The past (7) days has featured a cold turn through the central in the face of a warm October up to this point.
The upcoming few days will feature additional unseasonably chilly conditions before moderating through the second half of the week.
This will feature a hard freeze for central Indiana tonight. We dipped to the first 32° temperature of the season here at IndyWx.com HQ this morning and will likely beat that Halloween morning. Widespread upper 20s to around 30° can be expected.
This cold air is thanks to a cold front and reinforcing chill that will feature a band of showers that scoots through the state late morning into the early afternoon.
Rainfall amounts won’t be significant and feature totals between 0.10″ to 0.20″ through most of central Indiana.
Unsettled weather will return late week and through the upcoming weekend, but temperatures will moderate and return to levels that are above average. There are indications cold will push again in the 8-10 day period, but a warmer pattern will engulf our region during the medium range period and feature temperatures that will reach the 60s by Thursday and Friday.
The warmer conditions will also come with rain. A “wavy” cold front will approach late week with showers before returning north as a warm front late in the weekend. Finally, this frontal boundary will push southeast early next week with cold air returning. With the movement and stubborn nature of the front, expect a prolonged duration of unsettled conditions. It won’t rain the entire time, but we’ll keep showers in our forecast beginning Wednesday into the weekend.
II. Gusty Thursday: After a cold, calm start to our Thursday, southerly winds will become gusty late in the afternoon. This is a result of an approaching cold front that will impact the region Friday.
III. Unseasonably Cold Weekend: A cold front will pass Friday afternoon and a band of showers will accompany the frontal passage. Winds will shift to the northwest late in the day and drive in a sharply colder close to the work week. Air will grow cold enough to potentially support snow to mix in with the rain as precipitation comes to an end. Additionally, upper level energy and the colder air mass this weekend (the air will have a bite to it) could support mixed rain and snow showers Sunday. – Novelty stuff only, but those first flakes are always special to see. Nonetheless, temperatures will run well below normal. In fact, highs will be closer to our average low temperature this weekend.
IV: Reinforcing Halloween Chill: We still stand firm on the idea of warm costumes being required this Halloween as chilly reinforcements blow into town Monday night. This will result in Halloween featuring a high in the mid to upper 40s with lows Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning dipping to around freezing (upper 20s in outlying areas away from the metro). Most of Trick-or-treat hours should feature temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
In coffee shops and my travels around the great state of Indiana, I’ve overheard lots of talk centered on because October has been so warm, another lackluster snow season awaits. Let us remind you that the infamous snow season of ’13-’14 featured a very warm first half of October.
The upcoming 7-10 days will feature more of a transitional period of weather that we’ve come to know and love around these parts. Warmth will spread northeast this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front (around 80° Saturday) before falling temperatures Sunday afternoon behind the frontal passage. The chilliest air so far this season will descend upon the region early next week. That said, the chill won’t hold and another surge of above normal warmth will spread northeast by the latter parts of next week.
It should also be noted that analog data and research also would lean heavily in the cold direction to wrap up October and these findings also favor a chilly November… More on that later! Speaking of later, an updated 7-day will be posted this evening. Make it a great day!
An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week. This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place. Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground. The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.
Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures. Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far. No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.