Category Archives: Forecast Models

Long Range Report: Pattern Evolution Into Late April; Early May…

Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a

The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.

The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).

If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.

The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).

The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies

The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.

No Comments AO, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, NAO, PNA, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

VIDEO: Trending In The Right Direction As We Open The Weekend, But Still Have To Get Through A Couple Damp, Chilly Days…

Updated 04.04.24 @ 7:40a A big ole upper low will move only sluggishly over the next day or two, keeping clouds, light precipitation, and chilly temperatures around. The good news?…

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No Comments Client, Cut Off Low, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Plant24, Rain, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos

VIDEO: Weather Whiplash, Indeed; Another Active Stretch On Deck By Early Next Week…

Updated 04.03.24 @ 7:40a Clouds and showers (even embedded thunder by this afternoon) will transition to wet snow tonight into Thursday morning. The wet snow will fall heavily enough to…

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No Comments Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Plant24, Rain, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Wintry Mix

Saturday Evening Thoughts On The Pending Heavy Rain/ Severe Event…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 5:07p

There’s not much, if anything, to change regarding the setup and anticipated outcome of the Easter Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Periods of heavy rain will get going Sunday PM and we’ll also need to watch for the threat of severe storms not only tomorrow afternoon/ evening but again Monday.

Midday models are latching onto a widespread 2”-4”+ event.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the threat area tomorrow afternoon. Large hail is greatest concern but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

All modes of severe are on the table Monday, including tornado potential once again.

If all this wasn’t enough already, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region by midweek allowing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The snow may even be heavy enough for slushy accumulations in spots.

Spring at its finest across the great Hoosier state…

No Comments Client, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, Plant24, Severe Weather, snow, Tornadoes, Windy

Multiple Waves Of Heavy Rain On Deck; Severe Storm Risk As Well…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 7:16a

The combination of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary, increasingly warm and humid air, and multiple waves of low pressure riding along the aforementioned boundary will lead to several rounds of locally heavy rain and also pose a strong to severe storm risk as we go through the early stages of the new week.

Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 1.5” to 2” at times early week (a tough feat to come by this time of year). This only raises confidence in the opportunity for this setup to generate periods of heavy, and eventually excessive, rainfall.

Widespread 3”+ totals can be expected by the time all is said and done, with locally heavier amounts.

If the heavy rain event wasn’t enough, we also need to be on guard for the threat of severe storms Sunday and Monday.

In particular, it’s Monday’s risk of severe that has us most concerned, including all modes (hail, wind, and a TOR threat). We recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and make sure to have a way to receive any warnings that may be issued.

The heavy rain event will come to an end by Tuesday evening, but if we didn’t have enough to track already, we’ll add in the potential of rain to mix with wet snow Wednesday. Regardless, expect a much colder and blustery time of things as this bigger storm departs by midweek.

No Comments Client, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, Plant24, Severe Weather, Spring, T-storms, Tornadoes, Windy