Updated 01.22.23 @ 8:40a
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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-low-pressure-takes-that-textbook-track-for-a-heavy-snow-storm-here-midweek/
Jan 21
Saturday Early Afternoon Thoughts And Snowfall Forecast For Sunday And Tuesday Night – Thursday…
Updated 01.21.23 @ 1:54p
The first in a series of accumulating snow events will move in Sunday morning followed by another (heavier) event Tuesday night and Wednesday, with accumulating snow continuing late into the upcoming work week. In short, we don’t have any changes from this morning’s video discussion, but did want to add some specific snow numbers behind our ideas. First thing first and that’s Sunday:
Mostly cloudy skies this evening will lower and thicken during the overnight and snow is expected to break out across western IN between 3a and 4a, reaching the city, itself, between 5a and 6a. Snow should reach peak intensity between 7a and 10a in the city before the steadiest snow pushes east. Lighter snow is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon hours. Despite marginally cold air and relatively warm surfaces for the time of the year, slick roadways are expected Sunday morning as the snow increases in intensity. Plowing and salting will likely be required before the snow intensity diminishes from west to east Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the lower 30s while the majority of the snow falls so this will be a heavier, wetter snow than the champagne powder we dealt with pre-Christmas. Also a friendly reminder to discredit any sources trying to show you a kuchera snowfall map with this event (or the next event for that matter). These will both likely be much closer, if not even a little less, than 10:1 ratio type snow events- perfect for a snowball fight or building a snowman!
Sunday’s snowfall forecast:
A few lingering early flurries are possible Monday, otherwise the bulk of the daytime Monday and Tuesday should be precipitation free. We may even see some sun work back into the picture during this timeframe. As we push into Tuesday evening, clouds will once again lower and thicken and give way to snow lifting in from the southwest after 11p to midnight.
Low pressure will take a “textbook” track from LA Tuesday evening, west TN Wednesday morning, southeast of the OH river Wednesday afternoon and into Ohio by Wednesday evening. Long time Hoosiers know that spells snowy excitement throughout the region and sure enough, we expect an area-wide moderate to heavy snow event.
Now, this won’t be some sort of blockbuster type storm (remember, this kind of pattern doesn’t support such), but the low will be plenty strong enough to tap into the Gulf moisture and throw it north into an airmass that’s just cold enough to support another wet, heavy (paste-like) snow event Tuesday night through Wednesday. As the storm moves off to the northeast, snow will become a bit more powdery Thursday into Friday morning with some additional light accumulation expected in the colder airmass.
Tuesday night – Wednesday snowfall forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-early-afternoon-thoughts-and-snowfall-forecast-for-sunday-and-tuesday-night-thursday/
Jan 21
VIDEO: Tracking 3 Accumulating Snow Events Over The Next 5-7 Days…
Updated 01.21.23 @ 8:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-tracking-3-accumulating-snow-events-over-the-next-5-7-days/
Jan 20
VIDEO: Making Up For Lost Time?
Updated 01.20.23 @ 7:19a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-time-to-make-up-for-lost-ground/
Jan 19
February And Early March Long Range Discussion…
Updated 01.19.23 @ 6:15p
Our short-term products will continue to handle the snow threats this weekend and next week. In short, we have no changes to our thoughts on either of those from this morning. The 2nd storm has potential to be something much more significant, but we need to give it another 2-3 days before putting a forecast in concrete, especially this winter.
As for the longer range, a more seasonably cold brand of air is expected as we put a wrap on January, but I’m not willing to go further than that to suggest anything close to “bitter” cold is on deck- certainly given the time of the year. It’ll feel much colder, especially considering just how warm it’s been of late, but I just don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon, compared to normal.
Thereafter, the pattern drivers suggest a warmer than normal pattern will return. “Transitional” anyone? While I can’t say we’re looking at anomalies as great as what we’ve seen so far in January, I do think early and mid February will feature above to well above normal temperatures before colder than normal trends take hold late February and into early March.
The updated European Weeklies mirror the new JMA Weeklies and we see no reason to argue given the movement and overall alignment between the EPO, PNA, NAO, and AO.
Week 2
JMA Weeks 3/4
European Weeklies: Week 3
European Weeklies: Week 4
As we get out towards the latter part of February (around or after the 20th), the teleconnections mentioned above, that will likely promote the relatively warm conditions, will begin to turn around and drive a colder close to the month and open to March. In fact, there are signs the coldest anomalies of the entire winter (compared to average, not in the “absolute” form) will await for this period, and potentially continue into a good chunk of March, especially if the MJO amplitude continues and we add in a negative NAO. (I know, I know- remember that I’m only the messenger).
In the meantime, we also agree with the above normal precipitation pattern painted throughout the upcoming few weeks between the updated Weekly products.
In this active type pattern, despite the lack of bitterly cold arctic air, plenty of snow is likely still yet to fall this winter. In fact, despite the slow start, I wouldn’t be shocked if snowfall amounts end up being pretty dang close to seasonal averages with this type pattern (give or take a few inches). The ultimate irony will be if the bulk of that falls in March…
Much more in the morning around the Sunday and Tuesday-Wednesday snow threats!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/february-and-early-march-long-range-discussion/