Category Archives: Forecast Discussion

Unseasonably Cool; Talking Rain Chances Into Early Next Week…

We’re enjoying unseasonably cool and refreshing air this morning (to the tune of 10-15 degrees below average across central Indiana). The extent of the refreshingly cool air is impressive- spanning all the way into northern TX and parts of OK this morning!

A gorgeous day is on tap with plentiful sunshine and low humidity. Unfortunately, rain still appears to return to the picture on Wednesday. Scattered showers will be most numerous Wednesday afternoon, continuing into Thursday morning. Rainfall should average between 0.10″ to 0.25″ for most central Indiana rain gauges with a few heavier totals across eastern areas.

The cold front and upper level energy associated for delivering the Wednesday rain will swing through here early Thursday, resulting in a gusty northwesterly wind and fall-like air through the day. Highs will only top out in the mid-upper 60s and lows Friday morning will fall into the upper 40s.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather to close the work week, but as we’ve grown all too accustomed to over the past couple of months, we don’t expect prolonged dry time. Instead, our weather will turn unsettled yet again over the weekend into early next week. With a moist southwesterly air flow returning, periods of locally heavy rain can be expected in this setup.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Autumn, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Plant '19, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Cool Now, But What About Late-June?

Unseasonably cool, almost fall-like, weather will dominate our area this week, but what awaits as we move into the latter part of June?

We continue to see a highly amplified MJO and it’s forecast to swing into Phases 4-5 in the coming weeks.

Neither of these phases argues for any sort of significant or long-lasting warmth anytime over the next few weeks across our immediate region.

To no surprise, the latest long range data continues to indicate an overall seasonable to cooler than average theme to close out the month of June. The European ensemble agrees.

What about precipitation as we progress through the last couple weeks of the month? Phase 4 remains wet before things take on a drier theme during Phase 5. (It’s important to note though that if the MJO continues the overall high amplitude, unfortunately we would head into the wetter Phases 6-7 as we head towards the mid way point of summer).

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Summer

Localized Bands Of Flooding Rain Possible This Afternoon-Evening…

An upper level low will have control of our weather today. We’re seeing widespread mostly light rain this morning and that will begin to diminish as we move into the late morning and early afternoon.

We’ll then likely see a few breaks in the cloud cover and that will serve to provide just enough energy to help showers and thunderstorms redevelop by mid to late afternoon. With a juicy air mass in place (precipitable water values will exceed 2″ in spots), locally heavy rain is likely.

With weak steering flows in place this afternoon and evening, the concern we have is that localized bands of this heavy rain/ embedded thunder will “train” over the same areas, potentially leading to flash flooding in localized spots across central Indiana.

We expect these south-to-north moving bands of rain to begin to organize towards the 4p to 6p time frame, continuing into the evening and nighttime hours. Where the heavier rain bands organize, a quick 2″ to 3″ of rain is likely this evening.

More around the #AGwx report for the upcoming week will be posted later this morning!

No Comments Client, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Plant '19, Summer, T-storms