 7-10 days.
That will flip around in big time fashion this week as a highly amplified pattern takes hold. The mean trough position will shift into the west and lead to an early taste of winter, including mountain snow. Meanwhile, our region will make up for lost time in the summer department, including highs generally in the mid to upper 80s (around 10° above average).
Daily chances of widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be with us beginning today through the majority of the upcoming week. Everyone won’t get wet, but there will be a couple of localized heavy downpours on area radars at times. As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.
Eventually, the pattern will “relax” (at least briefly) out towards Day 10. This will feature a more seasonable regime returning to the region, along with better chances of more widespread rains as a cold front approaches. We’ll also have to keep a close eye on additional tropical threats to the southeast region…
This will deliver temperature anomalies 5° to 10° above average as we traverse the back half of the month, including highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Meanwhile, our friends out west (where it’s been warm, month-to-date) will begin to experience early winter-like conditions, including high elevation snowfall across the central and northern Rockies.