Dec 30
Quick video update from the road this evening discussing another round of snow inbound tonight and a frigid open to 2018:
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/30/video-accumulating-snow-for-some-overnight-bitter-open-to-2018/
Dec 29
A quick-moving, but efficient clipper system will scoot across the Ohio Valley as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. This will spread a swath of accumulating snow through central and northern IN this afternoon into early Saturday morning.
We forecast snow to start flying for the city, itself, around 1p to 2p.
Snow will then encompass most of the state as we progress into the late afternoon and evening hours.
At times, we expect moderate snow to be falling across central Indiana and this will, unfortunately, make for a messy evening commute. Plan for snow covered and snow packed roads and slick conditions. Leave extra time to reach your destination.
While snow showers will continue Saturday morning, most of the accumulating snow will fall before sunrise Saturday and here’s our updated accumulation forecast:
Attention once to Saturday will shift to the problems associated with blowing and drifting snow as winds increase and temperatures tumble. Strong and gusty northwest winds will continue into early next week and not only will this lead to continued issues with blowing and drifting, but will also drive dangerously cold air into the area.
Here’s a look at our forecast lows over the next few mornings:
Not only will we have to deal with an extended stretch of subzero lows, but winds will combine to add further danger to the extreme weather. Most of central and northern portions of the state will have to deal with 25° to 35° below zero wind chill values Tuesday morning. Plan and prepare now.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/29/plowable-snow-event-gives-way-to-dangerous-cold/
Dec 27
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/27/video-early-accumulation-idea-friday-night-saturday-bitterly-cold-open-to-2018/
Dec 26
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/26/video-bitterly-cold-watching-saturday-closely/
Dec 23
In general, northern ‘burbs picked up between 1″ to 3″ of wet snow earlier this morning before drier conditions arrived for the afternoon hours. A couple of reports include Whitestown with 1.6″, Carmel with 2″, and Lebanon with 2.5″. A sharp cut-off with slushy coatings to less than 1″ made it as far south as the city, itself. Today’s event will be viewed as the “appetizer” to Christmas Eve’s “main course.”
Vigorous upper level energy will track through the Ohio Valley Christmas Eve afternoon into the evening, itself.
Snow will begin to overspread the state, especially north of the I-70 corridor during the mid-to-late morning hours and we expect a steady snow to fall across the northern half of the state throughout the majority of the day. A period of moderate to heavy snow should develop during the mid-to-late afternoon, continuing into the evening hours across central Indiana. Road conditions will begin to really deteriorate during this time frame as surface temperatures fall into the 20s.
Eventually, snow will end from west (around 8p) to east (around midnight) tomorrow night, but not before depositing a widespread swath of 3″-5″ for areas generally north of I-70. For the city, itself, we think 2″ to 3″ is a good call, with generally an inch, or less across far southern portions of the state.
Don’t be surprised if enough Christmas “magic” results in localized heavier totals with potential banding that develops tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. All in all, this will be a classic, picturesque snow event for Christmas Eve. Hoosiers will wake up Christmas morning with a fresh blanket of white.
We have additional wintry fun and games to track later next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/23/an-appetizer-to-christmas-eves-main-course/
Dec 21
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/21/video-sure-hope-you-like-winter/
Dec 20
Before we get into some of the latest thinking concerning the weather around Christmas, we want to reiterate the pending pattern change is one that we haven’t had the pleasure of “enjoying” over the past few winters. Our idea is that a prolonged significantly colder than normal pattern is with us to close 2017 and continues into (at least) the first few weeks of January. At times, and especially if we can get a healthy snowpack down, temperatures may become severely cold. Speaking of snowpack, winter storms and rumors of storms will come fast and furious in this pattern and it’ll be important you keep abreast of the latest forecast as you go about your holiday travels this year. It’ll be very, very interesting to see how the general public perceives the coming few weeks as winter conditions will be much more impactful when compared to the past few years. Needless to say, we’ve alerted our snow clients that it’s most certainly time to stock up on the coffee and other energy drinks…some long days (and nights) are likely in this pattern down the road.
Now to the shorter-term:
I.) Our first winter weather maker will arrive on the scene Saturday. Guidance today has trended colder, overall, and suggests we need to be on guard for the potential of a narrow, yet possibly heavy, band of wet snow developing on the northern side of the precipitation shield Saturday morning. As of now, central Indiana into western and central Ohio should keep close tabs on forecast developments. We’ll have to “hone in” on overall snow placement over the next 24-48 hours, but that’s the best we can do from this distance.
II.) Additional upper level energy will rotate across the Ohio Valley Christmas Eve and this, combined with arctic air pushing into the region, should maximize moisture production and lead to a period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve afternoon into early Christmas Day. This energy should feature some Christmas “magic” and be enough to provide a more widespread light accumulation across the region (when compared to Saturday).
III.) As we look forward to middle and latter parts of next week, the pattern screams potential is on the table for a more widespread, significant winter storm (Plains to the Northeast). While obviously early on in the game, the overall pattern does back up the idea presented by modeling.
The wintry hits don’t stop there, but we’ll save those details for later posts. Make it a great Wednesday evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/20/touching-base-on-wednesday-evening-busy-winter-pattern-awaits/
Dec 19
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/19/video-cooler-for-midweek-discussing-christmas-snow/
Dec 18
While the evolution of how things transpire from a snow perspective are “murky,” at best, confidence continues to run very high on the prospects of a nasty period of bitter air arriving around Christmas.
Before we dig into the cold details, the pattern is one that still screams “trouble” from a wintry perspective in the December 23rd-Christmas Eve period. We posted over the weekend of the PNA-EPO going to battle Christmas weekend, and before the cold overwhelms, a consensus of the data continues to paint an interesting scenario as resistance will be present initially from the southeastern ridge. Modeling will continue to struggle with this evolution over the next few days, but we’re hopeful we’ll begin to gain more clarity by late in the work week. Needless to say, a stripe of impactful wintry precipitation should fall in a southwest-northeast fashion given the pattern, but whether that’s to our northwest, over our region, or off to our southeast is simply impossible to call from this distance. A glance at the individual ensemble members (GEFS shown below) shows this nicely, as well. The European ensemble members also paint a similar picture.
Hang in there as we continue to sort through the data over the next few days. Once confidence increases (for or against an event), you’ll be the first to know! 🙂
Now to the ugly stuff: Bitterly cold air of true arctic origin will be dislodged southeast late week and encompass more of the country by Christmas weekend. Eventually, this arctic air will make it across the Appalachians and reach the East Coast just after Christmas.
Recent operational data (GFS and Canadian included) has suggested a sprawling high in the range of 1050mb+ descending into the eastern slopes of the northern Rockies. Such a regime would be plenty capable of spreading sub-zero temperatures east into the Ohio Valley (with or without snow on the ground). Add in a biting north wind and wind chill values would drop to levels of dangerous and deadly levels if any length of time was spent outdoors. Some of the latest data paints a picture similar to shades of the famous ’13-14 winter (20° to 30° below zero chill factor). If you have travel plans over the Christmas holiday, please plan in advance to have a winter survival kit packed and loaded. It absolutely never hurts to be prepared.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/18/arctic-hammer-drops-down-around-christmas/
Dec 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/12/18/video-gloomy-monday-colder-pattern-awaits/