Jul 07
This evening’s video covers a potential round of thunderstorms Tuesday morning and takes a deeper look at the mid range. Yet ANOTHER unseasonably cool blast of air awaits on deck for mid-month and will provide a hint of early fall, per the EC ensemble run below for next week. This is just one piece of data amongst several pieces pointing towards a big mid-month cool down. Much more in the video update below!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/07/monday-evening-video-update-2/
Jul 06
What a weather year this has been for central Indiana. Snow and cold translated to wet and stormy as winter turned to spring. Now as summer rumbles into the supposed “dog days” we’re really left with the exact opposite. Our weather pattern will be dominated by a fast moving northwest flow over the upcoming (7) days and this spells an active and stormy open to the work week and next weekend, with an “island” of cool, pleasant weather thrown in the mix Wednesday through Friday.
The GFS operational run shows that we’ll remain locked into the rather active northwest flow pattern through the upcoming week. Note that while the trough axis moves east with time, the northwest flow remains intact.
There’s excellent ensemble support from the GEFS and EC, as well.
The end result is a (7) day stretch that remains cooler than normal when all added up, highlighted by the cooler punch of air (worthy of open windows yet again) Wed-Fri.
This also remains quite the active pattern in regards to thunderstorm complexes and rounds of locally heavy rainfall. We bracket late tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday, followed by next weekend for possible storm complexes that will make for a rather noisy time of things here. As for the severe threat, we’ll have to keep a close eye on each complex. It’s possible one or two of these could pose a damaging wind threat as they race southeast and that’s our biggest concern as of now.
When you total it all up, the upcoming (7) day period, July 7th-14th, is likely to lead to more significant rainfall over the region. The Canadian isn’t holding back, suggesting widespread 2-3″ totals. That may be a bit “bullish,” but we’ll forecast 1.5″-2″ with ease during the upcoming week, including locally heavier totals.
Quick summary:
Monday through Tuesday will be highlighted by rainy and stormy periods before we introduce a much cooler and drier regime Wednesday through Friday. Humidity builds over the upcoming weekend with additional rain and thunderstorm chances returning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/06/here-we-go-again-2/
Jul 06
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A round of scattered showers impacted portions of north-central Indiana during the early morning hours. Those showers have since pushed east and we’re now back into dry conditions (for now). We’ll watch the radar closely as outflow boundaries to our west this morning could ignite possible scattered thunderstorm redevelopment once again this afternoon. This is just the beginning of a busy few days ahead as we track multiple thunderstorm complexes that have potential to impact the region. We’ll watch late tonight and early Monday and again late Monday into Tuesday for possible more widespread storm complexes and an associated severe weather risk- mainly from damaging straight line wind potential. Once to Wednesday morning we should note a drier and cooler air mass pressing in which will set the stage for a beautiful close to the work week. Once to the weekend, a warmer and increasingly moist flow will return with renewed storm chances.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/06/busy-week-of-weather-ahead/
Jul 04
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Happy Independence Day! Canadian high pressure remains firmly in control of our weather today and for the majority of the weekend for that matter. As a result, look for plentiful amounts of sunshine and temperatures that will continue the cooler than normal regime we enjoyed Thursday. Today’s conditions, once again, will have that feeling of early fall. ENJOY! A more active weather pattern will return early next week as we potentially have to deal with a couple thunderstorm complexes in the Monday-Tuesday time period. Heavy rain and the chance of severe weather will return to your forecast Monday night into Tuesday and we’ll have more details around this as we move closer. A cooler and drier regime will build in by the middle portion of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/04/sun-filled-and-unseasonably-cool/
Jul 03
Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. 58/ 73 51/ 76 53/ 80 59/ 83 68/ 86 66/ 83 65/ 81 Light –…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/03/fall-ish-feel/
Jul 02
Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. 65/ 77 58/ 73 51/ 76 52/ 80 59/ 83 65/ 87 70/ 83 Light –…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/02/winds-of-change-on-our-doorstep/
Jul 01
It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already. Where is the summer going?! I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week. Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin! 🙂
If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall! Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)? Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…
1.) Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s. That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s. The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday. Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!
2.) Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday. By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds. Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.
3.) Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.
Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future. In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.
4.) Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set). The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…
As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event). Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.
Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time. Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one. We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.
An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns. Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…
Have a relaxing night and God Bless!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/tuesday-night-weather-rambles/
Jul 01
Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. 66/ 86 65/ 77 58/ 73 51/ 76 52/ 80 59/ 83 64/ 87 Light Light…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/not-out-of-the-woods-just-yet/
Jun 30
As we type this, a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted to include much of northwestern Indiana. The concern is that the complex of storms, already responsible for damaging weather across Iowa, gains steam as it plows east and intensifies this evening.
There’s no doubt in overall thinking that northern Indiana is at greatest risk for damaging severe weather later this evening and overnight, but we do have some concern that areas further south aren’t out of the woods. Is there risk at being wrong in the further south idea? Absolutely. However, a look over the latest model data continues to suggest there’s plenty of moisture and fuel readily available. Additionally, similar thunderstorm complexes have been known to “hook” south as they intensify racing east and short-term modeling has been known to have to play catch up at the very end in some particular cases. That’s not something we want to play around with tonight, given what the potential is. Will potential become reality here across central Indiana? Big question at the moment, but one can’t be too careful with this particular situation as a rather widespread damaging wind event should expand in the coming hours. Nowcasting will be key. Should central Indiana get in on the stormy action it would be late this evening and overnight- midnight-ish, and after, for most.
Our best educated projection at this juncture would place north-central Indiana (a line from Crawfordsville to Muncie) and points north under the greatest risk for potential severe weather late tonight. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with this complex tonight. Know that we’ll keep a close eye on things moving forward and suggest setting the weather radio on alert mode before heading off to bed this evening. As always, have a means to get watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/more-on-tonights-severe-threat/
Jun 30
We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today. The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex. Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.
The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL. All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.
The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.
This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.
Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana. Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.
Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region. In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region. Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.
Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.
Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening. The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.
Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state. While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region. More later this afternoon!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/
