You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-video-update-timing-out-weekend-rain-and-looking-ahead-to-a-chilly-open-to-may/
Apr 24
Looking Ahead Into May: Extended Cooler Than Normal Regime; What About Precipitation?
The 2 big teleconnections (at least that we lean heavily on this time of year) both favor our cooler than normal regime lasting into the early to middle part of May. That’s not to say, there won’t be periods of warmth getting into the region ahead of cold fronts, just that in the overall sense, temperatures should continue to run below normal into the 1st half of May.
We can thank the positive PNA and negative NAO.
After data aligned in handling the MJO movement into early May, disagreement has returned, and we’ll need to keep a close eye on this. Hopefully, by the time we release our official May Outlook (next week), agreement will return.
If, indeed, we do get things into Phase 4 (such as the GEFS shows), a warmer pattern should emerge towards the end of the 1st week of the month. Again, we’ll monitor these trends closely.
The latest European Weeklies remain cool into mid-May.
After the recent dry stretch through the majority of the month, the pattern should transition towards a more active/ wetter than normal time of things over the next 2-3 weeks.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-into-may-extended-cooler-than-normal-regime-what-about-precipitation/
Apr 23
Detailing 2 Late-Week Systems; Looking Into Early-May…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/detailing-2-late-week-systems-looking-into-early-may/
Apr 22
VIDEO: Back-To-Back Rain Storms; Overall Chilly Pattern Prevails…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-back-to-back-rain-storms-overall-chilly-pattern-prevails/
Apr 21
Early-May Rumblings…
With a little over a week left in April, thoughts continue to focus more and more on May. While our official monthly outlook will come out later next week, we did want to present our early thoughts on the first week of the month.
In short, a rather persistent upper trough is expected to dominate the eastern 1/3 of the country into the 1st week of the month. This should keep things cooler than normal, overall.
This also lines up perfectly with Phase 2 of the MJO in early May. (After a week of disagreement, model data now agrees that the MJO should “flirt” with Phase 3 before cycling back into Phase 2 early May). We note this favors cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country.
From a precipitation perspective, there aren’t particularly strong signals for wetter/ drier than average conditions with Phase 2 in May- at least for the Ohio Valley.
The positive PNA, however, can support a bit more of an active storm track through our region and that’s what model data is showing from this distance.
The positive PNA, of course, also supports cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/early-may-rumblings/