Though May has opened warmer than average (to the tune of 1 degree F above normal, month-to-date), there’s growing evidence behind a shift towards not only a cooler pattern for mid-month, but drier, as well.
MJO:
The Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move through Phase 7 (a cooler phase in May across the eastern half of the country).
PNA:
The Pacific North America pattern is forecast to remain positive into mid-May. This favors a cooler than normal south-central into the eastern portion of the country, as well.
To no surprise, we see modeling now in excellent agreement of the cooler mid-month shift that awaits on deck. Recall that this wasn’t the case last week when the GFS and EPS were in vast disagreement.
The cooler shift also will provide relief from the seemingly unending wet regime we’ve been in as of late.
Hang in there; after a warm, wet open to the month, the pattern will begin to shift around in significant fashion as we move into the weekend and beyond…
