Apr 07
Updated 04.07.24 @ 10:12a Pleasant conditions this morning will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky throughout the afternoon and evening and scattered storms will follow. It continues to appear…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/07/video-evening-storms-pave-way-for-improving-skies-monday-heavy-rain-event-mid-late-week/
Apr 06
Updated 04.06.24 @ 11:06a We couldn’t ask for better weather today (after that cold start). You earned it, friends! Clouds quickly return Sunday and give way to late afternoon and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/06/video-saturday-stunner-gives-way-to-sunday-storms-perfect-timing-monday-ahead-of-more-heavy-rain/
Apr 05
The upcoming “immediate term” forecast package has a little something for everyone: Good, Bad, and UGLY.
Let’s start with the “good” first, we should finally see drier air win out and get us back into the sunshine department Saturday. The trade off? Unseasonably cold conditions taking hold under those clearing skies tonight and diminishing wind. Most areas should wake up to the upper 20s come Saturday morning, but under that strong April sun angle, temperatures will zoom into the middle 50s by afternoon. Enjoy the badly needed vitamin D as it won’t stick around terribly long.
Our next storm system will deliver a round of gusty storms in here by Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunshine to start the day will give way to increasing clouds and scattered to numerous storms later in the day. We’re monitoring for the potential of a few strong-to-severe storms during this time period.
We still have our fingers crossed for a brightening sky to take hold Monday, but this isn’t a slam dunk by any means. – More of a now cast type situation if you ask us as the region will be in between systems. We’ll continue to hope for the best.
Regardless, active weather quickly returns midweek as a surface low rides northeast into the Ohio Valley. This will mean widespread rain and embedded thunder will return, and heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely.
Heaviest rain likely arrives later Wednesday into Thursday followed by a gusty and briefly colder close to next week. By this point, early indications are that the region can expect another significant rain event, including widespread 2″+ totals (we’ll hone in on those amounts as we get closer).
There’s ensemble support to back up the heavy rain idea.
Additional details to come throughout the weekend (and beyond) around these items and more.
Happy Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/friday-afternoon-rambles-close-eyes-on-mondays-cloud-cover-and-gearing-up-for-another-active-week-of-hefty-rain-storms/
Apr 05
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/
Apr 04
Updated 04.04.24 @ 7:40a A big ole upper low will move only sluggishly over the next day or two, keeping clouds, light precipitation, and chilly temperatures around. The good news?…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/04/video-trending-in-the-right-direction-as-we-open-the-weekend-but-still-have-to-get-through-a-couple-damp-chilly-days/
Apr 03
Updated 04.03.24 @ 7:40a Clouds and showers (even embedded thunder by this afternoon) will transition to wet snow tonight into Thursday morning. The wet snow will fall heavily enough to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/03/video-weather-whiplash-indeed-another-active-stretch-on-deck-by-early-next-week/
Mar 30
Updated 03.30.24 @ 5:07p
There’s not much, if anything, to change regarding the setup and anticipated outcome of the Easter Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Periods of heavy rain will get going Sunday PM and we’ll also need to watch for the threat of severe storms not only tomorrow afternoon/ evening but again Monday.
Midday models are latching onto a widespread 2”-4”+ event.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the threat area tomorrow afternoon. Large hail is greatest concern but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
All modes of severe are on the table Monday, including tornado potential once again.
If all this wasn’t enough already, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region by midweek allowing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The snow may even be heavy enough for slushy accumulations in spots.
Spring at its finest across the great Hoosier state…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/30/saturday-evening-thoughts-on-the-pending-heavy-rain-severe-event/
Mar 30
Updated 03.30.24 @ 7:16a
The combination of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary, increasingly warm and humid air, and multiple waves of low pressure riding along the aforementioned boundary will lead to several rounds of locally heavy rain and also pose a strong to severe storm risk as we go through the early stages of the new week.
Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 1.5” to 2” at times early week (a tough feat to come by this time of year). This only raises confidence in the opportunity for this setup to generate periods of heavy, and eventually excessive, rainfall.
Widespread 3”+ totals can be expected by the time all is said and done, with locally heavier amounts.
If the heavy rain event wasn’t enough, we also need to be on guard for the threat of severe storms Sunday and Monday.
In particular, it’s Monday’s risk of severe that has us most concerned, including all modes (hail, wind, and a TOR threat). We recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and make sure to have a way to receive any warnings that may be issued.
The heavy rain event will come to an end by Tuesday evening, but if we didn’t have enough to track already, we’ll add in the potential of rain to mix with wet snow Wednesday. Regardless, expect a much colder and blustery time of things as this bigger storm departs by midweek.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/30/multiple-waves-of-heavy-rain-on-deck-severe-storm-risk-as-well/
Mar 29
Updated 03.29.24 @ 6:57a
Don’t get used to any one particular pattern for any length of time over the next few weeks. “Active” will sum things up best in a single word as a transitional regime takes hold.
The NEW JMA Weeklies highlight this transitional theme best over the upcoming (4) week period.
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3/4
To no surprise, especially given the transitional nature of the pattern, the upcoming few weeks should feature above normal rainfall for a good chunk of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
We’ll also want to keep tabs on the potential of greater than average severe weather episodes, notable considering we’re almost into April. It’s a byproduct of the “topsy-turvy” look to the overall pattern.
Pattern drivers, including the EPO, back up the transitional them over the upcoming couple weeks. Reminder, negative phase favors chilly conditions and positive phases favor milder air (compared to average). This look, too, screams wet and stormy.
Bottom line, buckle up for an active storm track and associated heavier than normal rainfall over the next few weeks. Temperature regimes will feature a bit of it all, including above and below normal periods, likely all balancing out slightly above normal when all is added up.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/29/long-range-report-active-pattern-as-we-head-into-and-through-april/
Mar 28
Updated 03.28.24 @ 7:31a While it’s quiet and cold now, we’ll notice an increasingly moist airmass returning about 36 hours from now. The first of a series of waves of…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/28/video-the-setup-for-a-lengthy-period-of-moderate-heavy-rain/