Category: Forecast Discussion

Dec 12

Stormy Pattern Ahead For The Heart Of The Holiday Season?

A “relaxation” of the well below normal cold is on the way.

While this will support a 5-10 day period of temperatures of 5° to 10° above average (milder overnight lows, and a few days with highs at or above 50° are a good bet during the period, as well), the stage is already being set in motion for a return of colder conditions around the Christmas holiday.  While admittedly, transitional periods can be “finicky,” there’s support from other pattern drivers behind a wintry return between the 12.22 and 12.24 time period.  Furthermore, data suggests that there will be plenty of storminess to boot.

For those that love to review the operational model data as it rolls in (in some cases, up to 4 times per day), expect wild swings as the data begins to “hone in.”  Despite some of that model fluctuation, we expect the pattern to look something like this around Christmas.

We expect the mean ridge position to set up shop over the Pacific northwest.  This will result in a warmer than average regime across the west.  At the same time, the trough will be pushing back into the east. As the cold air settles back in, we expect a rather active time of things during the period.  This certainly doesn’t mean we’re talking snow storms, but it does appear likely that at least one or two systems of interest loom.  We’ll have to deal with the challenges that will come from one or both as time draws closer.

While a “transitional” pattern appears likely around Christmas, there are growing concerns of a return of sustained cold as we get into the new year.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-pattern-ahead-for-the-heart-of-the-holiday-season/

Dec 09

Nice Quiet Stretch Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Nice stretch of sunny days
  • Moderating temperatures
  • Late week storm system

Needed Vitamin D…It’s not often that we can string up consecutive sunny days in early and mid December, but that’s exactly what we’ll do this week- and we won’t complain!  With the clear, calm conditions, overnight lows will continue to plummet into the 10s before we slowly begin to moderate as we move into the middle of the week.

With the moderating temperatures will also come increasing moisture as a new storm system organizes to our southwest Wednesday night and Thursday.  Models continue to differ on specifics with respect to rainfall totals and we’ll fine tune things as we progress through the next couple of days. While late week turns unsettled, we don’t expect a wash-out any day.

Looking ahead, the longer term models continue to suggest we’re going to pull out of the predominantly cold pattern that we’ve been in with an overall milder shift in the pattern for the next couple of weeks.  There’s much debate around when the flip back to a cold pattern returns- is it in time for Christmas or closer to the New Year?

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-quiet-stretch-of-weather/

Dec 08

Cold And Quiet; Big Winter Storm To Our Southeast…

Highlights:

  • Prolonged stretch of cold, quiet weather
  • Major winter storm for the southern Appalachians
  • Next storm delivers rain late next week

Brrrrrrr…It’s another frigid early December morning across central Indiana, but there really isn’t any “exciting” weather to discuss through the early part of next week.  High pressure will supply quiet conditions through the daytime Wednesday.  We’ll notice some mid and high level cloudiness today from a winter storm that will drop historic snow amounts across the southern Appalachians tonight into Monday.  Otherwise, plentiful sunshine can be expected with slowly moderating temperatures into the new work week.

Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday afternoon and light rain will likely arrive after dark.  Our next storm system will deliver rain and gusty winds in here late week.  Though we haven’t “taken the bait” just yet, there’s the chance of some wind-whipped wrap-around snow Friday.  We’ll give it another couple model runs before building that into the forecast…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-and-quiet-big-winter-storm-to-our-southeast/

Dec 06

Snow’s On The Lunchtime Menu; Cold, But Quiet Stretch Of Weather Ahead…

Highlights:

  • Snow arrives around lunchtime
  • Cold weekend ahead
  • Increasing sunshine

Messy Afternoon Commute For Some…The day is starting quiet, but a fast moving arctic cold front will push through the state this afternoon.  Ahead of the boundary, an expanding area of precipitation will break out late morning into the early afternoon hours.  From the city and points north, most of this should fall as wet snow.  South of the city, a mixture of rain and snow is expected.  A quick 1″ of snow is likely for areas north of Indianapolis and as temperatures fall this afternoon and evening, a slick evening commute is possible.  Allow yourself extra time.

Cold air will reinforce itself behind the front tonight and through the weekend, BUT sunshine will return!  All eyes will be off to our south as a major winter storm impacts our friends across the TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians.  If you’re one of our viewers from the east TN/ western NC mountains, get to the grocery store today and plan to hunker down.  You’ll need the yardstick to measure this one when all is said and done Monday night…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snows-on-the-lunchtime-menu-cold-but-quiet-stretch-of-weather-ahead/

Dec 05

Snow Arrives Thursday And Looking Ahead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-arrives-thursday-and-looking-ahead/